Russo-Ukrainian war: implications for the Asia Pacific
"Russo-Ukrainian War: Implications for the Asia Pacific explores the implications of the Russo-Ukrainian war for American and Chinese engagement in the Asia Pacific. It interprets Russia's invasion of Ukraine which began on February 24, 2022 as part of a complex double game where the Kreml...
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| Zusammenfassung: | "Russo-Ukrainian War: Implications for the Asia Pacific explores the implications of the Russo-Ukrainian war for American and Chinese engagement in the Asia Pacific. It interprets Russia's invasion of Ukraine which began on February 24, 2022 as part of a complex double game where the Kremlin and Washington simultaneously spar, bluffing for high stakes despite catastrophic risks in the name of lofty ideals, while pursuing expedient default agendas. Both sides champion virtuous global orders compatible with their tastes and objectives. Washington seeks to compel Moscow to abide by its rules and vice-versa. The immediate impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the Asia Pacific has been to confirm Chinese President Xi Jinping's perception that Washington is committed to low-cost, regime-changing Cold War with China to preserve its status as the world's preeminent superpower. Washington is willing to increase hard power defense spending modestly to tackle the Taiwan and South China Sea issues, but will not compete with China in an arms race, curtail productivity stifling government over-regulation and social spending or curb China's abusive state trading. Emboldened by what Washington considers America's successes in the Russo-Ukrainian proxy war, American President Joe Biden plans to reinforce military spending with attitude management campaigns, moral suasion and coalitions of the willing including the North Atlantic Treaty Organization - efforts to spark Chinese color revolution and regime change. Biden diplomatically calls his policy Cold Peace, but his actions bespeak Cold War. Amid the power contestation among the United States, Russia and China, it is naïve in the contemporary world to suppose that the three major powers can permanently subjugate each other. Wise leadership requires satisficing for the attainable good rather than striving for the delusional best"-- |
| Beschreibung: | xxxv, 311 Seiten 3 Diagramme, 5 Karten 24 cm |
| ISBN: | 9789811274879 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Russo-Ukrainian war |b implications for the Asia Pacific |c Steven Rosefielde (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, USA) |
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| 505 | 8 | |a Part I Russo-American Partnership -- Cold War World Order -- New Thinking -- Partnership -- Economic Miracle -- Part II Estrangement -- Rearmament -- NATO Expansion -- Revolution of Dignity -- Annexation (Crimea) -- Part III Confrontation -- Minsk II Protocol -- Economic Sanctions -- Cold Peace -- Part IV War Path -- Polarization -- Hotspots -- Flash Point -- Revealed Preference -- Part V Russo-Ukrainian War -- Proxy War -- Cold War -- Just War -- Pristine War -- Color Revolution -- Crusade -- Nuclear War -- Next Time Will Be Different -- Part VI Battle for the Asia Pacific -- Market Communism -- Technology Transfer -- Military Modernization -- Taiwan -- Trade -- Sino-American Quandary -- Prospects | |
| 520 | 3 | |a "Russo-Ukrainian War: Implications for the Asia Pacific explores the implications of the Russo-Ukrainian war for American and Chinese engagement in the Asia Pacific. It interprets Russia's invasion of Ukraine which began on February 24, 2022 as part of a complex double game where the Kremlin and Washington simultaneously spar, bluffing for high stakes despite catastrophic risks in the name of lofty ideals, while pursuing expedient default agendas. Both sides champion virtuous global orders compatible with their tastes and objectives. Washington seeks to compel Moscow to abide by its rules and vice-versa. The immediate impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the Asia Pacific has been to confirm Chinese President Xi Jinping's perception that Washington is committed to low-cost, regime-changing Cold War with China to preserve its status as the world's preeminent superpower. Washington is willing to increase hard power defense spending modestly to tackle the Taiwan and South China Sea issues, but will not compete with China in an arms race, curtail productivity stifling government over-regulation and social spending or curb China's abusive state trading. Emboldened by what Washington considers America's successes in the Russo-Ukrainian proxy war, American President Joe Biden plans to reinforce military spending with attitude management campaigns, moral suasion and coalitions of the willing including the North Atlantic Treaty Organization - efforts to spark Chinese color revolution and regime change. Biden diplomatically calls his policy Cold Peace, but his actions bespeak Cold War. Amid the power contestation among the United States, Russia and China, it is naïve in the contemporary world to suppose that the three major powers can permanently subjugate each other. Wise leadership requires satisficing for the attainable good rather than striving for the delusional best"-- | |
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| 653 | 0 | |a Diplomatic relations | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Contents Preface v About the Author ix Executive Summary xi List of Figures, Tables, and Maps xxi xxiii Introduction Part I Russo-American Partnership 1 Chapter 1 Cold War World Order Chapter 2 New Thinking 15 Chapter 3 Partnership 31 Chapter 4 Economic Miracle 45 Part Π Estrangement 3 51 Chapter 5 Rearmament 53 Chapter 6 NATO Expansion 67 Chapter 7 Revolution of Dignity 71 Chapter 8 Crimean Annexation 77 xvii
xviii Russo-Ukrainian liar: Implications for the Asia Pacific Part III (Confrontation 87 Chapter 9 Minsk II Protocol 89 Chapter 10 Economic Sanctions 95 Chapter 11 Cold Peace 119 Part IV War Path 131 Chapter 12 Polarization 133 Chapter 13 Hotspots 139 Chapter 14 Flash Point 149 Chapter 15 Revealed Preference 163 Part V Russo-Ukrainian War 171 Chapter 16 Proxy War 173 Chapter 17 Cold War 179 Chapter 18 Just War 185 Chapter 19 Pristine War 189 Chapter 20 Color Revolution 193 Chapter 21 Crusade 199 Chapter 22 Nuclear War 203 Chapter 23 Next Time Will Be Different 209 Part VI Battle for the Asia Pacific 213 Chapter 24 Market Communism 215 Chapter 25 Technology Transfer 235 Chapter 26 Military Modernization 243 Chapter 27 Taiwan 251 Chapter 28 Trade 267
Contents xix Chapter 29 Sino-American Quandary 271 Chapter 30 Prospects 277 Conclusion 281 Appendix A: Bergson ’s Systems Function 289 Appendix В: Russian Economic Performance and Prospects 295 Index 299
Index A 2018 Armenian Revolution, 144 Abkhazia, 139 Academies of Sciences, 238 age of cyber disinformation, 180 airborne assault on Taipei, 252 air-sea-land battle in the South China Sea, 253 Amalrik, Andrei, 22 America and NATO reject thermonuclear war with the Kremlin, xxiv America loses the Russo-Ukrainian proxy war, 273 American and NATO military assistance to Ukraine, xxv American and NATO security assistance to ASEAN, 272 American-assisted color revolution, xxiii American co-sovereignty over Kremlin’s foreign and domestic policy, xxiv American hegemony, 69 American left, 135 American rule of law, xxvii America’s intentions are benign, xxvi America’s nuclear use policy, 253 America’s relative military decline, 254 America’s technological edge, 278 America’s willingness to respect Kremlin sensibilities, xxvi Andropov, Yuri, 6, 11,21 annexation of Crimea, ΊΊ, 119, 149 annexation of four Ukrainian oblasts — Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, 80 anti-access and area denial, 257 anti-war protest, 180 Armageddon, 182 armed assistance, 193 Armenia, 140 arms race, 61, 282 arms race with America, 255 arms race with China, 277 Article 2 of the United Nations Charter, 168 Article 5, 134 Asia Pacific, vi, 215, 243, 253, 255, 282 Asia Pacific naval forces, 273 Asia Pacific weapons procurement, 252 299
