The will to predict: orchestrating the future through science
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Cornell University Press
2023
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Contents Acknowledgments List of Abbreviations Note on Translation and Transliteration Introduction ix xiii xv 1 1. What Is Scientific Prediction? 15 2. Visibility, Transparency, and Prediction 38 3. Cybernetic Prediction and Late Modern Governance 58 4. Forecasting and the Cybernetic Sensibility 72 5. Prediction and the Opaque: Prospective Reflexivity 102 6. Reflexive Control 122 7. Global Prediction: From Targeting to Orchestration 150 Conclusion 183 Notes Bibliography Index 195 249 277
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Index Page numbers followed by ƒ or n indicate figures or notes. Abbott, Kenneth, 8 accountability, 100 action-oriented learning, 113 action-oriented prediction processing, 35 actor-network theory, 10, 18 adaptation: “non-modern,” 37; reflexive, 129, 151; strategy of nature, 169 adaptive behavior: open-ended, 62; prognosis as component of, 51; role of prediction, 70; supported by information processing, 106 Afanas’ev, Georgii, 131 Aganbegian, Abel, 80, 97 Algebra of Conflict, The (1968), 135,140 algorithms: of global development, 14; predictions, 12, 27, 188; profiling, 70 All-Union Institute for Systems Research (VNIISI), 93, 97, 111, 135 Anchishkin, Aleksandr, 80, 97 Andersson, Jenny, 3 Andromeda Nebula (1957), 9,93 antecedent conditions, 24-26, 31 Anthropocene, 14, 155-56, 163-64 antiaircraft systems, 60,64,132,169 Arab-Ogly, Edvard, 88-89, 220n98 Arendt, Hannah, 59, 102 Aronova, Elena, 83 Arrow, Kenneth, 176 artificial intelligence (AI): influence of cybernetics, 32; research, 67,125; Wiener’s impact in field, 59 Ashby, W. Ross, 13, 33, 129 astrology, 20, 38,45,99 astronomical vs, meteorological systems, 66 astronomy, 22, 66, 133 authoritarianism: cybernetic, 12, 59; environmental, 13, 189; hidden liberal, 244n90; neoliberal, 233n32; positivist, 26; “scientific”, 58; Soviet, 12; technocratic, 3 “autohypnosis” by numbers, 53, 54, 96, 175 automata theory, 15 Automated System of Analysis of Social Information (ASAI), 86 automation: age of, 71; Arendt’s critique, 59; technologies, 10 autopoiesis, 32-33, 110, 114 Bacon, Francis, 21 Bateson, Gregory: model oflearning, 129;
model of self, 233n35 Bauman, Zygmunt, 176-77 Bazarov, Vladimir, 52, 57 Beer, Stafford, 139, 176, 188 behaviorism, 26; cybernetic, 129, 131, 151,231; methods of time control, 55; neurophysi ological, 34-35; Skinnerian, 26, 32,154, 231Ո12 Bekhterev, Vladimir, 46, 51 Beloiarsk power plant, 115 Bennett, Tony, 128,179, 180, 206-7n43 Berg, Axsel, 137 Bernshtein, Nikolai, 55, 109 Bestuzhev-Lada, Igor’, 86-96, 98,219n86, 221Ո117 Biermann, Frank, 181 Bigelow, Julian, 31,62, 106 Big Science, 105 biogeocenose, 160 biological determinism, 59 Biosphere, The (1926) biosphere: governing the, 156,163; man as manager of, 169; modeling, 161,164; and noosphere, 165-67; Moiseev’s use of idea, 162,172-73; origin, 155; history of term, 165; theory, 173-76, 178-81, 210n99; Vernadiskii’s theory, 159 Birshtein, Maria, 113 blat, 102 Bogdanov, Aleksandr, 167,242n45 Boolean algebra, 141,145,148 bottom-up processing, 33,106 Bound, John, 29 brain, the: acting machine model, 33; activity, 33; digital model of, 31; predictive, 33-35 brain drain, 137,164 Breev, Boris, 80 277
