Assessing the Effects of Natural Resources on Long-Term Growth: An Extension of the World Bank Long Term Growth Model
This paper extends the World Bank's Long-Term Growth Model (LTGM) with the addition of a natural resource sector to analyze how long-run growth evolves in resource-rich countries and the growth impacts of price shocks and resource discoveries. In the LTGM-Natural Resource Extension (LTGM-NR), c...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
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Washington, D.C
The World Bank
2022
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| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper extends the World Bank's Long-Term Growth Model (LTGM) with the addition of a natural resource sector to analyze how long-run growth evolves in resource-rich countries and the growth impacts of price shocks and resource discoveries. In the LTGM-Natural Resource Extension (LTGM-NR), commodity price shocks affect long-term economic growth through physical investment rates. As a large share of resource income typically accrues to the government, the size of the boost to investment in a price boom depends on the government's fiscal rule. Fiscal rules that prioritize public investment, like a Hartwick Rule, generally lead to the largest increases in long-term growth. However, structural surplus rules, which save commodity revenues, can also boost growth if they free up savings for private investment. The response of growth to discoveries of natural resources is similar to the response to price shocks, although discoveries also produce a direct effect on real GDP, in addition to an indirect effect through investment. The LTGM-NR also captures the effect of other (non-resource) growth fundamentals in resource-rich economies, and it is better suited to general growth analysis in these countries than the standard LTGM. However, the LTGM-NR is a supply-side model, and so does not capture the short-run effects of price and discovery shocks that operate through aggregate demand |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (61 Seiten) |
| DOI: | 10.1596/1813-9450-9965 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Loayza, Norman V. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Assessing the Effects of Natural Resources on Long-Term Growth |b An Extension of the World Bank Long Term Growth Model |c Norman V. Loayza |
| 264 | 1 | |a Washington, D.C |b The World Bank |c 2022 | |
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| 520 | 3 | |a This paper extends the World Bank's Long-Term Growth Model (LTGM) with the addition of a natural resource sector to analyze how long-run growth evolves in resource-rich countries and the growth impacts of price shocks and resource discoveries. In the LTGM-Natural Resource Extension (LTGM-NR), commodity price shocks affect long-term economic growth through physical investment rates. As a large share of resource income typically accrues to the government, the size of the boost to investment in a price boom depends on the government's fiscal rule. Fiscal rules that prioritize public investment, like a Hartwick Rule, generally lead to the largest increases in long-term growth. However, structural surplus rules, which save commodity revenues, can also boost growth if they free up savings for private investment. The response of growth to discoveries of natural resources is similar to the response to price shocks, although discoveries also produce a direct effect on real GDP, in addition to an indirect effect through investment. The LTGM-NR also captures the effect of other (non-resource) growth fundamentals in resource-rich economies, and it is better suited to general growth analysis in these countries than the standard LTGM. However, the LTGM-NR is a supply-side model, and so does not capture the short-run effects of price and discovery shocks that operate through aggregate demand | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Commodity Price Fluctuation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Composition of Government Expenditure | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Development Research Group | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Economic Adjustment and Lending | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Energy | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Energy and Environment | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Energy and Natural Resources | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Energy Demand | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Fiscal and Monetary Policy | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Force Participation Rate | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Macroeconomics and Economic Growth | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Oil Reserve | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Oil Sector | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Public Sector Development | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Galego Mendes, Arthur |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Mendez Ramos, Fabian |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Pennings, Steven Michael |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9965 |x Verlag |z kostenfrei |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a ZDB-1-WBA | ||
| 943 | 1 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-034342467 | |
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| author | Loayza, Norman V. |
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| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| discipline_str_mv | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1596/1813-9450-9965 |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T22:27:57Z |
| indexdate | 2024-10-12T04:03:00Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
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| spellingShingle | Loayza, Norman V. Assessing the Effects of Natural Resources on Long-Term Growth An Extension of the World Bank Long Term Growth Model Commodity Price Fluctuation Composition of Government Expenditure Development Research Group Economic Adjustment and Lending Energy Energy and Environment Energy and Natural Resources Energy Demand Fiscal and Monetary Policy Force Participation Rate Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Oil Reserve Oil Sector Public Sector Development |
| title | Assessing the Effects of Natural Resources on Long-Term Growth An Extension of the World Bank Long Term Growth Model |
| title_auth | Assessing the Effects of Natural Resources on Long-Term Growth An Extension of the World Bank Long Term Growth Model |
| title_exact_search | Assessing the Effects of Natural Resources on Long-Term Growth An Extension of the World Bank Long Term Growth Model |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Assessing the Effects of Natural Resources on Long-Term Growth An Extension of the World Bank Long Term Growth Model |
| title_full | Assessing the Effects of Natural Resources on Long-Term Growth An Extension of the World Bank Long Term Growth Model Norman V. Loayza |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the Effects of Natural Resources on Long-Term Growth An Extension of the World Bank Long Term Growth Model Norman V. Loayza |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the Effects of Natural Resources on Long-Term Growth An Extension of the World Bank Long Term Growth Model Norman V. Loayza |
| title_short | Assessing the Effects of Natural Resources on Long-Term Growth |
| title_sort | assessing the effects of natural resources on long term growth an extension of the world bank long term growth model |
| title_sub | An Extension of the World Bank Long Term Growth Model |
| topic | Commodity Price Fluctuation Composition of Government Expenditure Development Research Group Economic Adjustment and Lending Energy Energy and Environment Energy and Natural Resources Energy Demand Fiscal and Monetary Policy Force Participation Rate Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Oil Reserve Oil Sector Public Sector Development |
| topic_facet | Commodity Price Fluctuation Composition of Government Expenditure Development Research Group Economic Adjustment and Lending Energy Energy and Environment Energy and Natural Resources Energy Demand Fiscal and Monetary Policy Force Participation Rate Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Oil Reserve Oil Sector Public Sector Development |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9965 |
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