300 Russo-Ukrainian H ar: Implications for the Asia Pacific Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), 254, 260 attitude management campaigns, moral suasion, coalitions, 283 attitude swings, 278 axis of evil, 60 Azerbaijan, 140 В 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, 168 Balkans, 140 Baltic corridor, 69 Baltic independence, 25 Bashar al-Assad, 141 Beijing did not lose the Cold War, xi Beijing’s demands for Taiwan’s prompt reunification, xxvii Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), 272 Bergson, Abram, 104,289, 291-292 Berlin Crisis, 4, 9 best is the enemy of the good, xxviii, 283 Biden-Blinken showdown, 153 Biden, Joseph, xii-xiii, xxv, xxvii, 61, 120, 126, 149, 151, 153, 163, 165-166, 173, 203-204, 251, 255, 272, 282 Biden’s bluff, 173 Biden’s prohibition of high-tech computer chips to the People’s Republic, xxvii Biden’s technology “choke”, 272 Blank, Stephen, 61 Blinken, Antony, xiii, 5, 11, 149, 151, 153,173,255 blockade Taiwan, 254 bloody battles for peace and friendship, xii boomerang effects, 103, 180 borderization strategy, 140 botching Russia’s post-Soviet transition, xxvi Braw, Elizabeth, 254 Brezhnev Doctrine, 4, 9 Brezhnev, Leonid, 16 brink of hot war, xxv building regional military alliances (horizontal escalation), 255 Bush, George H. W, 11, 16, 21, 31, 35,205 C capabilities for counter-intervention and power projection, 245 catastrophic transition, 33 catching up to Portugal, 48 Catherine the Great, 7 chemical and biological research, 246 chemical and biological weapons, 203 Chiang Kaishek, 4 China, 278 China as America’s number one superpower rival,
243 China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner, 260 China’s abusive state trading, 283 China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, 267 China’s armed forces, 272 China’s Communist Party monopoly, 278 China’s economic growth, 215 China’s Five-Year Plan, 219 China’s Gini coefficient, 221 China’s global military activities, 247 China’s influence in Southeast Asia, 253 China’s market communism, 218 China’s market communism inegalitarianism, 221
Index China’s market communist system, 215, 216 China’s military arms race, 252 China’s military modernization, 253 China’s naval forces, 254 China’s predatory state-trading practices, xiii China’s state trading, 267 China’s state trading to pirate technology, 271 China’s status as a Marxist-Leninist regime, 219 China’s successful military modernization, xxvii China’s surplus, 268 China’s transition, xi China’s unstoppable ascent is reality, 272 China’s workably competitive markets, 225 China’s WTO non-compliance, 267 China to catch up with Thailand, 224 Chinese Academy of Sciences, 235-236,239 Chinese and Russian Academies of Sciences remain bureaucratic, 236 Chinese and Russian multinational firms, 237 Chinese color revolution, xiii, 272 Chinese color revolution and regime change, 283 Chinese Communist success story, 219 Chinese economy’s commanding heights, 220 Chinese hypersonic missile, 262 Chinese market communism is meritocratic, 278 Chinese nuclear-warfare development, 262 301 “choke” Beijing’s access to high-tech computer chips, 272 Churchill, Winston, v Clinton, Bill, 5, 16, 31, 35, 48, 209, 211 Clinton, Hillary, 134 Clinton’s yes man, 278 cluster munitions, 190 CMEA, 5,21 coalition of the willing, 273 coercing Russia to rescind Crimea’s annexation, xii coexistence, 282 Cold Peace, xii-xiii, xxvii, 71, 77, 99, 126, 151, 166, 175, 193,271, 277-278, 282-283 Cold War, vi, xii-xiii, xxiv, 4-6, 20, 37, 99, 151, 163,209, 271,278, 283 Cold War aggression, 193 Cold War game, 182 Cold War interlude of 2014-2022, 139 Cold War rules, 173 Cold War sanctions, 225 Collective
Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), 124 color revolution, xxiii, 3, 48, 60, 72, 77, 81, 152, 163, 177, 180, 185, 193, 210 color revolutionary wars, xxiv color revolution in Belarus, 181 Comecon (the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance), 6, 10, 26, 104 common European home, 61, 182 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), 10, 181 communism, 5 communism with Chinese characteristics, 219 communist command economy, xii
302 Russo-Ukrainian Har: Implications for the Asia Pacific communist managers and entrepreneurs, 217 confidence building, xxvi, 119, 136 confidence-building measures, vi conventional and nuclear forces in the Asia Pacific, 251 Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE), 120 Cooper, Julian, 54-55, 60 coordinating committee for multilateral export controls, 104, 107 correlation of forces, 59, 149, 251-252, 256, 267, 272, 278 co-sovereign influence in Ukraine, xii, 281 co-sovereignty, 72, 136, 152-153, 177, 186, 272, 277 co-sovereignty zones, 71 Cossack Mace, 151 coup d’etat against Yanukovych, 78 coup d’état in August 1991, 17 CPC as freehold lease grantor, 218 CPC has not abandoned the underclass, 223 CPC is also the arbiter of lease disputes, 218 CPC is China’s sovereign, 218 CPC manages exports and imports, 268 CPC monopoly on political power, 219 CPC privileges emerging professional and military elites, 224 CPC sets the rules of private leaseholds, 220 CPC’s four modernizations program, 216 CPC’s state monopoly on freehold property, 218 CPC turnpike, 218 credible military deterrence, xxvi credible nuclear deterrence, 253 Crimea, 149, 181 crime against humanity, 153 Crimean de-annexation, 95 Crimea’s annexation, 79 crusade, 199-201 Cuban Missile crisis, 4 Cultural Revolution, 217 cyber and disinformation warfare, 186 cyber technologies, 237 cyberwarfare, 238 D de-annexation of Crimea, 99 decapitating assault on Kyiv, 174 declaration of economic war, 99 Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area Agreement, 200 de-globalizing drift, 182 democratic centrism, 19 democratic
deficit, 225 democratic free enterprise, xii democratic free enterprise ideal, 225 democratic free enterprise ideology, 210 demokratizatsia (democratization), 16-17, 19,21 Deng’s liberalization agenda, 224 Deng’s revision of MarxistLeninism, 216 Deng Xiaoping, 18, 33, 216-217, 236 Deng Xiaoping’s experiment in market socialism, 224 de-Russification, 153 der Wille zur Macht, 271 developments in the PLA’s modernization and reform, 244 direct foreign investment, 236 dominant military presence in the Asia Pacific, 278 Doomsday possibilities, 204 doublespeak, 165
Index Eastern Orthodox Christian minority, 5 East European satellites, 16 East-West hotspot, 140 eclipsing American superpower, 278 economic and trade agreement between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China, 267 economic genocide, 38 economic sanctions, xxvii, 95-96, 100, 102, 106-107, 120, 149, 177, 182, 186,210,216, 273,281,295 economic transition, 283 economic war, 102, 164, 168, 278 embargoes, 100 embargo on Russian oil, 180 ethnic cleansing, 153 EU expansion, 21 Eurasian economic union, 141 Euromaidan, 77, 81 Euromaidan events, 78 European deterrence initiative, 68 European Union (EU), xi, 5, 35 European Union-Ukraine Association Agreement, 200 EU sanctions against Russia, 96 evil empire, xii, 20, 133-134, 200, 282 F 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), 226 factional intra-Ukrainian struggle, xxiv first use of nuclear weapons, 205 flashpoint, 142, 149 flawed deterrence planning in the Asia Pacific, 256 force projection, 69 foreign joint venture firms, 237 303 foreign joint ventures, 220 foreign technology acquisition, 248 Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation, and Security, 35, 39 Fourth Industrial Revolution (FIR), 237,239 freehold lease grantor, 218 freehold ownership rights, 216 freehold property, 226 frosty lethal Cold War in Europe, xxv frozen conflict, 278 G Gaidar-G-7 transition program, 34 Gaidar, Yegor, 38 gas station with nukes, 182 Georgia, 139 global financial crisis, 53 global financial crisis of 2008, 100 globalist case for free trade, 103 global order, 225 global supremacy, 225 goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan period
(2021-2025), 219 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 4, 6, 9, 11, 15-16, 18, 20-22, 24, 26, 31, 278 Gosplan, 17 Grand Bargain, 5, 31, 33, 210 grey zone aggression, 254 grey-zone events, 193 grey zone power seeking, 119 guanxi, 217, 226 guns and butter, 59, 61 Gurvich-Prilepskiy, 101 H hard power, 72 hard power defense spending, 282 Helsinki Final Act, 120, 127 hidden inflation, 16 high-tech chip export restrictions, 273