278 INDEX Brezhnev, Leonid, 78, НО, 136,137 Bryant, Christopher, 143 Budyko, Mikhail, 93, 131, 165, 166 Buniakovskii, Viktor, 43 Canguilhem, Georges, 59,154 Carter, Chris, 146, 147 causalities, 50,66 causal loop, 19,192 censorship, 85 Central Institute of Mathematical Economics at the All-Union Academy of Sciences (TsEMI), 77, 100, 135, 137 Central Statistical Agency, 47, 218n58 Centre for Intellectual Resources and Cooperation in Societal Sciences (TsIRKON), 98,223Ո160 Chayanov, Aleksandr, 46 Chernobyl, 164 chronology, problem of, 24, 54 Cicero, 16-17 circular causality, 31,62, 203n68 Clark, Andy, 34-35 Clegg, Stewart, 146,147 climate change crisis, 13, 94, 150 climate engineering, 93 “closed worlds”, 12 coevolution: conditions for, 169; definitions, 166; global, 155,167; organizational forms, 168, 181 cognition: abstract models, 146; coordinating with action, 35; cybernetic approaches, 33; form of power, 147; higher levels, 34; part of social interaction, 113; self-reflexive model, 125, 129; Skinner’s perspective, 26; special form of power, 190 cognitive valuation theory, 138 Cold War: competition, 60, 75, 183; moder nity, 146,150; politics, 99, 125; strategy, 12, 13, 139, 140-41,148; totalitarianism, 12; uses of scientific prediction, 5. See also Neumann, John von: game theory of strategy collapse of Soviet system, 190-191 collective preferences, 13 Collier, Stephen, 52, 78,117 commonsense knowledge, 24,189 commonsense notion of prediction, 192, 199n4 Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU),5,12, 110, 156, 164, 191 complexity, levels, 35-36, 50, 153,168, 172, 177,
188 Computer Centre, Soviet Academy of Sciences, 159, 162,166,181 computer modeling: “alternative social sciences”, 97; global, 156, 166; in policy sciences, 33; as social practice, 167,177-79 Comte, Auguste: influence in Russia, 39,43, 49-50, 94; positivist tradition of, 28,39,48, 153, 170,189; on science and prediction, 21-22,150-51 Conflicting Structures (1967), 135 conjectural knowledge(s), 18-21,175 conjectural science (sciencia coniecturalis), 18 conjectural semiology, 19 conjecture: astrological, 52; Greek tradition of conjecture, 16-17; prediction as, 15,16-20; process of, 71; status of, 21 Conjuncture Institute, Moscow, 47,48, 56 consciousness, 140 control: behavioral, 12, 55,109,187; guidance, as, 180; problem of, 15, 59; semiotic strategy of, 110; revolution, 163; societal, 3, 60, 179; Soviet definition, 171; teleological, 169,170, 175. See also guided development; reflexive control theory: practical of; cybernetic control control science, 60 corruption, 97, 103 Course de philosophie positive (1830-1842), 21-22 Covid-19, 188 Craik, Kenneth, 68 Crimea: annexation of, 43,87,146; War (1853-1856), 13 critical thresholds, 173 Crutzen, Paul, 155-56, 163, 164, 173 cultivation, 176-177 cultural sector, 89 culture of forecasting, 12 cultures of prediction, 4, 45, 71,206n37 cumulative prognosis, 28. See also prognosis curve fitting, 29 cybernation, 187 cybernetic control, 32,59,60, 63, 152,171-73. See also control: teleological cybernetic engineering systems, 73, 169 cybernetic prediction: critics, 69-71; influence, 11; materially mediated, 67; misuse for domination, 63;
orchestration, 68, 71,173; use for social governance, 64; Wienerian, 59-62. See also governance cybernetics: biological, 167; interest in goal-oriented processes, 59; history of, 31, 57-59; institutionalization, 139; “non-modern
