User's Guide to an Early Warning System for Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Latin American Countries:
Models for an early warning system do a good job predicting vulnerability to macroeconomic crises in several Latin American countries. - Herrera and Garcia develop an early warning system for macroeconomic vulnerability for several Latin American countries, drawing on the work of Kaminsky, Lizondo,...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
The World Bank
1999
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| Online-Zugang: | BSB01 EUV01 HTW01 FHI01 IOS01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Models for an early warning system do a good job predicting vulnerability to macroeconomic crises in several Latin American countries. - Herrera and Garcia develop an early warning system for macroeconomic vulnerability for several Latin American countries, drawing on the work of Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and Kaminsky (1988). They build a composite leading indicator that signals macroeconomic vulnerability, showing that, historically, crises tend to happen in certain vulnerable situations. Interested mainly in providing an operational tool, Herrera and Garcia use a different approach to the problem than Kaminsky did. First, they use fewer variables to generate the signals. Then, after the variables are aggregated, a signal is issued, depending on the behavior of the composite index. (Kaminsky's procedure was to generate signals with each variable and then aggregate them.) Their results are satisfactory both statistically and operationally. Statistically, Type I and Type II errors are smaller than those reported in previous papers. Operationally, this system of leading indicators is less costly to maintain, given fewer variables - which are widely available and reported with timeliness. Herrera and Garcia tested the models' out-of-sample predictive ability on crises that occurred after the first stage of their project was finished: Colombia (September 1998), Brazil (January 1999), and Ecuador (February 1999). In all cases the models correctly anticipated the speculative attacks. Moreover, Mexico's models, estimated with information available two years before the 1994 crisis, show that these signaling devices would have been useful for signaling the macroeconomic vulnerability before December 1994. This paper - a product of the Economic Policy Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to build tools that policymakers can use to prevent crises. The authors may be contacted at cgarciacorado@worldbank.org or sherrera@worldbank.org |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (22 Seiten)) |
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| 520 | 3 | |a Models for an early warning system do a good job predicting vulnerability to macroeconomic crises in several Latin American countries. - Herrera and Garcia develop an early warning system for macroeconomic vulnerability for several Latin American countries, drawing on the work of Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and Kaminsky (1988). They build a composite leading indicator that signals macroeconomic vulnerability, showing that, historically, crises tend to happen in certain vulnerable situations. Interested mainly in providing an operational tool, Herrera and Garcia use a different approach to the problem than Kaminsky did. First, they use fewer variables to generate the signals. Then, after the variables are aggregated, a signal is issued, depending on the behavior of the composite index. (Kaminsky's procedure was to generate signals with each variable and then aggregate them.) Their results are satisfactory both statistically and operationally. | |
| 520 | 3 | |a Statistically, Type I and Type II errors are smaller than those reported in previous papers. Operationally, this system of leading indicators is less costly to maintain, given fewer variables - which are widely available and reported with timeliness. Herrera and Garcia tested the models' out-of-sample predictive ability on crises that occurred after the first stage of their project was finished: Colombia (September 1998), Brazil (January 1999), and Ecuador (February 1999). In all cases the models correctly anticipated the speculative attacks. Moreover, Mexico's models, estimated with information available two years before the 1994 crisis, show that these signaling devices would have been useful for signaling the macroeconomic vulnerability before December 1994. This paper - a product of the Economic Policy Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to build tools that policymakers can use to prevent crises. | |
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| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T22:27:50Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:54:35Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Herrera, Santiago Verfasser aut User's Guide to an Early Warning System for Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Latin American Countries Herrera, Santiago Washington, D.C The World Bank 1999 1 Online-Ressource (22 Seiten)) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Models for an early warning system do a good job predicting vulnerability to macroeconomic crises in several Latin American countries. - Herrera and Garcia develop an early warning system for macroeconomic vulnerability for several Latin American countries, drawing on the work of Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and Kaminsky (1988). They build a composite leading indicator that signals macroeconomic vulnerability, showing that, historically, crises tend to happen in certain vulnerable situations. Interested mainly in providing an operational tool, Herrera and Garcia use a different approach to the problem than Kaminsky did. First, they use fewer variables to generate the signals. Then, after the variables are