Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela: A Structural Time Series Approach
Real GDP and oil prices are decomposed into common stochastic trend and cycle processes using structural time series models. Potential real GDP is represented by the level of the trend component of real GDP. The potential rate of growth of real GDP is represented by the stochastic drift element of t...
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| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
The World Bank
2002
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | BSB01 EUV01 HTW01 FHI01 IOS01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Real GDP and oil prices are decomposed into common stochastic trend and cycle processes using structural time series models. Potential real GDP is represented by the level of the trend component of real GDP. The potential rate of growth of real GDP is represented by the stochastic drift element of the trend component. Cuevas finds that there is a strong association at the trend and cycle frequencies between real GDP and the real price of oil. This association is also robust in the presence of key economic policy variables. From 1970-80, when the underlying annual rate of increase of the real price of oil was 12 percent, the underlying annual rate of increase of potential GDP in Venezuela was 2.6 percent. By contrast, from 1981-2000 when the underlying rate of increase of the real price of oil was -5 percent, the underlying growth rate of potential GDP fell 1.5 percent. However, the strength of association between the underlying growth of oil prices and real GDP has fallen considerably since the early 1980s, suggesting that oil cannot be relied on as an engine for future growth in Venezuela. This paper-a product of the Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to encourage research on macroeconomic issues. The author may be contacted at mcuevas@worldbank.org |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten)) |
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| spelling | Cuevas, A. Mario Verfasser aut Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach Cuevas, A. Mario Washington, D.C The World Bank 2002 1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten)) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Real GDP and oil prices are decomposed into common stochastic trend and cycle processes using structural time series models. Potential real GDP is represented by the level of the trend component of real GDP. The potential rate of growth of real GDP is represented by the stochastic drift element of the trend component. Cuevas finds that there is a strong association at the trend and cycle frequencies between real GDP and the real price of oil. This association is also robust in the presence of key economic policy variables. From 1970-80, when the underlying annual rate of increase of the real price of oil was 12 percent, the underlying annual rate of increase of potential GDP in Venezuela was 2.6 percent. By contrast, from 1981-2000 when the underlying rate of increase of the real price of oil was -5 percent, the underlying growth rate of potential GDP fell 1.5 percent. However, the strength of association between the underlying growth of oil prices and real GDP has fallen considerably since the early 1980s, suggesting that oil cannot be relied on as an engine for future growth in Venezuela. This paper-a product of the Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to encourage research on macroeconomic issues. The author may be contacted at mcuevas@worldbank.org Online-Ausg Business Cycles Climate Change Currencies and Exchange Rates Debt Markets Econometrics Economic Fluctuations Economic Performance Economic Theory and Research Emerging Markets Energy Energy Demand Environment Exogenous Variables Exports Finance and Financial Sector Development Growth Potential Growth Rate Industry Interest Interest Rate Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Markets and Market Access Oil and Gas Industry Private Sector Development Cuevas, A. Mario Sonstige oth Cuevas, A. Mario Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela http://elibrary.worldbank.org/content/workingpaper/10.1596/1813-9450-2826 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Cuevas, A. Mario Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach Business Cycles Climate Change Currencies and Exchange Rates Debt Markets Econometrics Economic Fluctuations Economic Performance Economic Theory and Research Emerging Markets Energy Energy Demand Environment Exogenous Variables Exports Finance and Financial Sector Development Growth Potential Growth Rate Industry Interest Interest Rate Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Markets and Market Access Oil and Gas Industry Private Sector Development |
| title | Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach |
| title_auth | Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach |
| title_exact_search | Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach |
| title_full | Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach Cuevas, A. Mario |
| title_fullStr | Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach Cuevas, A. Mario |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach Cuevas, A. Mario |
| title_short | Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela |
| title_sort | potential gdp growth in venezuela a structural time series approach |
| title_sub | A Structural Time Series Approach |
| topic | Business Cycles Climate Change Currencies and Exchange Rates Debt Markets Econometrics Economic Fluctuations Economic Performance Economic Theory and Research Emerging Markets Energy Energy Demand Environment Exogenous Variables Exports Finance and Financial Sector Development Growth Potential Growth Rate Industry Interest Interest Rate Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Markets and Market Access Oil and Gas Industry Private Sector Development |
| topic_facet | Business Cycles Climate Change Currencies and Exchange Rates Debt Markets Econometrics Economic Fluctuations Economic Performance Economic Theory and Research Emerging Markets Energy Energy Demand Environment Exogenous Variables Exports Finance and Financial Sector Development Growth Potential Growth Rate Industry Interest Interest Rate Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Markets and Market Access Oil and Gas Industry Private Sector Development |
| url | http://elibrary.worldbank.org/content/workingpaper/10.1596/1813-9450-2826 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cuevasamario potentialgdpgrowthinvenezuelaastructuraltimeseriesapproach |