INDEX science”, 36; posthuman effect, 67; science of governance, 72-73,80; second-order, 9,32, 114,139,231Ո15; Soviet, 72,137, 212nll Cybernetics: Or Control and Communication in the Animal and the Machine (1948), 32,68 cybernetic sensibility, 12,15,27-30, 72, 186 cybernetic steering, 9,171 data collection, 7,79,178,185 Dayé, Christian, 3 deception: activities of, 142,146-47; “anomic behavior”, 124; in combat situations, 132; legitimatizing, 131; logical machine of, 133; making outcomes predictable, 123; strategic, 36, 124,187 decision science, 113,140, 145 decision trees, 19 deduction: logical, 25/ 123; problem of, 28, 50 Delphi method, 88,95,220n94, 222Ո140 demographic research, 43, 82, 218n58 Denyer, Nicholas, 18 Deutsch, Karl, 107, 187 digital computer(s), 31, 33, 132 digitization of labor, 32 disarmament talks, Reykjavik, 125, 139 divination, 16-18,200n8 Dobrov, Genadii, 77,87, 216n27 Douglas, Heather, 26-7 Druzhinin, Valentin V., 136 Durkheim, Émile, 22, 49, 124 dynamic systems, 59,152, 202n48 Earth system science(s), 12,163,175, 181. See also governmentality: Earth system economic forecasting: critical approach, 185; demand for, 48; emergence, 184 economic growth: social indicators, 160; Soviet, 78,159; Soviet theory of, 47; “problem”, 171; statistical modeling, 50 economic indicators, 47 economic planning: models influencing, 15, 77, 184; reforms, 156; Soviet, 40, 54, 74, 85 economics: capitalist, 2; development of, 76; industrial, 145; scientific approaches to, 113; ungovernability of, 161 economy: evolution of, 208n60; models of, 51, 167; “not a mosaic”, 51;
sectors, 47 economy of favors, 102, 160, 186 Efimov, Anatolit, 76,79 Efremov, Ivan, 91, 220-2ІПІ11 Ehrenberg, Andrew, 29 Ellman, Michael, 190 emergent behavior, 63,67 279 empathy, 134 engineering: cybernetic systems in, 73, 202n48; teleological prediction applied, 106. See also systems engineering Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, An, (1748) environment, the: application of cybernetic prediction, 65; hybrid system, 160; interactions with, 129; term, 159. See also environmental governance; global environmental change environmental governance, 155, 162, 167, 171, 177,181 environmental systems. See Earth system science(s) epistemology: cybernetic, 69, 73; empirical, 26; of forecasting, 85; of governance, 60, 160,173-180; heuristic, 99; medical, 41; modern scientific, 36; neoliberal, 174; of order, 55; postpositivist, 157; scientific, 3, 11, 36,68; of scientific prediction, 19, 50, 51, 99, 185; social constructivist, 128; of social prediction, 93; of transparency, 59 equilibrium: of economy, 48, 207n55; of Earth, 170 Ereshko, Feliks, 135 ergonomics, 78 Erlich, Paul, 166 Ershov, Emil’, 77, 80 ethics: collectives guided by, 68; vanish in reflexive control model, 143,177 ethnic profiling, 188 ethnogenesis, 45, 206n31 Euler, Leonhard, 42 evolution: biosphere, 173, 244n87; brain, 34; Darwinian theory, 41,45; development paths, 207n52; economy, 208n60; epistemol ogy of, 69; guided, 244n91; social/human, 49, 83,128; of Soviet system, 191; statistical measurement of, 186 expert surveys, 90, 95 explanans, 23-25 extrapolatory prediction, 30, 61, 94 failure of prediction, 189-93
