Output Fluctuations in Latin America: What Explains the Recent Slowdown?
May 2000 - For the period 1992-98, domestic factors explain most output variability in Latin America. However, external factors account for about 60 percent of the 1998-99 slowdown - perhaps in part because external variables were more volatile during this period, but mainly because domestic variabl...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
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The World Bank
1999
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| Online-Zugang: | BSB01 EUV01 HTW01 FHI01 IOS01 URL des Erstveröffentlichers |
| Zusammenfassung: | May 2000 - For the period 1992-98, domestic factors explain most output variability in Latin America. However, external factors account for about 60 percent of the 1998-99 slowdown - perhaps in part because external variables were more volatile during this period, but mainly because domestic variables - real interest rates and real exchange rates - were more stable in these two years. Herrera, Perry, and Quintero explain Latin America's growth slowdown in 1998-99. To do so, they use two complementary methodologies. The first aims at determining how much of the slowdown can be explained by specific external factors: the terms of trade, international interest rates, spreads on external debt, capital flows, and climatological factors (El Niño). Using quarterly GDP data for the eight largest countries in the region, the authors estimate a dynamic panel showing that 50 - 60 percent of the slowdown was due to these external factors. The second approach allows for effects on output by some endogenous variables, such as domestic real interest rates and real exchange rates. Using monthly industrial production data, the authors estimate country-specific generalized vector autoregressions (GVAR) for the largest countries. They find that during the sample period (1992-98) output volatility is mostly associated with shocks to domestic factors, but the slowdown in the subperiod 1998-99 is explained more than 60 percent by shocks to the external factors. This paper - a product of the Economic Policy Sector Unit and the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Latin America and Caribbean Regional Office - is part of a larger effort to understand output fluctuations and growth in the region. The authors may be contacted at gperry@worldbank.org or nquintero@worldbank.org |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (68 Seiten)) |
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| spelling | Herrera, Santiago Verfasser aut Output Fluctuations in Latin America What Explains the Recent Slowdown? Herrera, Santiago Washington, D.C The World Bank 1999 1 Online-Ressource (68 Seiten)) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier May 2000 - For the period 1992-98, domestic factors explain most output variability in Latin America. However, external factors account for about 60 percent of the 1998-99 slowdown - perhaps in part because external variables were more volatile during this period, but mainly because domestic variables - real interest rates and real exchange rates - were more stable in these two years. Herrera, Perry, and Quintero explain Latin America's growth slowdown in 1998-99. To do so, they use two complementary methodologies. The first aims at determining how much of the slowdown can be explained by specific external factors: the terms of trade, international interest rates, spreads on external debt, capital flows, and climatological factors (El Niño). Using quarterly GDP data for the eight largest countries in the region, the authors estimate a dynamic panel showing that 50 - 60 percent of the slowdown was due to these external factors. The second approach allows for effects on output by some endogenous variables, such as domestic real interest rates and real exchange rates. Using monthly industrial production data, the authors estimate country-specific generalized vector autoregressions (GVAR) for the largest countries. They find that during the sample period (1992-98) output volatility is mostly associated with shocks to domestic factors, but the slowdown in the subperiod 1998-99 is explained more than 60 percent by shocks to the external factors. This paper - a product of the Economic Policy Sector Unit and the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Latin America and Caribbean Regional Office - is part of a larger effort to understand output fluctuations and growth in the region. The authors may be contacted at gperry@worldbank.org or nquintero@worldbank.org Online-Ausg Accounting Bond Bonds Business Cycles Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies Capital Flows Capital Markets Currencies and Exchange Rates Debt Markets Domestic Interest Rates Economic Stabilization Economic Theory and Research Emerging Markets Exchange External Debt Finance and Financial Sector Development Financial Literacy Gross Domestic Product Interest Rates International Development International Interest Investment and Investment Climate Macroeconomic Management Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Poverty Reduction Private Sector Development Pro-Poor Growth Real Exchange Rate Real Exchange Rates Real Interest Real Interest Rate Real Interest Rates Share Sovereign Debt Perry, Guillermo Sonstige oth Quintero, Neile Sonstige oth Herrera, Santiago Sonstige oth Herrera, Santiago Output Fluctuations in Latin America http://elibrary.worldbank.org/content/workingpaper/10.1596/1813-9450-2333 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Herrera, Santiago Output Fluctuations in Latin America What Explains the Recent Slowdown? Accounting Bond Bonds Business Cycles Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies Capital Flows Capital Markets Currencies and Exchange Rates Debt Markets Domestic Interest Rates Economic Stabilization Economic Theory and Research Emerging Markets Exchange External Debt Finance and Financial Sector Development Financial Literacy Gross Domestic Product Interest Rates International Development International Interest Investment and Investment Climate Macroeconomic Management Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Poverty Reduction Private Sector Development Pro-Poor Growth Real Exchange Rate Real Exchange Rates Real Interest Real Interest Rate Real Interest Rates Share Sovereign Debt |
| title | Output Fluctuations in Latin America What Explains the Recent Slowdown? |
| title_auth | Output Fluctuations in Latin America What Explains the Recent Slowdown? |
| title_exact_search | Output Fluctuations in Latin America What Explains the Recent Slowdown? |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Output Fluctuations in Latin America What Explains the Recent Slowdown? |
| title_full | Output Fluctuations in Latin America What Explains the Recent Slowdown? Herrera, Santiago |
| title_fullStr | Output Fluctuations in Latin America What Explains the Recent Slowdown? Herrera, Santiago |
| title_full_unstemmed | Output Fluctuations in Latin America What Explains the Recent Slowdown? Herrera, Santiago |
| title_short | Output Fluctuations in Latin America |
| title_sort | output fluctuations in latin america what explains the recent slowdown |
| title_sub | What Explains the Recent Slowdown? |
| topic | Accounting Bond Bonds Business Cycles Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies Capital Flows Capital Markets Currencies and Exchange Rates Debt Markets Domestic Interest Rates Economic Stabilization Economic Theory and Research Emerging Markets Exchange External Debt Finance and Financial Sector Development Financial Literacy Gross Domestic Product Interest Rates International Development International Interest Investment and Investment Climate Macroeconomic Management Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Poverty Reduction Private Sector Development Pro-Poor Growth Real Exchange Rate Real Exchange Rates Real Interest Real Interest Rate Real Interest Rates Share Sovereign Debt |
| topic_facet | Accounting Bond Bonds Business Cycles Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies Capital Flows Capital Markets Currencies and Exchange Rates Debt Markets Domestic Interest Rates Economic Stabilization Economic Theory and Research Emerging Markets Exchange External Debt Finance and Financial Sector Development Financial Literacy Gross Domestic Product Interest Rates International Development International Interest Investment and Investment Climate Macroeconomic Management Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Poverty Reduction Private Sector Development Pro-Poor Growth Real Exchange Rate Real Exchange Rates Real Interest Real Interest Rate Real Interest Rates Share Sovereign Debt |
| url | http://elibrary.worldbank.org/content/workingpaper/10.1596/1813-9450-2333 |
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