Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies:
With close to 30 emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) using inflation targeting to determine monetary policy, and many of them for over 15 years, it is possible to create a meaningful measure of neutral real interest rates in these economies. The neutral real interest rate provides polic...
Gespeichert in:
1. Verfasser: | |
---|---|
Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
Sprache: | English |
Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
The World Bank
2021
|
Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
Zusammenfassung: | With close to 30 emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) using inflation targeting to determine monetary policy, and many of them for over 15 years, it is possible to create a meaningful measure of neutral real interest rates in these economies. The neutral real interest rate provides policymakers with a benchmark for the interest rate at which economic activity reaches its full potential and inflation will stabilize. The deviation of policy rates from this neutral rate determines whether monetary policy is accommodative or restrictive. This paper provides aggregate estimates of the neutral rate in 20 of these economies. EMDEs have seen a decline in the neutral rate of 4 percentage points, from over 6 percent in 2000 to closer to 2 percent at the end of 2019; advanced economies saw an above 2 percentage point decline over this period. The decline of neutral real interest rates in EMDEs can only partially be related to domestic drivers of desired savings and investment. The secular decline in the neutral rate of interest is limiting the ability of EMDEs to stimulate economies in the face of large shocks. The neutral real interest rate is unobservable and subject to a high degree of uncertainty, double the size of that for advanced economies. With such high uncertainty determining the stance of monetary policy in these economies is a challenge |
Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (32 Seiten) |
DOI: | 10.1596/1813-9450-9711 |
Internformat
MARC
LEADER | 00000nmm a22000001c 4500 | ||
---|---|---|---|
001 | BV049081325 | ||
003 | DE-604 | ||
007 | cr|uuu---uuuuu | ||
008 | 230731s2021 xxu|||| o||u| ||||||eng d | ||
024 | 7 | |a 10.1596/1813-9450-9711 |2 doi | |
035 | |a (ZDB-1-WBA)067600034 | ||
035 | |a (OCoLC)1392148380 | ||
035 | |a (DE-599)KEP067600034 | ||
040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e rda | ||
041 | 0 | |a eng | |
044 | |a xxu |c XD-US | ||
049 | |a DE-12 |a DE-521 |a DE-573 |a DE-523 |a DE-Re13 |a DE-19 |a DE-355 |a DE-703 |a DE-91 |a DE-706 |a DE-29 |a DE-M347 |a DE-473 |a DE-824 |a DE-20 |a DE-739 |a DE-1043 |a DE-863 |a DE-862 | ||
100 | 1 | |a Ruch, Franz Ulrich |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
245 | 1 | 0 | |a Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies |c Franz Ulrich Ruch |
264 | 1 | |a Washington, D.C |b The World Bank |c 2021 | |
300 | |a 1 Online-Ressource (32 Seiten) | ||
336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
337 | |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
338 | |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
520 | 3 | |a With close to 30 emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) using inflation targeting to determine monetary policy, and many of them for over 15 years, it is possible to create a meaningful measure of neutral real interest rates in these economies. The neutral real interest rate provides policymakers with a benchmark for the interest rate at which economic activity reaches its full potential and inflation will stabilize. The deviation of policy rates from this neutral rate determines whether monetary policy is accommodative or restrictive. This paper provides aggregate estimates of the neutral rate in 20 of these economies. EMDEs have seen a decline in the neutral rate of 4 percentage points, from over 6 percent in 2000 to closer to 2 percent at the end of 2019; advanced economies saw an above 2 percentage point decline over this period. The decline of neutral real interest rates in EMDEs can only partially be related to domestic drivers of desired savings and investment. The secular decline in the neutral rate of interest is limiting the ability of EMDEs to stimulate economies in the face of large shocks. The neutral real interest rate is unobservable and subject to a high degree of uncertainty, double the size of that for advanced economies. With such high uncertainty determining the stance of monetary policy in these economies is a challenge | |
856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9711 |x Verlag |z kostenfrei |3 Volltext |
912 | |a ZDB-1-WBA | ||
943 | 1 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-034343215 |
Datensatz im Suchindex
_version_ | 1812671850010902528 |
---|---|
adam_text | |
adam_txt | |
any_adam_object | |
any_adam_object_boolean | |
author | Ruch, Franz Ulrich |
author_facet | Ruch, Franz Ulrich |
author_role | aut |
author_sort | Ruch, Franz Ulrich |
author_variant | f u r fu fur |
building | Verbundindex |
bvnumber | BV049081325 |
collection | ZDB-1-WBA |
ctrlnum | (ZDB-1-WBA)067600034 (OCoLC)1392148380 (DE-599)KEP067600034 |
discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
discipline_str_mv | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
doi_str_mv | 10.1596/1813-9450-9711 |
format | Electronic eBook |
fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>00000nmm a22000001c 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV049081325</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr|uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">230731s2021 xxu|||| o||u| ||||||eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1596/1813-9450-9711</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(ZDB-1-WBA)067600034</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)1392148380</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)KEP067600034</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">rda</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="044" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">xxu</subfield><subfield code="c">XD-US</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-12</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-521</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-573</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-523</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-Re13</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-19</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-355</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-703</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-91</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-706</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-29</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-M347</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-473</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-824</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-20</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-739</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1043</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-863</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-862</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Ruch, Franz Ulrich</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies</subfield><subfield code="c">Franz Ulrich Ruch</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Washington, D.C</subfield><subfield code="b">The World Bank</subfield><subfield code="c">2021</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 Online-Ressource (32 Seiten)</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1="3" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">With close to 30 emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) using inflation targeting to determine monetary policy, and many of them for over 15 years, it is possible to create a meaningful measure of neutral real interest rates in these economies. The neutral real interest rate provides policymakers with a benchmark for the interest rate at which economic activity reaches its full potential and inflation will stabilize. The deviation of policy rates from this neutral rate determines whether monetary policy is accommodative or restrictive. This paper provides aggregate estimates of the neutral rate in 20 of these economies. EMDEs have seen a decline in the neutral rate of 4 percentage points, from over 6 percent in 2000 to closer to 2 percent at the end of 2019; advanced economies saw an above 2 percentage point decline over this period. The decline of neutral real interest rates in EMDEs can only partially be related to domestic drivers of desired savings and investment. The secular decline in the neutral rate of interest is limiting the ability of EMDEs to stimulate economies in the face of large shocks. The neutral real interest rate is unobservable and subject to a high degree of uncertainty, double the size of that for advanced economies. With such high uncertainty determining the stance of monetary policy in these economies is a challenge</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9711</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="z">kostenfrei</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-1-WBA</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="943" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-034343215</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
id | DE-604.BV049081325 |
illustrated | Not Illustrated |
index_date | 2024-07-03T22:27:59Z |
indexdate | 2024-10-12T04:03:07Z |
institution | BVB |
language | English |
oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-034343215 |
oclc_num | 1392148380 |
open_access_boolean | 1 |
owner | DE-12 DE-521 DE-573 DE-523 DE-Re13 DE-BY-UBR DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-703 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-706 DE-29 DE-M347 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-824 DE-20 DE-739 DE-1043 DE-863 DE-BY-FWS DE-862 DE-BY-FWS |
owner_facet | DE-12 DE-521 DE-573 DE-523 DE-Re13 DE-BY-UBR DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-703 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-706 DE-29 DE-M347 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-824 DE-20 DE-739 DE-1043 DE-863 DE-BY-FWS DE-862 DE-BY-FWS |
physical | 1 Online-Ressource (32 Seiten) |
psigel | ZDB-1-WBA |
publishDate | 2021 |
publishDateSearch | 2021 |
publishDateSort | 2021 |
publisher | The World Bank |
record_format | marc |
spellingShingle | Ruch, Franz Ulrich Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies |
title | Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies |
title_auth | Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies |
title_exact_search | Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies |
title_exact_search_txtP | Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies |
title_full | Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies Franz Ulrich Ruch |
title_fullStr | Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies Franz Ulrich Ruch |
title_full_unstemmed | Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies Franz Ulrich Ruch |
title_short | Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies |
title_sort | neutral real interest rates in inflation targeting emerging and developing economies |
url | https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9711 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT ruchfranzulrich neutralrealinterestratesininflationtargetingemerginganddevelopingeconomies |