304 Russo-Ukrainian War: Implications for the Asia Pacific hi-tech American military technology, xiii, 283 Hitler, Adolf, vi, 3 Holy Russia, 135 hotspots, 142 hot war, 163, 271 hot war between NATO and Russia, 164 Hungarian Revolution, 4, 9 Hungary, 140 hybrid warfare, 237, 239 hyper-deficit spending, 201 hyper-depression, 32 hyper-inflation, 32 I idea of the West, 181 impoverished superpower, 17 incremental aggression in the Asia Pacific, 252 indomitable will, 271 industrially hollowed-out West, 278 intellectual property, 239 invasion of Taiwan, 253 investment, technology transfer, 99 iron curtain, 4-5, 133 irredentist vendettas, 61 Islamic State of Iraq, 141 Ivan the Great (Ivan III), 3, 7 Ivan the Terrible, 136 J Jackson-Vanik amendment, 104, 106 Jackson-Vanik controls, 95 J-curve economic miracle, 32 “J-curve” economic transition promises, 281 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), 166 joint ventures, 238 jus ad bellum, 185, 187, 203, 282 jus ad bellum battles, 203 jus in bello, 189,204, 282 jus in bello rules, 203 just war, 185, 203 just war against Russia, 204 К katastroika, 18 Kennan, George F., 48 Khasbulatov, Ruslan, 34, 211 Khrushchev, Nikita, 4, 9, 16-17 Kim Il-sung, 252 Koestler, Arthur, 59 Kogan, Eugene, 55 Korean peninsula, 278 Kosovo War, 36 Kosygin, Aleksei, 16-17 Kremlin re-empowerment, 210 Kremlin’s arms modernization program, 120 Kremlin’s duplicity, 210 Kremlin’s fears and complexes, 60 Kremlin’s special military operation, xxiv-xxv L Lavrov, Sergei, 151-153 lawful annexation of Crimea, 185 leader of the free world, xi leasehold property, 226
leasing is a black box, 220 legitimate form of self-defense, 187 Lenin, Vladimir, 31 Lenovo, 238 lethal retaliation, 193 liberal communism, 20 Liberman, Evsei, 17 Libya, 141 Lisbon Protocol to the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, 39 little green men, 82
Index 305 low-cost Cold War, 277 low-cost, regime-changing Cold War with China, 282 Luhansk and Donetsk, xii, 149, 181 Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, 174 Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea, 164-166, 200, 204, 273,277, 281-282 Lukashenko, Alexander, 142 Μ Madrid Summit, 121-122 Magnitsky Act, 107 Maidan events, 72, 119 Maidan Revolution, 73 Malaysia Airlines flight MH-17, 97 Mao’s planned economy, 216 Mao Zedong, 4, 252 market communism, 215-217 market communism serves the party first, 225 markets with Chinese Communist characteristics, 216 Marxist full communism, 219 Marxist-Leninist planned economy, 216 Matlock, Jack, 25, 41 McFaul, Michael, 10, 81-82, 210 Mersheimer, John, 126 Mikhailov, Viktor, 63 military assistance program for Ukraine, 150 military imbalance between China and Taiwan, 257 military modernization drive in 2015, 281 military pressure, 283 military superiority in the Asia Pacific, 253 military technological edge, 272 Minsk I and Minsk II Protocols, 89 Minsk II agreement, 80 mobilization capacity of the Soviet System, 205 modernizing the People’s Liberation Army, 243 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, xxiv, Ί, 20 Molotov-Ribbentrop Soviet-German “non-aggression” pact, 3 Muammar al-Gaddafi, 141 multi-polarity, 182 Munich Security Conference, 26 Muscovite rent-granting system, 59 mutual assured destruction (MAD), 203-204, 258 mutually assured mass destruction, 253 myth of China’s unstoppable ascent, 272 N Nagorno-Karabakh, 140 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, 140 NATO, xi, xxiv-xxv, 4-6, 8, 12, 19, 21,37, 67, 68-69, 119-122, 134, 13 9-140, 142, 149, 179, 181, 185-186,
200-201, 204, 209-210, 283 NATO accession, 35, 273 NATO bombed the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, 36 NATO coalition to conquer Russia, 282 NATO expansion, xii, 26, 31, 36, 48-49, 53, 77, 95, 180,281 NATO global reach, xxv NATO-led KFOR, 35 NATO membership, 21 NATO Readiness Action Plan, 120 NATO Response Force, 120, 122 NATO security guarantees, 281 NATO’s Readiness Program, 122
306 Russo-Ukrainian War: Implications for the Asia Paciflc NATO-Ukraine Action Plan, 67 NATO-Ukraine military exercises, 151 naval blockades are rarely decisive, 254 Newton, Isaac, 291, 293 new-wave Cold War clash of superpower titans, xii next time will be different, 209 no default plan, 272 no final defeat, 278 non-lethal economic, geopolitical, and diplomatic jousting, xxvii non-negotiable demands, 271 Nord Stream 2, 158 Normandy Format, 92 North Korea, 252 novoe myslenie (new thinking), 4, 16-17, 19, 21 Novorossiya, 80, 139, 142, 176 nuclear brinksmanship, 134 nuclear capabilities, 246 nuclear monopoly, 203 nuclear risk, 204 nuclear stockpiles, 205 nuclear threshold, 204 nuclear weapons, 203 Nuland, Victoria, 75 Nye, Joseph, 252 О Obama, Barack, 48, 152 Obama-Biden, 6 omnipotent, unipolar superpower option, 282 One China, 272 One China policy, 274 one country, two systems, 254, 261 Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), 37, 89 OSCE principles, 168 ostracize Taipei’s participation in global institutions, 254 P Pacific Air Sea Battle plan, 272,275 pacing strategy to maintain military superiority in the Asia Pacific, 255 Pareto efficient systems, 290 Pareto optimum, 201 Pareto preferred, 199, 201 Pareto, Vilfredo, 293 partitioning Ukraine, 176 partnership for peace, xii-xiii, 11,21, 35-36, 39, 68,71,210, 267, 277-278,281-283 partnership for peace agreement, 209 peaceful coexistence, xii-xiii, 8, 20, 72, 119, 271,277 Pentagon leaders continue to sacrifice capacity, 256 People’s Republics in Luhansk and Donetsk, 80 perekhod, 31, 33 perestroika, 4,
16-19, 21 Perry, William, 12 PLA’S growing global presence, 246 PLA’s overseas basing and access, 247 PLA tries to strangle Taiwan’s economy, 259 players in the Russo-Ukrainian War, xxiv Poland, 141 polarization, 134 Poroshenko, Petro, 71, 153 Poroshenko’s fourteen-point peace plan, 89 post-Soviet East-West engagement, xi post-Soviet Russian authoritarian democracy, 34 Potsdam agreement, 5, 10
Index power projection, 257 power vertical, 45, 47 Prague Spring, 4, 9, 22 PRC’s influence operations, 247 predictability, 278 preemptive attack, 69 preemptive hot war against NATO, 164 Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, 143 principal lesson of the RussoUkrainian War, 215 pristine international standards of good conduct, 189 pristine wars, 189 private enterprises, 220 progressive politics and culture wars, 120 prospects for restoring Russia’s superpower, xxvi protecting international sea lanes in the South China Sea, 253 provincial enterprises, municipal enterprises, 220 proxy war, xxiii, 71, 120, 134, 151-152 proxy wars, 3, 119, 139, 251 prudence, 271 psychological operations (PSYOP), 193 Putin’s annexation of Crimea, vi Putin’s decision to teach Washington a lesson, xxv Putin’s rearmament program, 36 Putin, Vladimir, v, xii-xiii, xxiv-xxv, xxvii, 6, 15, 22, 35-36, 45, 48, 60, 68, 71, 77, 79, 96, 99, 101, 120, 126, 149, 173, 200, 203-204, 209, 251,278,283 R 1997 Russian-Ukrainian Treaty on Friendship, 168 307 2008 Russo-Georgian War, 46, 48 radical progressive agenda, 256 rapid trident, 151 rapprochement, 72, 119 rational choice theory, 199 rational utilitarian calculus, 271, 273 Reagan, Ronald, 20-21 realpolitik, 210 recapture of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea, xxv, 150 reclamation of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea, xiii redlines of Russo-American relations, 151 redlines regulating Ukraine’s armed struggle with Russia, 164 reduce Russia to a vassal state, 165 regime change, xi, 16, 193, 272, 283 regime change in the Kremlin and Beijing, 277 renewed Cold War, xxiii Republican
communist parties, 19 Republic of Crimea, 79, 95 rescind Crimea’s annexation, 99 rescind Russia’s annexation of Crimea, 102 reset button, 81, 135, 182 resources and technology for force modernization, 247 revealed preference, 165 revealed preference analysis, 173 revitalizing America’s economy, 273 revolution of dignity, xxiii-xxiv, xxvi, 71 risk of lethal Cold War, xxvii risk of nuclear war, 282 Rome Treaty, 153 rule of contract law, 45 Russia a benign great nuclear power, 60 Russia and the West, xxiii Russian arms modernization, 53
