The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies:
In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain the spread of COVID-19 can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, this paper builds a macro-susceptible-infected-recover...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
The World Bank
2021
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| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain the spread of COVID-19 can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, this paper builds a macro-susceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality. The model is calibrated to data for 85 countries across all income levels. The findings show that in low-income countries, a lockdown can potentially lead to 1.76 children's lives lost due to the economic contraction per COVID-19 fatality averted. The figure stands at 0.59 and 0.06 in lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries, respectively. As a result, in some countries, lockdowns can produce net increases in mortality. The optimal lockdowns are shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones and never produce a net mortality increase |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (55 Seiten) |
| DOI: | 10.1596/1813-9450-9677 |
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| 520 | 3 | |a In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain the spread of COVID-19 can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, this paper builds a macro-susceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality. The model is calibrated to data for 85 countries across all income levels. The findings show that in low-income countries, a lockdown can potentially lead to 1.76 children's lives lost due to the economic contraction per COVID-19 fatality averted. The figure stands at 0.59 and 0.06 in lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries, respectively. As a result, in some countries, lockdowns can produce net increases in mortality. The optimal lockdowns are shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones and never produce a net mortality increase | |
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| spellingShingle | Ma, Lin The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies |
| title | The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies |
| title_auth | The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies |
| title_exact_search | The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies |
| title_exact_search_txtP | The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies |
| title_full | The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies Lin Ma |
| title_fullStr | The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies Lin Ma |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies Lin Ma |
| title_short | The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies |
| title_sort | the intergenerational mortality tradeoff of covid 19 lockdown policies |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9677 |
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