falsifiability, 27, 81,99, 143 Fedorov, Evgenii, 131, 163,165, 166, 170, 243n64 feedback loops, 12,13, 31, 33, 59-62,152,187 Feldman, Grigoril, 47, 83 Fidora, Alexander, 18-20 finance, reflexivity in, 143 Five-Year Plan, first, 51-53
280 INDEX Flanagan, Owen, 127 Flechtheim, Ossip, 87, 219n88 Forecast (1901), 87, 94 forecasting: Soviet scientific, 42, 78, 88, 96, 99-100, 103, 105,118; Soviet social, 82-93, 96, 98. See also statistical forecasting foretelling, 19, 71 formal knowledge, 105 Forrester, Jay, 166, 228n61 forward-prediction model, 35-36 Foucault, Michel, 126-27, 153-54,197n24 foundations, 41; institutional landscape, 98; limits, 39; macroeconomic, 47; in postrevo lutionary Russia, 184. See also Soviet economy, forecasting Foundations of the Mathematical Theory of Probabilities (1846), 43 French government, 76 Fundamentals ofEcology (1953), 165 future, the: problem of, 23; intrinsic association with prediction, 200nl0 future-making, 3 Future ofHumanity and the Earth, The (1928), 87 future studies, 3, 86,87, 91, 196nl6 future-telling, 2 futurology, 87, 219n88 Gaia modeling system, 166,181 Gaia theory, 166,170 Galanskov, Iurii, 111 Galison, Peter, 60, 70 Gamblers, The (1842), 123 games. See Shchedrovitskii, G.P., activity/ simulation games and Stalin, Joseph: ban on activity games Games and Decisions (1957), 133 game theory, 4,63, 133-34, 140,142 Game Theory and Economic Behavior (1944), 134 “garbage can” model, 8 “gardening state”, 176-77 Gastev, Aleksei, 55, 57 general effects, 21 general laws: how formulated, 22-24,25/ 44, 50,64; for populations and societies, 41,64. See also antecedent conditions General Staff (Genshtab), 136 Geneva school neoliberals, 11, 175 geological force, humanity as, 151,155, 162-63, 166, 168 Geroulanos, Stefano, 40, 59, 87, 173,205nll Gerovitch, Slava, 72,212nll
Giddens, Anthony, 128n232 Ginzburg, Aleksander, 111 glasnost’, 40-41, 80-81, 93,164,191,204n7 Glazyev, Sergei, 98, 223nl58 global climate crisis, 2,166, 183 global environmental change: due to human activities, 168; imagination of, 159; impact of nuclear war, 138; limits of, 172,176 global governance, 36,154-55,164,167-69, 172-174, 180; as guidance, 171,178,179,181, 184,186; nongovernability, 155, 174 globalists, neoliberal, 67,157,175-176,245nl06 global modeling, 164,166, 178-179 Glushkov, Viktor, 77,159,171, 176,188 goal-seeking behavior, 13,73, 106,112,225nl9 goal-setting, 12-13,106-7,115 Gorbachev, Mikhail: disarmament talks, 125, reforms, 97, 104, 139,164, 177; new approaches to governance, 156, 181 Gosplan, 52, 57, 76,78-81, 90,160, 171 governance: of complexity, 164,181,198nl34; diverging approaches, 55; embodied, social, 117; indirect, 8; habit vs. reflexivity in, 128; limited/ negative, 154-55; network, 107,197; by numbers, 41-43; purposive control, 15, 171, 181; “science”, 80; Soviet scientific, 105, 131; technocratic, 117; without reliable data, 100. See also environmental governance; global governance; milieu, governance through; target-oriented governance governmentality: Cold War, 70,189; Earth system, 151,170-71; globally-integrated, 181; liberal, 129, 244; neoliberal, 153; of noosphere, 173; scholarship, 197n24; Soviet, 81, 154, 175, 179; Soviet Earth system, 154, 180; system-cybernetic, 9,173; types of, 78 Gramelsberger, Gabriele, 30 Gregory, Paul, 57, 99,211Ո103 Grimanelli, Pericles, 48,208n60 Grushin, Boris, 84, 92, 93,108 guidance: negative, 173,177,