308 Russo-Ukrainian War: Implications for the Asia Pacific Russia-NATO cooperation, 35 Russian defense-industrial complex (OPK), 122 Russian democracy, 209 Russian influence operations, 143 Russian patriotism, v Russian State Armament Program, 2011-2020, 54 Russian State Armaments Program of 2018-2027 (GPV 2027), 122 Russian traditional sphere of influence, xxv Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Mariupol, and Kherson, 164 Russia’s arms modernization drive, 60 Russia’s blockade of Kherson and Odessa, 254 Russia’s economic performance, 295 Russia’s economy, 180 Russia’s hyper-depression, 38 Russia’s national character, 133 Russia’s nuclear modernization, 205 Russia’s workably competitive markets, 278 Russo-Afghan war, 4 Russo-American Cold War, 199, 203 Russo-American partnership, xxv-xxvi Russo-American superpower contest, 179 Russo-Crimean war, vi Russo-Georgian War, 139 Russo-Ukraine war, 209 Russo-Ukrainian proxy war, 134, 199, 277, 282-283 Russo-Ukrainian War, xii, xxiii, xxv, xxvii, 72, 77, 126, 139, 149, 152, 165, 179, 189, 210, 216, 243, 249, 251,255, 267, 281-282 Russo-Ukrainian War narrative, 180 Rutskoy, Alexander, 211 S Sachs, Jeffrey, 33, 69 Samuelson, Paul, 293 seabed mineral claims in the South China Sea, xiii, 271 seabed mineral rights, 254 seabreeze, 151 secessions, 72 second Russo-Chechen War, 36 settle the Russo-Ukrainian War, 69 Sevastopol, 78, 79 Shanghai and Taipei stock exchanges, 217 Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), 126, 128, 251, 255 Shleifer, Andrei, 46 Shlykov, Vitaly, 23-24, 40, 57, 62-63, 205 shock-and-awe sanctions, 102
shock therapy, 32-34, 38, 210 silovik, 15 siloviki (power service men), 6, 16-17, 19-21, 32-33, 35-36, 59, 210, 278 Sino-American trade imbalance, 272 Slipper Revolution, 73 Slovakia, 140 socialism with a human face, 16 socialist economic efficiency, 216 social welfare function, 289 soft power, 182, 256 Solidarno^é, 4 Sonnenfeld, Jeffrey, 108 South China Sea, 271, 283 South Korea, 252 South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast, 139
Index Soviet 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia, 37 Soviet-Afghan War, 10 Soviet communism, 18 Soviet coup d’état, 22 Soviet defense budgetary outlays, 57 Soviet-era Cold War, 281 Soviet intervention in Hungary, 37 Soviet Union’s dissolution, 15 Soviet Union’s economy of shortage, 59 special economic zones, 217 special military operations, 120, 134, 139, 142, 149, 173-174, 177, 180, 251 specter of catastrophic war, 273 specter of nuclear war, 282 sphere-of-influence school, 60-61 Stalin, Joseph, 16 START, 56 START arms reduction treaty, 20 START II treaty, 35 Star Wars, 20 State Armament Program (Gosudarstvennaia Programma Vooruzhenii), 78 State Armaments Program from 2018-2027, 57 State Committee on the State of Emergency (GKChP), 24 state enterprises (SOE), 220 State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), 33, 220-221 state trading, 272 Steele dossier, 134, 137 Stiglitz, Joseph, 33, 256 Stoltenberg, Jens, 122 Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), 25 strategic patience, 251 strategic significance of petroleum prices, 101 309 strongest military in the Asia Pacific, 253 structural militarization, 17 sufficient-deterrence school, 60-61 superpower conflict over Ukraine, xxiii Supreme Soviet, 211 Swedish International Peace Research Institute, 60 Syria, 141 T 1974 Trade Act, 104 Taiwan, xiii, xxvii, 251-254, 257, 271,277-278,283 Taiwan reunification, 243, 271 Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), 260 Taiwan’s democratic free enterprise, 218 Taiwan’s free enterprise, 217 Taiwan’s independence, 253-254, 272 Taiwan’s indicative national plan for
2017-2020,219 Taiwan’s standing military, 258 Talbott, Strobe, 211 Team B, 62, 204-206 technological leadership, 239 technology ladder, 239 technology transfer, 235-236, 238-239 thermonuclear war, 152, 204 Third World, 141 Tibetans and Uighurs, 224 trade, 267 Transnistria, 139, 143 treaty on the final settlement with respect to Germany, 10 Treisman, Daniel, 46 Trilateral Contact Group, 89, 91 Tsikhanouskaya, Sviatlana, 142
310 Russo- Ukrainian War: Implications for the Asia Pacific U Ukraine, 149, 278 Ukraine collective security protection under Article 5, 150 Ukraine Gambit, 69 Ukraine Marshall Plan, 277 Ukraine’s accession to NATO, 69 Ukraine shielded by NATO’s security umbrella, 150 Ukraine’s NATO accession, 134, 150, 165, 173,281 Ukraine’s NATO membership, xxv, 152 Ukrainian civil conflict, xxiii Ukrainian civil war, 203, 283 Ukrainian dismemberment, xxiii Ukrainian invasion (special military operation), xxv Ukrainian NATO membership, 69 Ukrainian privatization, 153 Ukrainian proxy regime, 185 Ukrainian revolution, 73, 78 Ukrainian settlement, 181 Ukrianian corridor, 69 underestimated the Kremlin’s arsenal, vi UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, 189 United Nations Charter, 185 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), 271 United Nations General Assembly Resolution 68/262, 96 United States navy, 272 US Sanctions against Russia, 97 USSR’s New Union Treaty, 24 U.S.-Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), 274 U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership, 150-152, 155, 163, 165-166, 281 utilitarian net benefits, 272 V velvet authoritarian martial police state, 59 Velvet Revolution, 142 Venezuelan, 141 Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF), 121 VOSTOK, 124 VOSTOK 2018, 123 w Wales Summit, 120, 122 Warsaw Pact, 5-6, 10, 19, 21, 25, 31, 67 Warsaw Summit, 121 war that ends all wars, xii Washington’s rules, xxiii weapons of mass destruction, 203 West’s military assistance to Kyiv, 173 West’s waning influence, 182 will to omnipotence, 283 will to power, 271, 273 will to power
assures victory, 273 winning a nuclear war, 206 withdrawal from Luhansk and Donetsk, 99 Wolfowitz, Paul, 252 workably competitive communist market, 215 workably competitive market economies, 215 world opinion, 177 World Trade Organization (WTO), 216 World War III, 164, 173 WTO compliance, 256, 273 WTO’s competitive rules, 271 X Xi Jinping, xi, xiii, xxvii, 217, 249, 251-253, 272, 278, 282-283
Index Xi Jinping’s thought, 219 Xi’s aggression, 273 Xi’s market communism, 217 Y Yalta agreement, 5 Yalta and Potsdam agreements, 3, 6 Yalta Conference, 10 Yanukovych, Viktor, xxiii-xxiv, 71, 78 Yeltsin austerity program, 34 Yeltsin, Boris, xii, xxiii, 5-6, 15-18,26,31-35,45,209,211, 278,281 Yeltsin’s hyper-depression, 45 Yeltsin’s virtual economy, 45 Z ZAPAD2021, 124-125 Zelensky, Volodymyr, xii, 153 t t^nÎsjjioÎiOt^ek München 311
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| adam_txt |
Contents Preface v About the Author ix Executive Summary xi List of Figures, Tables, and Maps xxi xxiii Introduction Part I Russo-American Partnership 1 Chapter 1 Cold War World Order Chapter 2 New Thinking 15 Chapter 3 Partnership 31 Chapter 4 Economic Miracle 45 Part Π Estrangement 3 51 Chapter 5 Rearmament 53 Chapter 6 NATO Expansion 67 Chapter 7 Revolution of Dignity 71 Chapter 8 Crimean Annexation 77 xvii
xviii Russo-Ukrainian liar: Implications for the Asia Pacific Part III (Confrontation 87 Chapter 9 Minsk II Protocol 89 Chapter 10 Economic Sanctions 95 Chapter 11 Cold Peace 119 Part IV War Path 131 Chapter 12 Polarization 133 Chapter 13 Hotspots 139 Chapter 14 Flash Point 149 Chapter 15 Revealed Preference 163 Part V Russo-Ukrainian War 171 Chapter 16 Proxy War 173 Chapter 17 Cold War 179 Chapter 18 Just War 185 Chapter 19 Pristine War 189 Chapter 20 Color Revolution 193 Chapter 21 Crusade 199 Chapter 22 Nuclear War 203 Chapter 23 Next Time Will Be Different 209 Part VI Battle for the Asia Pacific 213 Chapter 24 Market Communism 215 Chapter 25 Technology Transfer 235 Chapter 26 Military Modernization 243 Chapter 27 Taiwan 251 Chapter 28 Trade 267
Contents xix Chapter 29 Sino-American Quandary 271 Chapter 30 Prospects 277 Conclusion 281 Appendix A: Bergson ’s Systems Function 289 Appendix В: Russian Economic Performance and Prospects 295 Index 299
