Clear thinking: structured analytic techniques and strategic foresight analysis for decisionmakers
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cham
Springer
[2024]
|
| Ausgabe: | 1st ed. 2024 |
| Schriftenreihe: | Professional practice in governance and public organizations
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | xix, 243 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme, Karten |
| ISBN: | 9783031487651 |
| ISSN: | 2731-9784 |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nam a2200000zc 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV049660283 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 20240529 | ||
| 007 | t | ||
| 008 | 240422s2024 a||| |||| 00||| eng d | ||
| 020 | |a 9783031487651 |c hbk |9 978-3-031-48765-1 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)1437840139 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)BVBBV049660283 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e rda | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 049 | |a DE-355 | ||
| 082 | 0 | |a 327.116 |2 23 | |
| 084 | |a MF 9500 |0 (DE-625)122811: |2 rvk | ||
| 084 | |a PSY 000 |2 stub | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Pherson, Randolph H. |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)1230336036 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Clear thinking |b structured analytic techniques and strategic foresight analysis for decisionmakers |c Randolph H. Pherson, Ole Donner, Oliver Gnad |
| 264 | 1 | |a Cham |b Springer |c [2024] | |
| 264 | 4 | |c © 2024 | |
| 300 | |a xix, 243 Seiten |b Illustrationen, Diagramme, Karten | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 0 | |a Professional practice in governance and public organizations | |
| 650 | 4 | |a International Security Studies | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Governance and Government | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Cognitive Psychology | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Political Leadership | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Political History | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Security, International | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Political science | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Cognitive psychology | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Political leadership | |
| 650 | 4 | |a World politics | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Donner, Ole |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Gnad, Oliver |d 1969- |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)1146031882 |4 aut | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Erscheint auch als |n Online-Ausgabe |z 978-3-031-48766-8 |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m Digitalisierung UB Regensburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035003548&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Inhaltsverzeichnis |
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1805082174390534144 |
|---|---|
| adam_text |
Contents 1 Setting the Stage. 1.1 Overview of Chapters. 1.2 The Role of Structured Analytic Techniques. 1 3 4 2 Understanding How We Think: System 1 and System 2. 2.1 System 1 as a Source of Systemic Errors. 2.2 How We Get It Wrong: Biases, Heuristics, and Traps. 2.3 How Structured Techniques Can Mitigate These Cognitive Pitfalls. 2.4 Five Habits of the Master Thinker. 5 9 10 13 18 3 Conceptualizing Your Topic. 3.1 Five Characteristics of a Good Question. 3.2 Evaluate Your Sourcing. 3.3 Selecting Sources. 21 24 25 28 4 Blackout in Berlin!. 29 4.1 Blackout in the German Capital. 30 4.2 The Investigation: What Happened?. 41 4.3 Key Findings and the True Story.
51 5 Terror in Stockholm. 5.1 Palme’s Murder: Political Background. 5.2 Sequence of Events and the Crime Scene. 5.3 Profiling Alias “Operative Case Analysis”. 5.4 Investigating Political Conspiracies and Motives. 53 56 59 66 76 6 Conflict or Collaboration in the Arctic?. 85 6.1 What Drivers Will Shape the Future of the Arctic?. 86 6.2 New Approaches to Natural Resources. 93 6.3 The Main Players. 103 6.4 Indicators Generation and Validation. 125 7 Optimizing the Impact of Your Product. 131 7.1 Organizing Your Product. 133 7.2 Determine the AIMS of Your Product. 134 xi
Contents xii 7.3 7.4 7.5 8 Use a Checklist to Get Started.141 Refining Your Draft.143 One More Look. 145 Outlook. 147 Appendix A: Selected Cognitive Biases, Misapplied Heuristics, and Intuitive Traps. 148 Appendix B. Five Families of Structured Analytic Techniques.157 Appendix C. Worldwide Threat Assessment. Cyber Threats. 234 Glossary of Commonly Used Terms. 239 Recommended Readings. 241 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Pherson, Randolph H. Donner, Ole Gnad, Oliver 1969- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)1230336036 (DE-588)1146031882 |
| author_facet | Pherson, Randolph H. Donner, Ole Gnad, Oliver 1969- |
| author_role | aut aut aut |
| author_sort | Pherson, Randolph H. |
| author_variant | r h p rh rhp o d od o g og |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV049660283 |
| classification_rvk | MF 9500 |
| classification_tum | PSY 000 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1437840139 (DE-599)BVBBV049660283 |
| dewey-full | 327.116 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 327 - International relations |
| dewey-raw | 327.116 |
| dewey-search | 327.116 |
| dewey-sort | 3327.116 |
| dewey-tens | 320 - Political science (Politics and government) |
| discipline | Politologie Psychologie |
| edition | 1st ed. 2024 |
| format | Book |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>00000nam a2200000zc 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV049660283</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20240529</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">t</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">240422s2024 a||| |||| 00||| eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">9783031487651</subfield><subfield code="c">hbk</subfield><subfield code="9">978-3-031-48765-1</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)1437840139</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)BVBBV049660283</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">rda</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-355</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="082" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">327.116</subfield><subfield code="2">23</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">MF 9500</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-625)122811:</subfield><subfield code="2">rvk</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">PSY 000</subfield><subfield code="2">stub</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Pherson, Randolph H.