Bayesian Impact Evaluation with Informative Priors: An Application to a Colombian Management and Export Improvement Program
Policymakers often test expensive new programs on relatively small samples. Formally incorporating informative Bayesian priors into impact evaluation offers the promise to learn more from these experiments. A Colombian government program which aimed to increase exporting was trialed experimentally o...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
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Washington, D.C
The World Bank
2023
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| Zusammenfassung: | Policymakers often test expensive new programs on relatively small samples. Formally incorporating informative Bayesian priors into impact evaluation offers the promise to learn more from these experiments. A Colombian government program which aimed to increase exporting was trialed experimentally on 200 firms with this goal in mind. Priors were elicited from academics, policymakers, and firms. Contrary to these priors, frequentist estimation can not reject 0 effects in 2019, and finds some negative impacts in 2020. For binary outcomes like whether firms export, frequentist estimates are relatively precise, and Bayesian credible posterior intervals update to overlap almost completely with standard confidence intervals. For outcomes like increasing export variety, where the priors align with the data, the value of these priors is seen in posterior intervals that are considerably narrower than frequentist confidence intervals. Finally, for noisy outcomes like export value, posterior intervals show almost no updating from the priors, highlighting how uninformative the data are about such outcomes |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (68 Seiten) |
| DOI: | 10.1596/1813-9450-10274 |
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| 520 | 3 | |a Policymakers often test expensive new programs on relatively small samples. Formally incorporating informative Bayesian priors into impact evaluation offers the promise to learn more from these experiments. A Colombian government program which aimed to increase exporting was trialed experimentally on 200 firms with this goal in mind. Priors were elicited from academics, policymakers, and firms. Contrary to these priors, frequentist estimation can not reject 0 effects in 2019, and finds some negative impacts in 2020. For binary outcomes like whether firms export, frequentist estimates are relatively precise, and Bayesian credible posterior intervals update to overlap almost completely with standard confidence intervals. For outcomes like increasing export variety, where the priors align with the data, the value of these priors is seen in posterior intervals that are considerably narrower than frequentist confidence intervals. Finally, for noisy outcomes like export value, posterior intervals show almost no updating from the priors, highlighting how uninformative the data are about such outcomes | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Competition Policy | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Export Competitiveness | |
| 650 | 4 | |a International Economics and Trade | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Macroeconomics and Economic Growth | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Prior Elicitation | |
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| indexdate | 2024-10-12T04:02:46Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
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| publisher | The World Bank |
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| spellingShingle | Iacovone, Leonardo Bayesian Impact Evaluation with Informative Priors An Application to a Colombian Management and Export Improvement Program Bayesian Impact Evaluation Competition Policy Competitiveness and Competition Policy Economic Theory and Research Export Competitiveness International Economics and Trade Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Management Prior Elicitation Private Sector Development Randomized Experiment Social Policy Evaluation Method |
| title | Bayesian Impact Evaluation with Informative Priors An Application to a Colombian Management and Export Improvement Program |
| title_auth | Bayesian Impact Evaluation with Informative Priors An Application to a Colombian Management and Export Improvement Program |
| title_exact_search | Bayesian Impact Evaluation with Informative Priors An Application to a Colombian Management and Export Improvement Program |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Bayesian Impact Evaluation with Informative Priors An Application to a Colombian Management and Export Improvement Program |
| title_full | Bayesian Impact Evaluation with Informative Priors An Application to a Colombian Management and Export Improvement Program Leonardo Iacovone |
| title_fullStr | Bayesian Impact Evaluation with Informative Priors An Application to a Colombian Management and Export Improvement Program Leonardo Iacovone |
| title_full_unstemmed | Bayesian Impact Evaluation with Informative Priors An Application to a Colombian Management and Export Improvement Program Leonardo Iacovone |
| title_short | Bayesian Impact Evaluation with Informative Priors |
| title_sort | bayesian impact evaluation with informative priors an application to a colombian management and export improvement program |
| title_sub | An Application to a Colombian Management and Export Improvement Program |
| topic | Bayesian Impact Evaluation Competition Policy Competitiveness and Competition Policy Economic Theory and Research Export Competitiveness International Economics and Trade Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Management Prior Elicitation Private Sector Development Randomized Experiment Social Policy Evaluation Method |
| topic_facet | Bayesian Impact Evaluation Competition Policy Competitiveness and Competition Policy Economic Theory and Research Export Competitiveness International Economics and Trade Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Management Prior Elicitation Private Sector Development Randomized Experiment Social Policy Evaluation Method |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10274 |
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