Index A 2018 Armenian Revolution, 144 Abkhazia, 139 Academies of Sciences, 238 age of cyber disinformation, 180 airborne assault on Taipei, 252 air-sea-land battle in the South China Sea, 253 Amalrik, Andrei, 22 America and NATO reject thermonuclear war with the Kremlin, xxiv America loses the Russo-Ukrainian proxy war, 273 American and NATO military assistance to Ukraine, xxv American and NATO security assistance to ASEAN, 272 American-assisted color revolution, xxiii American co-sovereignty over Kremlin’s foreign and domestic policy, xxiv American hegemony, 69 American left, 135 American rule of law, xxvii America’s intentions are benign, xxvi America’s nuclear use policy, 253 America’s relative military decline, 254 America’s technological edge, 278 America’s willingness to respect Kremlin sensibilities, xxvi Andropov, Yuri, 6, 11,21 annexation of Crimea, ΊΊ, 119, 149 annexation of four Ukrainian oblasts — Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, 80 anti-access and area denial, 257 anti-war protest, 180 Armageddon, 182 armed assistance, 193 Armenia, 140 arms race, 61, 282 arms race with America, 255 arms race with China, 277 Article 2 of the United Nations Charter, 168 Article 5, 134 Asia Pacific, vi, 215, 243, 253, 255, 282 Asia Pacific naval forces, 273 Asia Pacific weapons procurement, 252 299
300 Russo-Ukrainian H'ar: Implications for the Asia Pacific Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), 254, 260 attitude management campaigns, moral suasion, coalitions, 283 attitude swings, 278 axis of evil, 60 Azerbaijan, 140 В 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, 168 Balkans, 140 Baltic corridor, 69 Baltic independence, 25 Bashar al-Assad, 141 Beijing did not lose the Cold War, xi Beijing’s demands for Taiwan’s prompt reunification, xxvii Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), 272 Bergson, Abram, 104,289, 291-292 Berlin Crisis, 4, 9 best is the enemy of the good, xxviii, 283 Biden-Blinken showdown, 153 Biden, Joseph, xii-xiii, xxv, xxvii, 61, 120, 126, 149, 151, 153, 163, 165-166, 173, 203-204, 251, 255, 272, 282 Biden’s bluff, 173 Biden’s prohibition of high-tech computer chips to the People’s Republic, xxvii Biden’s technology “choke”, 272 Blank, Stephen, 61 Blinken, Antony, xiii, 5, 11, 149, 151, 153,173,255 blockade Taiwan, 254 bloody battles for peace and friendship, xii boomerang effects, 103, 180 borderization strategy, 140 botching Russia’s post-Soviet transition, xxvi Braw, Elizabeth, 254 Brezhnev Doctrine, 4, 9 Brezhnev, Leonid, 16 brink of hot war, xxv building regional military alliances (horizontal escalation), 255 Bush, George H. W, 11, 16, 21, 31, 35,205 C capabilities for counter-intervention and power projection, 245 catastrophic transition, 33 catching up to Portugal, 48 Catherine the Great, 7 chemical and biological research, 246 chemical and biological weapons, 203 Chiang Kaishek, 4 China, 278 China as America’s number one superpower rival,
243 China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner, 260 China’s abusive state trading, 283 China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, 267 China’s armed forces, 272 China’s Communist Party monopoly, 278 China’s economic growth, 215 China’s Five-Year Plan, 219 China’s Gini coefficient, 221 China’s global military activities, 247 China’s influence in Southeast Asia, 253 China’s market communism, 218 China’s market communism inegalitarianism, 221
Index China’s market communist system, 215, 216 China’s military arms race, 252 China’s military modernization, 253 China’s naval forces, 254 China’s predatory state-trading practices, xiii China’s state trading, 267 China’s state trading to pirate technology, 271 China’s status as a Marxist-Leninist regime, 219 China’s successful military modernization, xxvii China’s surplus, 268 China’s transition, xi China’s unstoppable ascent is reality, 272 China’s workably competitive markets, 225 China’s WTO non-compliance, 267 China to catch up with Thailand, 224 Chinese Academy of Sciences, 235-236,239 Chinese and Russian Academies of Sciences remain bureaucratic, 236 Chinese and Russian multinational firms, 237 Chinese color revolution, xiii, 272 Chinese color revolution and regime change, 283 Chinese Communist success story, 219 Chinese economy’s commanding heights, 220 Chinese hypersonic missile, 262 Chinese market communism is meritocratic, 278 Chinese nuclear-warfare development, 262 301 “choke” Beijing’s access to high-tech computer chips, 272 Churchill, Winston, v Clinton, Bill, 5, 16, 31, 35, 48, 209, 211 Clinton, Hillary, 134 Clinton’s yes man, 278 cluster munitions, 190 CMEA, 5,21 coalition of the willing, 273 coercing Russia to rescind Crimea’s annexation, xii coexistence, 282 Cold Peace, xii-xiii, xxvii, 71, 77, 99, 126, 151, 166, 175, 193,271, 277-278, 282-283 Cold War, vi, xii-xiii, xxiv, 4-6, 20, 37, 99, 151, 163,209, 271,278, 283 Cold War aggression, 193 Cold War game, 182 Cold War interlude of 2014-2022, 139 Cold War rules, 173 Cold War sanctions, 225 Collective
Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), 124 color revolution, xxiii, 3, 48, 60, 72, 77, 81, 152, 163, 177, 180, 185, 193, 210 color revolutionary wars, xxiv color revolution in Belarus, 181 Comecon (the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance), 6, 10, 26, 104 common European home, 61, 182 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), 10, 181 communism, 5 communism with Chinese characteristics, 219 communist command economy, xii
302 Russo-Ukrainian Har: Implications for the Asia Pacific communist managers and entrepreneurs, 217 confidence building, xxvi, 119, 136 confidence-building measures, vi conventional and nuclear forces in the Asia Pacific, 251 Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE), 120 Cooper, Julian, 54-55, 60 coordinating committee for multilateral export controls, 104, 107 correlation of forces, 59, 149, 251-252, 256, 267, 272, 278 co-sovereign influence in Ukraine, xii, 281 co-sovereignty, 72, 136, 152-153, 177, 186, 272, 277 co-sovereignty zones, 71 Cossack Mace, 151 coup d’etat against Yanukovych, 78 coup d’état in August 1991, 17 CPC as freehold lease grantor, 218 CPC has not abandoned the underclass, 223 CPC is also the arbiter of lease disputes, 218 CPC is China’s sovereign, 218 CPC manages exports and imports, 268 CPC monopoly on political power, 219 CPC privileges emerging professional and military elites, 224 CPC sets the rules of private leaseholds, 220 CPC’s four modernizations program, 216 CPC’s state monopoly on freehold property, 218 CPC turnpike, 218 credible military deterrence, xxvi credible nuclear deterrence, 253 Crimea, 149, 181 crime against humanity, 153 Crimean de-annexation, 95 Crimea’s annexation, 79 crusade, 199-201 Cuban Missile crisis, 4 Cultural Revolution, 217 cyber and disinformation warfare, 186 cyber technologies, 237 cyberwarfare, 238 D de-annexation of Crimea, 99 decapitating assault on Kyiv, 174 declaration of economic war, 99 Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area Agreement, 200 de-globalizing drift, 182 democratic centrism, 19 democratic
deficit, 225 democratic free enterprise, xii democratic free enterprise ideal, 225 democratic free enterprise ideology, 210 demokratizatsia (democratization), 16-17, 19,21 Deng’s liberalization agenda, 224 Deng’s revision of MarxistLeninism, 216 Deng Xiaoping, 18, 33, 216-217, 236 Deng Xiaoping’s experiment in market socialism, 224 de-Russification, 153 der Wille zur Macht, 271 developments in the PLA’s modernization and reform, 244 direct foreign investment, 236 dominant military presence in the Asia Pacific, 278 Doomsday possibilities, 204 doublespeak, 165
Index Eastern Orthodox Christian minority, 5 East European satellites, 16 East-West hotspot, 140 eclipsing American superpower, 278 economic and trade agreement between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China, 267 economic genocide, 38 economic sanctions, xxvii, 95-96, 100, 102, 106-107, 120, 149, 177, 182, 186,210,216, 273,281,295 economic transition, 283 economic war, 102, 164, 168, 278 embargoes, 100 embargo on Russian oil, 180 ethnic cleansing, 153 EU expansion, 21 Eurasian economic union, 141 Euromaidan, 77, 81 Euromaidan events, 78 European deterrence initiative, 68 European Union (EU), xi, 5, 35 European Union-Ukraine Association Agreement, 200 EU sanctions against Russia, 96 evil empire, xii, 20, 133-134, 200, 282 F 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), 226 factional intra-Ukrainian struggle, xxiv first use of nuclear weapons, 205 flashpoint, 142, 149 flawed deterrence planning in the Asia Pacific, 256 force projection, 69 foreign joint venture firms, 237 303 foreign joint ventures, 220 foreign technology acquisition, 248 Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation, and Security, 35, 39 Fourth Industrial Revolution (FIR), 237,239 freehold lease grantor, 218 freehold ownership rights, 216 freehold property, 226 frosty lethal Cold War in Europe, xxv frozen conflict, 278 G Gaidar-G-7 transition program, 34 Gaidar, Yegor, 38 gas station with nukes, 182 Georgia, 139 global financial crisis, 53 global financial crisis of 2008, 100 globalist case for free trade, 103 global order, 225 global supremacy, 225 goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan period