188; through milieu, 151, 155, 179,184,186 guided development, 173,244n91 Gumilev, Lev, 165,246nl28 Gvishiani, Dzhermen, 78,97, 168 habit: cycle of corrections, 129; vs. reflexivity, 128 Hayek, Friedrich von, 155, 160-61, 167, 173, 174,176 Hayles, Katherine, 67 Heidegger, Martin, 59 Helmer, Olaf, 88
INDEX Hempel, Carl, 23-25,87, 88, 99 heuristics: character of forecasts, 99; climate science, 180; information processing, 106 Heymann, Matthias, 30 “high modernist state”, 105 Hippocrates, 19 homeostasis, 170 human body, 19 Human Condition, The (1958), 59 humans, as prediction machines, 68 Hume, David, 21 Humean gap, 21,23,34 hypotheses: incomplete explanations, 25; “five-year”, 53; flawed, 144; forecasts as, 54; predictive, 209n69 If the World Disarms (1961), 93 induction, Hume’s problem of, 21 informality: in decision-making, 96; importance of, 106; legitimizing, 13, 107; mobilizing, 112; orchestrating, 119; social, 103,186; sources of corruption, 103 information: conceptual split re matter, 67; quantum theory, 66; Weiner’s view, 32,62,66 informational warfare, 122,146-47 information theory, 66,67, 95,104 information transmission, “a predictive cascade”, 34-35 input-output model, 7,13, 34, 56, 80, 105, 119, 185 Institute for the International Labor Movement (IMRD), 89,110 Institute of Concrete Social Research (IKSI/ ISI), 83-86, 89-93,96, 137,218n58, 219n84 Institute of Future, 88 Institute of Psychoneurology, 46 institutes of agreement, 175, 181 institutional design, 40, 104,181,224nl2 International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (HASA), 57,97, 138,156, 174 International Sociology Association (ISA), 83, 89,91 interpolative prediction, 29 Introduction to Analysis of the Infinite (1748), 42 Isidore of Seville, 18 Ivanov, Viacheslav, 109,131 Joel, Isaac, 140 Johnson, Ann, 3 Jungk, Robert, 81, 88, 91, 22ІПІ24 Kahn, Herman, 88 Kant, Immanuel, 128 281 Kantorovich,
Leonid, 75, 80, 208n57 Kerzhentsev, Platon, 55, 57 KGB (State Security Committee), 85, 95, 109, 135-36, 204n7, 222Ո141,225n21 Khristenko, Viktor, 105, 225nl3 Khrushchev, Nikita, 75, 78, 83, 109, 110, 158 Kline, Ronald, 31 Knight, Frank. H., 30-31, 33 knowledge of unknowns (premodern), 16, 17 knowledge transfer, 12 known and unknown events, 49 Kondrat’ev, Nikolai: death, 56; and early Soviet planning, 46-52; pioneer of forecasting, 11; prevision idea, 53, 79,184; value of indicative forecasts, 161; influence of Grimanelli, 208n62 Koopmans, Tjalling, 161 Kornberger, Martin, 146,147 Kosygin, Aleksei, 77, 78, 97,159 Kovalevskii, Mikhail, 46,48 Kovda, Viktor, 165 Krementsov, Nikolai, 44 Kurakin, Boris, 45 Landa, Lev, 110 Landau, Lev language: cybernetic, 63,109; of formal logic, 140; mathematical, 178; statistical, 23 Lankina, Tornila, 158,226n32 Laplace, Pierre-Simon: influence in Russia, 43, 55; Laplacian “Dream”, 209n67; model of economy and society, 167; notion of perfect knowledge, 176; simplistic approach, 55; social physics, 49 Latour, Bruno, 148 Lavrent’ev, Mikhail, 158, 159,241n30 League of Time, the, 55 Ledeneva, Alena, 103, 186 Lefebvre, Viktorina, 137,138 Lefebvre, Vladimir, 13,110, 123,125,131-48, 184 Leontief, Wassily, 56, 77,207n52 Lepskii, Vladimir, 131, 23Խ11, 23Խ15, 235n60 limits: thinking from, 166,177; setting, 173; shift from targets, 176; use of prohibitions with, 172; Limits to Growth, The (1972), 94, 162,166 linear causality, 31,66. See also causalities linear model of prediction —» action, 30 living standards forecasts, 85 logical empiricism, 21, 26,