aggregated, a signal is issued, depending on the behavior of the composite index. (Kaminsky's procedure was to generate signals with each variable and then aggregate them.) Their results are satisfactory both statistically and operationally. Statistically, Type I and Type II errors are smaller than those reported in previous papers. Operationally, this system of leading indicators is less costly to maintain, given fewer variables - which are widely available and reported with timeliness. Herrera and Garcia tested the models' out-of-sample predictive ability on crises that occurred after the first stage of their project was finished: Colombia (September 1998), Brazil (January 1999), and Ecuador (February 1999). In all cases the models correctly anticipated the speculative attacks. Moreover, Mexico's models, estimated with information available two years before the 1994 crisis, show that these signaling devices would have been useful for signaling the macroeconomic vulnerability before December 1994. This paper - a product of the Economic Policy Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to build tools that policymakers can use to prevent crises. The authors may be contacted at cgarciacorado@worldbank.org or sherrera@worldbank.org Online-Ausg Arts and Music Banking Crises Credit Growth Culture & Development Currency Currency Crises Debt Markets Domestic Cred Exchange Economic Conditions and Volatility Economic Theory and Research Educational Technology and Distance Learning Exchange Rate Federal Reserve Federal Reserve System Finance and Financial Sector Development Financial Crises Financial Literacy Geographical Information Systems Good Inflation Inflation Rate Information Security and Privacy Instrument Interest Interest Rates Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Market Markets and Market Access Options Real Exchange Rate Reserves Science and Technology Development Statistical and Mathematical Sciences Garcia, Conrado Sonstige oth Herrera, Santiago Sonstige oth Herrera, Santiago User's Guide to an Early Warning System for Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Latin American Countries http://elibrary.worldbank.org/content/workingpaper/10.1596/1813-9450-2233 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Herrera, Santiago User's Guide to an Early Warning System for Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Latin American Countries Arts and Music Banking Crises Credit Growth Culture & Development Currency Currency Crises Debt Markets Domestic Cred Exchange Economic Conditions and Volatility Economic Theory and Research Educational Technology and Distance Learning Exchange Rate Federal Reserve Federal Reserve System Finance and Financial Sector Development Financial Crises Financial Literacy Geographical Information Systems Good Inflation Inflation Rate Information Security and Privacy Instrument Interest Interest Rates Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Market Markets and Market Access Options Real Exchange Rate Reserves Science and Technology Development Statistical and Mathematical Sciences |
| title | User's Guide to an Early Warning System for Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Latin American Countries |
| title_auth | User's Guide to an Early Warning System for Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Latin American Countries |
| title_exact_search | User's Guide to an Early Warning System for Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Latin American Countries |
| title_exact_search_txtP | User's Guide to an Early Warning System for Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Latin American Countries |
| title_full | User's Guide to an Early Warning System for Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Latin American Countries Herrera, Santiago |
| title_fullStr | User's Guide to an Early Warning System for Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Latin American Countries Herrera, Santiago |
| title_full_unstemmed | User's Guide to an Early Warning System for Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Latin American Countries Herrera, Santiago |
| title_short | User's Guide to an Early Warning System for Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Latin American Countries |
| title_sort | user s guide to an early warning system for macroeconomic vulnerability in latin american countries |
| topic | Arts and Music Banking Crises Credit Growth Culture & Development Currency Currency Crises Debt Markets Domestic Cred Exchange Economic Conditions and Volatility Economic Theory and Research Educational Technology and Distance Learning Exchange Rate Federal Reserve Federal Reserve System Finance and Financial Sector Development Financial Crises Financial Literacy Geographical Information Systems Good Inflation Inflation Rate Information Security and Privacy Instrument Interest Interest Rates Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Market Markets and Market Access Options Real Exchange Rate Reserves Science and Technology Development Statistical and Mathematical Sciences |
| topic_facet | Arts and Music Banking Crises Credit Growth Culture & Development Currency Currency Crises Debt Markets Domestic Cred Exchange Economic Conditions and Volatility Economic Theory and Research Educational Technology and Distance Learning Exchange Rate Federal Reserve Federal Reserve System Finance and Financial Sector Development Financial Crises Financial Literacy Geographical Information Systems Good Inflation Inflation Rate Information Security and Privacy Instrument Interest Interest Rates Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Market Markets and Market Access Options Real Exchange Rate Reserves Science and Technology Development Statistical and Mathematical Sciences |
| url | http://elibrary.worldbank.org/content/workingpaper/10.1596/1813-9450-2233 |
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