(2021-2025), 219 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 4, 6, 9, 11, 15-16, 18, 20-22, 24, 26, 31, 278 Gosplan, 17 Grand Bargain, 5, 31, 33, 210 grey zone aggression, 254 grey-zone events, 193 grey zone power seeking, 119 guanxi, 217, 226 guns and butter, 59, 61 Gurvich-Prilepskiy, 101 H hard power, 72 hard power defense spending, 282 Helsinki Final Act, 120, 127 hidden inflation, 16 high-tech chip export restrictions, 273
304 Russo-Ukrainian War: Implications for the Asia Pacific hi-tech American military technology, xiii, 283 Hitler, Adolf, vi, 3 Holy Russia, 135 hotspots, 142 hot war, 163, 271 hot war between NATO and Russia, 164 Hungarian Revolution, 4, 9 Hungary, 140 hybrid warfare, 237, 239 hyper-deficit spending, 201 hyper-depression, 32 hyper-inflation, 32 I idea of the West, 181 impoverished superpower, 17 incremental aggression in the Asia Pacific, 252 indomitable will, 271 industrially hollowed-out West, 278 intellectual property, 239 invasion of Taiwan, 253 investment, technology transfer, 99 iron curtain, 4-5, 133 irredentist vendettas, 61 Islamic State of Iraq, 141 Ivan the Great (Ivan III), 3, 7 Ivan the Terrible, 136 J Jackson-Vanik amendment, 104, 106 Jackson-Vanik controls, 95 "J-curve" economic miracle, 32 “J-curve” economic transition promises, 281 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), 166 joint ventures, 238 jus ad bellum, 185, 187, 203, 282 jus ad bellum battles, 203 jus in bello, 189,204, 282 jus in bello rules, 203 just war, 185, 203 just war against Russia, 204 К katastroika, 18 Kennan, George F., 48 Khasbulatov, Ruslan, 34, 211 Khrushchev, Nikita, 4, 9, 16-17 Kim Il-sung, 252 Koestler, Arthur, 59 Kogan, Eugene, 55 Korean peninsula, 278 Kosovo War, 36 Kosygin, Aleksei, 16-17 Kremlin re-empowerment, 210 Kremlin’s arms modernization program, 120 Kremlin’s duplicity, 210 Kremlin’s fears and complexes, 60 Kremlin’s special military operation, xxiv-xxv L Lavrov, Sergei, 151-153 lawful annexation of Crimea, 185 leader of the free world, xi leasehold property, 226
leasing is a black box, 220 legitimate form of self-defense, 187 Lenin, Vladimir, 31 Lenovo, 238 lethal retaliation, 193 liberal communism, 20 Liberman, Evsei, 17 Libya, 141 Lisbon Protocol to the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, 39 little green men, 82
Index 305 low-cost Cold War, 277 low-cost, regime-changing Cold War with China, 282 Luhansk and Donetsk, xii, 149, 181 Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, 174 Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea, 164-166, 200, 204, 273,277, 281-282 Lukashenko, Alexander, 142 Μ Madrid Summit, 121-122 Magnitsky Act, 107 Maidan events, 72, 119 Maidan Revolution, 73 Malaysia Airlines flight MH-17, 97 Mao’s planned economy, 216 Mao Zedong, 4, 252 market communism, 215-217 market communism serves the party first, 225 markets with Chinese Communist characteristics, 216 Marxist full communism, 219 Marxist-Leninist planned economy, 216 Matlock, Jack, 25, 41 McFaul, Michael, 10, 81-82, 210 Mersheimer, John, 126 Mikhailov, Viktor, 63 military assistance program for Ukraine, 150 military imbalance between China and Taiwan, 257 military modernization drive in 2015, 281 military pressure, 283 military superiority in the Asia Pacific, 253 military technological edge, 272 Minsk I and Minsk II Protocols, 89 Minsk II agreement, 80 mobilization capacity of the Soviet System, 205 modernizing the People’s Liberation Army, 243 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, xxiv, Ί, 20 Molotov-Ribbentrop Soviet-German “non-aggression” pact, 3 Muammar al-Gaddafi, 141 multi-polarity, 182 Munich Security Conference, 26 Muscovite rent-granting system, 59 mutual assured destruction (MAD), 203-204, 258 mutually assured mass destruction, 253 myth of China’s unstoppable ascent, 272 N Nagorno-Karabakh, 140 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, 140 NATO, xi, xxiv-xxv, 4-6, 8, 12, 19, 21,37, 67, 68-69, 119-122, 134, 13 9-140, 142, 149, 179, 181, 185-186,
200-201, 204, 209-210, 283 NATO accession, 35, 273 NATO bombed the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, 36 NATO coalition to conquer Russia, 282 NATO expansion, xii, 26, 31, 36, 48-49, 53, 77, 95, 180,281 NATO global reach, xxv NATO-led KFOR, 35 NATO membership, 21 NATO Readiness Action Plan, 120 NATO Response Force, 120, 122 NATO security guarantees, 281 NATO’s Readiness Program, 122
306 Russo-Ukrainian War: Implications for the Asia Paciflc NATO-Ukraine Action Plan, 67 NATO-Ukraine military exercises, 151 naval blockades are rarely decisive, 254 Newton, Isaac, 291, 293 new-wave Cold War clash of superpower titans, xii next time will be different, 209 no default plan, 272 no final defeat, 278 non-lethal economic, geopolitical, and diplomatic jousting, xxvii non-negotiable demands, 271 Nord Stream 2, 158 Normandy Format, 92 North Korea, 252 novoe myslenie (new thinking), 4, 16-17, 19, 21 Novorossiya, 80, 139, 142, 176 nuclear brinksmanship, 134 nuclear capabilities, 246 nuclear monopoly, 203 nuclear risk, 204 nuclear stockpiles, 205 nuclear threshold, 204 nuclear weapons, 203 Nuland, Victoria, 75 Nye, Joseph, 252 О Obama, Barack, 48, 152 Obama-Biden, 6 omnipotent, unipolar superpower option, 282 One China, 272 One China policy, 274 one country, two systems, 254, 261 Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), 37, 89 OSCE principles, 168 ostracize Taipei’s participation in global institutions, 254 P Pacific Air Sea Battle plan, 272,275 pacing strategy to maintain military superiority in the Asia Pacific, 255 Pareto efficient systems, 290 Pareto optimum, 201 Pareto preferred, 199, 201 Pareto, Vilfredo, 293 partitioning Ukraine, 176 partnership for peace, xii-xiii, 11,21, 35-36, 39, 68,71,210, 267, 277-278,281-283 partnership for peace agreement, 209 peaceful coexistence, xii-xiii, 8, 20, 72, 119, 271,277 Pentagon leaders continue to sacrifice capacity, 256 People’s Republics in Luhansk and Donetsk, 80 perekhod, 31, 33 perestroika, 4,
16-19, 21 Perry, William, 12 PLA’S growing global presence, 246 PLA’s overseas basing and access, 247 PLA tries to strangle Taiwan’s economy, 259 players in the Russo-Ukrainian War, xxiv Poland, 141 polarization, 134 Poroshenko, Petro, 71, 153 Poroshenko’s fourteen-point peace plan, 89 post-Soviet East-West engagement, xi post-Soviet Russian authoritarian democracy, 34 Potsdam agreement, 5, 10
Index power projection, 257 power vertical, 45, 47 Prague Spring, 4, 9, 22 PRC’s influence operations, 247 predictability, 278 preemptive attack, 69 preemptive hot war against NATO, 164 Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, 143 principal lesson of the RussoUkrainian War, 215 pristine international standards of good conduct, 189 pristine wars, 189 private enterprises, 220 progressive politics and culture wars, 120 prospects for restoring Russia’s superpower, xxvi protecting international sea lanes in the South China Sea, 253 provincial enterprises, municipal enterprises, 220 proxy war, xxiii, 71, 120, 134, 151-152 proxy wars, 3, 119, 139, 251 prudence, 271 psychological operations (PSYOP), 193 Putin’s annexation of Crimea, vi Putin’s decision to teach Washington a lesson, xxv Putin’s rearmament program, 36 Putin, Vladimir, v, xii-xiii, xxiv-xxv, xxvii, 6, 15, 22, 35-36, 45, 48, 60, 68, 71, 77, 79, 96, 99, 101, 120, 126, 149, 173, 200, 203-204, 209, 251,278,283 R 1997 Russian-Ukrainian Treaty on Friendship, 168 307 2008 Russo-Georgian War, 46, 48 radical progressive agenda, 256 rapid trident, 151 rapprochement, 72, 119 rational choice theory, 199 rational utilitarian calculus, 271, 273 Reagan, Ronald, 20-21 realpolitik, 210 recapture of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea, xxv, 150 reclamation of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea, xiii redlines of Russo-American relations, 151 redlines regulating Ukraine’s armed struggle with Russia, 164 reduce Russia to a vassal state, 165 regime change, xi, 16, 193, 272, 283 regime change in the Kremlin and Beijing, 277 renewed Cold War, xxiii Republican