64,151, 153,172,191 logics of prediction: cybernetic, 73; positivist, 73
282 INDEX Long Wave Cycle, The (1928), 56 Lovelock, James, 152, 160, 166, 170 Luce, Duncan, 133 Luria, Alexander, 51 Lyapunov, Aleksandr, 159 machine translation, 61, 62, 109 macroeconomics: forecasting, 47; models, 161; problems, 76; statistics, 56 Macy conferences on cybernetics, 61,129 Mahony, Martin, 30 Maksimenko, Vitalii, 95 Mamardashvili, Merab,89, 108 management: cybernetization of, 73, 78; Moiseev’s use of term, 169; professionaliza tion in Russia, 13; reflexive control, 143; as resource orchestration, 8; Soviet, 54, 57, 78, 84, 104, 105,114, 171; uses of statistical prediction, 6; time in, 55; type of gover nance, 181. See also scientific management; Shchedrovitskii, G. P.; Taylorism Man and Noosphere (1990), 162 Manichean sciences, 60 manipulation, 36,123, 124, 144,147,149, 232nl6 mantie knowledge: Chinese version, 17; declining status, 29; shift to prognosis, 18, 174; transition from, 4 mantie practice: ancient, 19; premodern notions, 6 mantie science: etymology, 16; typologies, 18,37 mantike, 16-17 Marx, Karl: Capital, 108, 109; insufficient model of society, 167; producer goods vs. consumer goods, 47 Marxism-Leninism, 109, 134 “Mastery of Time as the Key Task in the Organization of Work, The” (1924) materiality question, 67 mathematical modeling: of biosphere, 166; Moiseev’s competence in, 162, 178; of reflexive processes, 134; for Soviet economy, 80 mathematics: methods, 3, 54; role of, 42 Matlock, Jack, 138, 139 McCulloch, Warren, 31,133 McLuhan, Marshall, 187 Meadows, Dennis, 160,166, 21ІПІ06 Meadows, Donella, 160 medical prognosis, 19 medicine, 19-20
Meninas o La Familia de Felipe IV, Las (1656), 126/-27, 143 Merton, Robert, 83,123,192 Middle Ages, European, 18 milieu(s): concept, 153; Foucault’s use of, 154; milieu, governance through, 13, 151, 165, 178-180, 184,186. See also guidance: through milieu militarism, culture of, 136 military decision-making, 132 military-industrial complex: USA, 88,145; USSR, 93, 109, 158-59, 216n28 military research, 77 military strategy, 110,125,135,144 military technology, 12,77 Mirowski, Philip, 49, 209n67 modernity, reflexive, 128. See also Cold War: modernity modernization: Eurocentric narrative of, 4; Soviet, 181,192; theory, 83; trap, 103 “modern man”, the, 41,44 Moiseev, Nikita: biosphere and noosphere, 165-67; on complexity, uncertainties, 188, 209n75; contribution, 15,180-82; family background, 157-58; global concerns, 11, 155-56,168-71,178-79; governance as guidance approach, 54, 174-78; intellectual biography, 159-64; orchestration in, 173; prescriptive vs prohibitive approaches, 172 Morgenstein, Oskar, 134 Moscow Methodological Circle, 12, 98,104, 108-9, 111, 134 Murav’ev, Valerian, 55, 57 mutual assured destruction (MAD), 122 natural givens, 180 nauchnaia organizatsiia truda (NOT), 54, 73, 86 negotiation models/strategies, 125, 139 neoliberalism, 174 Nerves of Government, The (1963), 107 Neumann, John von: influence on Lefebvre, 134; game theory of strategy, 63 neural networks, 31, 33, 37, 59,106,107 neural systems modes, 133 neurophysiology, 32, 34,50, 69 neuropsychology, Soviet, 51 neuroscience, 35 New Cold War, 146 New Economic Policy (NEP), 113 Nietzsche, Friedrich, 1
nooscope, 165 noosphere: de Chardin vs. Vernadiskii, 155; governmentality of, 173; Moiseev’s work on, 162-64,166,172,179-81; Russian legacy,