</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)1230336036</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Clear thinking</subfield><subfield code="b">structured analytic techniques and strategic foresight analysis for decisionmakers</subfield><subfield code="c">Randolph H. Pherson, Ole Donner, Oliver Gnad</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Cham</subfield><subfield code="b">Springer</subfield><subfield code="c">[2024]</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="c">© 2024</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">xix, 243 Seiten</subfield><subfield code="b">Illustrationen, Diagramme, Karten</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">n</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">nc</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="490" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Professional practice in governance and public organizations</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">International Security Studies</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Governance and Government</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Cognitive Psychology</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Political Leadership</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Political History</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Security, International</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Political science</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Cognitive psychology</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Political leadership</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">World politics</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Donner, Ole</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Gnad, Oliver</subfield><subfield code="d">1969-</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)1146031882</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="776" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Erscheint auch als</subfield><subfield code="n">Online-Ausgabe</subfield><subfield code="z">978-3-031-48766-8</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="2"><subfield code="m">Digitalisierung UB Regensburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment</subfield><subfield code="q">application/pdf</subfield><subfield code="u">http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035003548&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA</subfield><subfield code="3">Inhaltsverzeichnis</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | DE-604.BV049660283 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-20T07:28:28Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9783031487651 |
| issn | 2731-9784 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-035003548 |
| oclc_num | 1437840139 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-355 DE-BY-UBR |
| owner_facet | DE-355 DE-BY-UBR |
| physical | xix, 243 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme, Karten |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateSearch | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Professional practice in governance and public organizations |
| spelling | Pherson, Randolph H. Verfasser (DE-588)1230336036 aut Clear thinking structured analytic techniques and strategic foresight analysis for decisionmakers Randolph H. Pherson, Ole Donner, Oliver Gnad Cham Springer [2024] © 2024 xix, 243 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme, Karten txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Professional practice in governance and public organizations International Security Studies Governance and Government Cognitive Psychology Political Leadership Political History Security, International Political science Cognitive psychology Political leadership World politics Donner, Ole Verfasser aut Gnad, Oliver 1969- Verfasser (DE-588)1146031882 aut Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-3-031-48766-8 Digitalisierung UB Regensburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035003548&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Pherson, Randolph H. Donner, Ole Gnad, Oliver 1969- Clear thinking structured analytic techniques and strategic foresight analysis for decisionmakers International Security Studies Governance and Government Cognitive Psychology Political Leadership Political History Security, International Political science Cognitive psychology Political leadership World politics |
| title | Clear thinking structured analytic techniques and strategic foresight analysis for decisionmakers |
| title_auth | Clear thinking structured analytic techniques and strategic foresight analysis for decisionmakers |
| title_exact_search | Clear thinking structured analytic techniques and strategic foresight analysis for decisionmakers |
| title_full | Clear thinking structured analytic techniques and strategic foresight analysis for decisionmakers Randolph H. Pherson, Ole Donner, Oliver Gnad |
| title_fullStr | Clear thinking structured analytic techniques and strategic foresight analysis for decisionmakers Randolph H. Pherson, Ole Donner, Oliver Gnad |
| title_full_unstemmed | Clear thinking structured analytic techniques and strategic foresight analysis for decisionmakers Randolph H. Pherson, Ole Donner, Oliver Gnad |
| title_short | Clear thinking |
| title_sort | clear thinking structured analytic techniques and strategic foresight analysis for decisionmakers |
| title_sub | structured analytic techniques and strategic foresight analysis for decisionmakers |
| topic | International Security Studies Governance and Government Cognitive Psychology Political Leadership Political History Security, International Political science Cognitive psychology Political leadership World politics |
| topic_facet | International Security Studies Governance and Government Cognitive Psychology Political Leadership Political History Security, International Political science Cognitive psychology Political leadership World politics |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035003548&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT phersonrandolphh clearthinkingstructuredanalytictechniquesandstrategicforesightanalysisfordecisionmakers AT donnerole clearthinkingstructuredanalytictechniquesandstrategicforesightanalysisfordecisionmakers AT gnadoliver clearthinkingstructuredanalytictechniquesandstrategicforesightanalysisfordecisionmakers |