communist parties, 19 Republic of Crimea, 79, 95 rescind Crimea’s annexation, 99 rescind Russia’s annexation of Crimea, 102 reset button, 81, 135, 182 resources and technology for force modernization, 247 revealed preference, 165 revealed preference analysis, 173 revitalizing America’s economy, 273 revolution of dignity, xxiii-xxiv, xxvi, 71 risk of lethal Cold War, xxvii risk of nuclear war, 282 Rome Treaty, 153 rule of contract law, 45 Russia a benign great nuclear power, 60 Russia and the West, xxiii Russian arms modernization, 53
308 Russo-Ukrainian War: Implications for the Asia Pacific Russia-NATO cooperation, 35 Russian defense-industrial complex (OPK), 122 Russian democracy, 209 Russian influence operations, 143 Russian patriotism, v Russian State Armament Program, 2011-2020, 54 Russian State Armaments Program of 2018-2027 (GPV 2027), 122 Russian traditional sphere of influence, xxv Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Mariupol, and Kherson, 164 Russia’s arms modernization drive, 60 Russia’s blockade of Kherson and Odessa, 254 Russia’s economic performance, 295 Russia’s economy, 180 Russia’s hyper-depression, 38 Russia’s national character, 133 Russia’s nuclear modernization, 205 Russia’s workably competitive markets, 278 Russo-Afghan war, 4 Russo-American Cold War, 199, 203 Russo-American partnership, xxv-xxvi Russo-American superpower contest, 179 Russo-Crimean war, vi Russo-Georgian War, 139 Russo-Ukraine war, 209 Russo-Ukrainian proxy war, 134, 199, 277, 282-283 Russo-Ukrainian War, xii, xxiii, xxv, xxvii, 72, 77, 126, 139, 149, 152, 165, 179, 189, 210, 216, 243, 249, 251,255, 267, 281-282 Russo-Ukrainian War narrative, 180 Rutskoy, Alexander, 211 S Sachs, Jeffrey, 33, 69 Samuelson, Paul, 293 seabed mineral claims in the South China Sea, xiii, 271 seabed mineral rights, 254 seabreeze, 151 secessions, 72 second Russo-Chechen War, 36 settle the Russo-Ukrainian War, 69 Sevastopol, 78, 79 Shanghai and Taipei stock exchanges, 217 Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), 126, 128, 251, 255 Shleifer, Andrei, 46 Shlykov, Vitaly, 23-24, 40, 57, 62-63, 205 shock-and-awe sanctions, 102
shock therapy, 32-34, 38, 210 silovik, 15 siloviki (power service men), 6, 16-17, 19-21, 32-33, 35-36, 59, 210, 278 Sino-American trade imbalance, 272 Slipper Revolution, 73 Slovakia, 140 socialism with a human face, 16 socialist economic efficiency, 216 social welfare function, 289 soft power, 182, 256 Solidarno^é, 4 Sonnenfeld, Jeffrey, 108 South China Sea, 271, 283 South Korea, 252 South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast, 139
Index Soviet 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia, 37 Soviet-Afghan War, 10 Soviet communism, 18 Soviet coup d’état, 22 Soviet defense budgetary outlays, 57 Soviet-era Cold War, 281 Soviet intervention in Hungary, 37 Soviet Union’s dissolution, 15 Soviet Union’s economy of shortage, 59 special economic zones, 217 special military operations, 120, 134, 139, 142, 149, 173-174, 177, 180, 251 specter of catastrophic war, 273 specter of nuclear war, 282 sphere-of-influence school, 60-61 Stalin, Joseph, 16 START, 56 START arms reduction treaty, 20 START II treaty, 35 Star Wars, 20 State Armament Program (Gosudarstvennaia Programma Vooruzhenii), 78 State Armaments Program from 2018-2027, 57 State Committee on the State of Emergency (GKChP), 24 state enterprises (SOE), 220 State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), 33, 220-221 state trading, 272 Steele dossier, 134, 137 Stiglitz, Joseph, 33, 256 Stoltenberg, Jens, 122 Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), 25 strategic patience, 251 strategic significance of petroleum prices, 101 309 strongest military in the Asia Pacific, 253 structural militarization, 17 sufficient-deterrence school, 60-61 superpower conflict over Ukraine, xxiii Supreme Soviet, 211 Swedish International Peace Research Institute, 60 Syria, 141 T 1974 Trade Act, 104 Taiwan, xiii, xxvii, 251-254, 257, 271,277-278,283 Taiwan reunification, 243, 271 Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), 260 Taiwan’s democratic free enterprise, 218 Taiwan’s free enterprise, 217 Taiwan’s independence, 253-254, 272 Taiwan’s indicative national plan for
2017-2020,219 Taiwan’s standing military, 258 Talbott, Strobe, 211 Team B, 62, 204-206 technological leadership, 239 technology ladder, 239 technology transfer, 235-236, 238-239 thermonuclear war, 152, 204 Third World, 141 Tibetans and Uighurs, 224 trade, 267 Transnistria, 139, 143 treaty on the final settlement with respect to Germany, 10 Treisman, Daniel, 46 Trilateral Contact Group, 89, 91 Tsikhanouskaya, Sviatlana, 142
310 Russo- Ukrainian War: Implications for the Asia Pacific U Ukraine, 149, 278 Ukraine collective security protection under Article 5, 150 Ukraine Gambit, 69 Ukraine Marshall Plan, 277 Ukraine’s accession to NATO, 69 Ukraine shielded by NATO’s security umbrella, 150 Ukraine’s NATO accession, 134, 150, 165, 173,281 Ukraine’s NATO membership, xxv, 152 Ukrainian civil conflict, xxiii Ukrainian civil war, 203, 283 Ukrainian dismemberment, xxiii Ukrainian invasion (special military operation), xxv Ukrainian NATO membership, 69 Ukrainian privatization, 153 Ukrainian proxy regime, 185 Ukrainian revolution, 73, 78 Ukrainian settlement, 181 Ukrianian corridor, 69 underestimated the Kremlin’s arsenal, vi UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, 189 United Nations Charter, 185 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), 271 United Nations General Assembly Resolution 68/262, 96 United States navy, 272 US Sanctions against Russia, 97 USSR’s New Union Treaty, 24 U.S.-Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), 274 U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership, 150-152, 155, 163, 165-166, 281 utilitarian net benefits, 272 V velvet authoritarian martial police state, 59 Velvet Revolution, 142 Venezuelan, 141 Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF), 121 VOSTOK, 124 VOSTOK 2018, 123 w Wales Summit, 120, 122 Warsaw Pact, 5-6, 10, 19, 21, 25, 31, 67 Warsaw Summit, 121 war that ends all wars, xii Washington’s rules, xxiii weapons of mass destruction, 203 West’s military assistance to Kyiv, 173 West’s waning influence, 182 will to omnipotence, 283 will to power, 271, 273 will to power
assures victory, 273 winning a nuclear war, 206 withdrawal from Luhansk and Donetsk, 99 Wolfowitz, Paul, 252 workably competitive communist market, 215 workably competitive market economies, 215 world opinion, 177 World Trade Organization (WTO), 216 World War III, 164, 173 WTO compliance, 256, 273 WTO’s competitive rules, 271 X Xi Jinping, xi, xiii, xxvii, 217, 249, 251-253, 272, 278, 282-283
Index Xi Jinping’s thought, 219 Xi’s aggression, 273 Xi’s market communism, 217 Y Yalta agreement, 5 Yalta and Potsdam agreements, 3, 6 Yalta Conference, 10 Yanukovych, Viktor, xxiii-xxiv, 71, 78 Yeltsin austerity program, 34 Yeltsin, Boris, xii, xxiii, 5-6, 15-18,26,31-35,45,209,211, 278,281 Yeltsin’s hyper-depression, 45 Yeltsin’s virtual economy, 45 Z ZAPAD2021, 124-125 Zelensky, Volodymyr, xii, 153 t't^nÎsjjioÎiOt^ek München 311 |
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| author | Rosefielde, Steven 1942- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)139623566 |
| author_facet | Rosefielde, Steven 1942- |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Rosefielde, Steven 1942- |
| author_variant | s r sr |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV049389237 |