INDEX 180,240nl7,246nl28; Vernadiskii’s vision of, 166 Northcott, Robert, 26,27, 99 now-casting, 29 nuclear disarmament, 163,177,181. See also disarmament talks nuclear energy, 115 nuclear war, 88,93,138, 181, 191 nuclear winter study, 156,163,170, 181 numbers: avalanche, 174; large sets of, 30; reliability, 28; transparency, 39,101; visibility, 56. See also governance: by numbers; “autohypnosis” by numbers; statistical forecasting numerical representation, 29,167 observation, continuous, 10, 35, 72, 152 Odum, Eugene, 165 OGAS project, 171 Oldfield, Jonathan, 159 “On the Problem of Foresight”, 48 ontology: cybernetic, 63; man/nature distinction, 168; status of ideas, 35 opacity, 103,149, 187,189, 191, 205nll, 247n9. See also transparency operational planning, 136-137 operations research (OR), 75, 112,131,136, 159, 246n5 Oppenheim, Paul, 23-25, 87,88, 99 orchestra: etymology of, 10; model of complexity, 198n34 orchestration: case for, 182; democratic, 193; form of governance, 8; of the future, 117, 150; limits to, 68,117; long-term predictions, 150,171; of scientific prediction, 7-10,13, 71; synchronicity, 69; Wiener’s description, 67, 20ІП28. See also cybernetic prediction; orchestration; guidance: through milieu orchestrator, the, 8 Oreskes, Naomi, 266 organization, as fundamental concept, 168 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 88 organizations: management of, 8,12,184 organization studies, 7 O’Riordan, Timothy, 173, 174,178 Panov, Dmitry, 131,135 Parin, Vasilii, 91-92 Pask, Gordon, 33, 129, 130/ pattern processing and recognition: cybernetic
notion, 12, 204n89; detection, 71; in fast-changing phenomena, 3; 283 prediction as, 28-29, 34-35,186; probabilis tic, 62 Pelevin, Viktor, 231-232nl6 performative methodology, 111 performative nature of prediction, 3,51, 73, 78,98,125, 151-52 performative strive, 19 perspektyvnyi plan, 52 Peter the Great, 38 Phenomenon of Man, The (1955), 166 Pickering, Andrew, 33, 36, 37,63 Pietruska, Jamie, 4, 45 “Plan and Foresight” (1927), 53 planetary boundaries, 180-181 planning by design, 117 Poe, Edgar Allan, 141 point predictions, 99 policy action, linear model of, 7,176 policy processes, 7-8 political economy: of cybernetics, 32; debates, 167; global, 14 Poovey, Mary, 20, 21, 28, 200nl2 Popper, Karl, 27,143 Porter, Theodore, 40,178,189 positivism: criticism of, 58, 177; French, 11, 21, 43, 48,181; Laplacian, 176; logical, 23; in Russia, 39,48; in USSR, 51; technocratic, 65 positivist prediction, 78,150, 174,177 Pospelov, Gemogen, 77,95 Power, Michael, 6,69, 70 Prague Spring (1968), 110, 137 precision: false, 172; as normative standard, 19, 21, positivist striving for, 55; search for, 71 predictability, 56, 66, 116,151,174,190-92, 203n61 prediction, term, 199nl predictive control, 60-61, 169 predictive expertise, research into, 2 predictive knowledge: actionable, 150; forms of, 192; internal diversity, 184, performative aspect, 103 predictive power: of brain, 34; and hypotheses, 25; of opinions, 200Ո12; of social science, 6 predictive processing, 35,72, 99 predvidenie, 6,48, 80,94 prévision, 48 prevision: Comtean, 21-22; economic, 50, 53; Kondrat’ev’ and, 49, 184; premodern, 4
prévoyance (prevision), 21 Priestland, David, 136, 164 Prisoner’s Dilemma, 122,123,140 probabilistic methods, 27, 35,43,62 probabilistic thinking, 21,22,62,80
