Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important are Oil Prices?
This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries over 1970-2022. The paper estimates a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model for each country and assess the importance of several global (demand, supply, and oil price) and domestic shocks. It reports three main results. Firs...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
The World Bank
2023
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| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries over 1970-2022. The paper estimates a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model for each country and assess the importance of several global (demand, supply, and oil price) and domestic shocks. It reports three main results. First, global shocks have explained about 26 percent of inflation variation in a typical economy. Oil price shocks accounted for only about 4 percent of inflation variation, but they had a statistically significant impact on inflation in three-quarters of the countries. Second, global shocks have become more important in driving inflation variation over time. The share of inflation variance caused by oil price shocks increased from 4 percent prior to 2000 to roughly 9 percent during 2001-22. They also accounted for some of the steep runup in inflation between mid-2021 and mid-2022. Third, oil price shocks tended to contribute significantly more to inflation variation in advanced economies, countries with stronger global trade and financial linkages, commodity importers, net energy importers, countries without inflation-targeting regimes, and countries with pegged exchange rate regimes. The headline results are robust to a wide range of exercises-including alternative measures of global factors and oil prices-and aggregation of countries |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (30 Seiten) |
| DOI: | 10.1596/1813-9450-10283 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation |b How Important are Oil Prices? |c Jongrim Ha |
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| 520 | 3 | |a This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries over 1970-2022. The paper estimates a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model for each country and assess the importance of several global (demand, supply, and oil price) and domestic shocks. It reports three main results. First, global shocks have explained about 26 percent of inflation variation in a typical economy. Oil price shocks accounted for only about 4 percent of inflation variation, but they had a statistically significant impact on inflation in three-quarters of the countries. Second, global shocks have become more important in driving inflation variation over time. The share of inflation variance caused by oil price shocks increased from 4 percent prior to 2000 to roughly 9 percent during 2001-22. They also accounted for some of the steep runup in inflation between mid-2021 and mid-2022. Third, oil price shocks tended to contribute significantly more to inflation variation in advanced economies, countries with stronger global trade and financial linkages, commodity importers, net energy importers, countries without inflation-targeting regimes, and countries with pegged exchange rate regimes. The headline results are robust to a wide range of exercises-including alternative measures of global factors and oil prices-and aggregation of countries | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Commodities | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Domestic Shock | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Energy | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Exchange Rates | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Favar Model | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Global Shock | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Inflation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Macroeconomics and Economic Growth | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Oil and Gas | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Oil Prices | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kose, M. Ayhan |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ohnsorge, Franziska |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Yilmazkuday, Hakan |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Erscheint auch als |n Druck-Ausgabe |a Ha, Jongrim |t Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important are Oil Prices? |d Washington, D.C. : The World Bank, 2023 |
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| 943 | 1 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-034341223 | |
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| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T22:27:55Z |
| indexdate | 2024-10-12T04:02:46Z |
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| spellingShingle | Ha, Jongrim Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation How Important are Oil Prices? Commodities Domestic Shock Energy Exchange Rates Favar Model Global Shock Inflation Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Oil and Gas Oil Prices |
| title | Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation How Important are Oil Prices? |
| title_auth | Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation How Important are Oil Prices? |
| title_exact_search | Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation How Important are Oil Prices? |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation How Important are Oil Prices? |
| title_full | Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation How Important are Oil Prices? Jongrim Ha |
| title_fullStr | Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation How Important are Oil Prices? Jongrim Ha |
| title_full_unstemmed | Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation How Important are Oil Prices? Jongrim Ha |
| title_short | Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation |
| title_sort | understanding the global drivers of inflation how important are oil prices |
| title_sub | How Important are Oil Prices? |
| topic | Commodities Domestic Shock Energy Exchange Rates Favar Model Global Shock Inflation Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Oil and Gas Oil Prices |
| topic_facet | Commodities Domestic Shock Energy Exchange Rates Favar Model Global Shock Inflation Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Oil and Gas Oil Prices |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10283 |
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