| contents | Part I Russo-American Partnership -- Cold War World Order -- New Thinking -- Partnership -- Economic Miracle -- Part II Estrangement -- Rearmament -- NATO Expansion -- Revolution of Dignity -- Annexation (Crimea) -- Part III Confrontation -- Minsk II Protocol -- Economic Sanctions -- Cold Peace -- Part IV War Path -- Polarization -- Hotspots -- Flash Point -- Revealed Preference -- Part V Russo-Ukrainian War -- Proxy War -- Cold War -- Just War -- Pristine War -- Color Revolution -- Crusade -- Nuclear War -- Next Time Will Be Different -- Part VI Battle for the Asia Pacific -- Market Communism -- Technology Transfer -- Military Modernization -- Taiwan -- Trade -- Sino-American Quandary -- Prospects |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1402794499 (DE-599)BVBBV049389237 |
| era | Geschichte 1992- gnd |
| era_facet | Geschichte 1992- |
| format | Book |
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| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T23:00:51Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T10:05:42Z |
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| physical | xxxv, 311 Seiten 3 Diagramme, 5 Karten 24 cm |
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| publisher | World Scientific |
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| spelling | Rosefielde, Steven 1942- Verfasser (DE-588)139623566 aut Russo-Ukrainian war implications for the Asia Pacific Steven Rosefielde (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, USA) New Jersey ; London ; Singapore ; Beijing ; Shanghai ; Hong Kong ; Taipei ; Chennai ; Tokyo World Scientific [2024] © 2024 xxxv, 311 Seiten 3 Diagramme, 5 Karten 24 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Part I Russo-American Partnership -- Cold War World Order -- New Thinking -- Partnership -- Economic Miracle -- Part II Estrangement -- Rearmament -- NATO Expansion -- Revolution of Dignity -- Annexation (Crimea) -- Part III Confrontation -- Minsk II Protocol -- Economic Sanctions -- Cold Peace -- Part IV War Path -- Polarization -- Hotspots -- Flash Point -- Revealed Preference -- Part V Russo-Ukrainian War -- Proxy War -- Cold War -- Just War -- Pristine War -- Color Revolution -- Crusade -- Nuclear War -- Next Time Will Be Different -- Part VI Battle for the Asia Pacific -- Market Communism -- Technology Transfer -- Military Modernization -- Taiwan -- Trade -- Sino-American Quandary -- Prospects "Russo-Ukrainian War: Implications for the Asia Pacific explores the implications of the Russo-Ukrainian war for American and Chinese engagement in the Asia Pacific. It interprets Russia's invasion of Ukraine which began on February 24, 2022 as part of a complex double game where the Kremlin and Washington simultaneously spar, bluffing for high stakes despite catastrophic risks in the name of lofty ideals, while pursuing expedient default agendas. Both sides champion virtuous global orders compatible with their tastes and objectives. Washington seeks to compel Moscow to abide by its rules and vice-versa. The immediate impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the Asia Pacific has been to confirm Chinese President Xi Jinping's perception that Washington is committed to low-cost, regime-changing Cold War with China to preserve its status as the world's preeminent superpower. Washington is willing to increase hard power defense spending modestly to tackle the Taiwan and South China Sea issues, but will not compete with China in an arms race, curtail productivity stifling government over-regulation and social spending or curb China's abusive state trading. Emboldened by what Washington considers America's successes in the Russo-Ukrainian proxy war, American President Joe Biden plans to reinforce military spending with attitude management campaigns, moral suasion and coalitions of the willing including the North Atlantic Treaty Organization - efforts to spark Chinese color revolution and regime change. Biden diplomatically calls his policy Cold Peace, but his actions bespeak Cold War. Amid the power contestation among the United States, Russia and China, it is naïve in the contemporary world to suppose that the three major powers can permanently subjugate each other. Wise leadership requires satisficing for the attainable good rather than striving for the delusional best"-- Geschichte 1992- gnd rswk-swf Geopolitik (DE-588)4156741-9 gnd rswk-swf Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg (DE-588)106969780X gnd rswk-swf Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd rswk-swf China (DE-588)4009937-4 gnd rswk-swf Pacific Area / Strategic aspects United States / Foreign relations / Russia (Federation) United States / Foreign relations / China China / Foreign relations / United States Russia (Federation) / Foreign relations / United States Ukraine / History / Russian Invasion, 2022- Proxy war / United States Pacifique, Région du / Aspect stratégique États-Unis / Relations extérieures / Russie États-Unis / Relations extérieures / Chine Chine / Relations extérieures / États-Unis Guerre par procuration / États-Unis Diplomatic relations Proxy war Strategic aspects of individual places China Pacific Area Russia (Federation) Ukraine United States Since 2022 History USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 g Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 s Geschichte 1992- z DE-604 China (DE-588)4009937-4 g Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg (DE-588)106969780X s Geopolitik (DE-588)4156741-9 s Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe, EPUB 978-981-127-488-6 Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034716698&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034716698&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Register // Gemischte Register |
| spellingShingle | Rosefielde, Steven 1942- Russo-Ukrainian war implications for the Asia Pacific Part I Russo-American Partnership -- Cold War World Order -- New Thinking -- Partnership -- Economic Miracle -- Part II Estrangement -- Rearmament -- NATO Expansion -- Revolution of Dignity -- Annexation (Crimea) -- Part III Confrontation -- Minsk II Protocol -- Economic Sanctions -- Cold Peace -- Part IV War Path -- Polarization -- Hotspots -- Flash Point -- Revealed Preference -- Part V Russo-Ukrainian War -- Proxy War -- Cold War -- Just War -- Pristine War -- Color Revolution -- Crusade -- Nuclear War -- Next Time Will Be Different -- Part VI Battle for the Asia Pacific -- Market Communism -- Technology Transfer -- Military Modernization -- Taiwan -- Trade -- Sino-American Quandary -- Prospects Geopolitik (DE-588)4156741-9 gnd Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg (DE-588)106969780X gnd Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4156741-9 (DE-588)106969780X (DE-588)4072885-7 (DE-588)4078704-7 (DE-588)4076899-5 (DE-588)4009937-4 |
| title | Russo-Ukrainian war implications for the Asia Pacific |
| title_auth | Russo-Ukrainian war implications for the Asia Pacific |
| title_exact_search | Russo-Ukrainian war implications for the Asia Pacific |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Russo-Ukrainian war implications for the Asia Pacific |
| title_full | Russo-Ukrainian war implications for the Asia Pacific Steven Rosefielde (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, USA) |
| title_fullStr | Russo-Ukrainian war implications for the Asia Pacific Steven Rosefielde (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, USA) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Russo-Ukrainian war implications for the Asia Pacific Steven Rosefielde (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, USA) |
| title_short | Russo-Ukrainian war |
| title_sort | russo ukrainian war implications for the asia pacific |
| title_sub | implications for the Asia Pacific |
| topic | Geopolitik (DE-588)4156741-9 gnd Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg (DE-588)106969780X gnd Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd |
| topic_facet | Geopolitik Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg Internationale Politik USA Russland China |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034716698&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034716698&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rosefieldesteven russoukrainianwarimplicationsfortheasiapacific |