284 INDEX probability theory, 15,199ոՅ Prognîstikon ("Book of Prognosis), 19 prognosis, 6,18-20, 23, 38, 79, 94 prognostication, 19, 38 prognoz, 48, 50 prognozirovanie, 6,47 prophecy: “supernatural”, 49; self-fulfilling, 19, 192 la prospective, 112, 116, 228n62 prospective reflexivity, 13,103-4, 112,115-20, 122, 186 psychographics, 135 “Purloined Letter, The” (1844), 141 purposeful behavior, 62, 63Հ 64, 71 purposive behavior, 26, 202n48 Putin, Vladimir, 105, 124,149,190 Pynnöniemi, Katri, 124 “quantifiable” growth, 43 quantification, 12 radar technology, 61,64, 106,132,136 Raiffa, Howard, 133 RAND Corporation: Delphi method, 88, 95; military studies, 77; and planning, 228n61; simulation games, 113; Social Science division, 133, 141 Rapoport, Anatol, 133, 137, 141 rational choice theory, 133, 140, 145 Raven, Peter, 166 Rayner, Steve, 173,174, 178 Reagan, Ronald, 138,163 real-time information, 61, 188 reflexive control theory: ethical justification, 123, 230nl; events as evidence, 146; practice of, 143-49, 172; problem of parity, 142; “science” of decision-making, 124; “scientific status”, 148; tactics, 124; Western reporting on, 125 reflexive deception, 13,122-24,132-33, 140-43, 155. See also deception reflexive games, 140-43, 148 reflexivity: forward, 172; in finance, 125; informal relations, and, 116; methodology, 115; “mixed blessing”, 127; multilevel information processing, 129-30; original meaning, 112; overflow, 140; performative and prospective, 13, 102-5,112,116-20, 122,186-87; strategic applications, 139; in Western philosophy, 125, 128 resilience, 174, 181 Reus,
Andrei, 105,225nl3 risk society, 69 risk studies, 6,183 Roosevelt, Franklin, 169 Rosenberg, Alex, 144 Rosenblueth, Arthur, 62,63,106 Rostow, Walt, 83 Rules of Sociological Method (1895), 21,49 Rumiantsev, Aleksei, 89, 92,22Խ125, 223nl65 Russia: cognitive operations, 146; ethnogra phy, 46; eugenic thought, 44; information warfare, 148; institutional foundations of forecasting, 46; literacy rates, 43,47; military hospitals, 44; peasants, 45; population statistics, 47; public health, 44, 189; scientific prediction, 48 Russian empire, 41-45 Russian nationalism, 157,190 Russian world idea, 119 Sandomirskaja, Irina, 131 Santangelo, Federico, 16-17 Schelling, Thomas, 133,140 Schmidgen, Henning, 68 science and technology studies (STS), 128, 181 scientific explanation(s): capacity to predict, 24; incomplete, 24; procedure of, 23; structure of, 25fi ultimate test, 39 scientific forecasting: conditions for, 40,46; criticism of, 30, 81,118; logics of prediction, 73; Soviet, 76-82, 87, 91, 96,100,159 scientific knowledge: approximate certainty, 21; formal, 105; Hempel and Oppenheim’s theory, 23, 26; inevitable uncertainty, 174; vs. lay knowledge, 22; orchestration of production, 184; prediction in, 20, 28/, 186 scientific management, 54, 169, 210n97. See also Taylorism scientific prediction: behavioral, 59,151, 235n60; as explanation, 23-4, 64; Humean gap in, 21; and hypothesis-making, 56; as inference, 31, 33, 174; late modern, 27-30; logistical meaning, 191; mandate, 183; means to maintain opacity, 102; positivist, 21-26,151; power to predict, 22; premod ern, 16-20; probabilistic,
27, 59, 70, 71; relational concept, 12; structure, 25/ See also conjecture; epistemology: of scientific pre diction; orchestration: of scientific predic tion; pattern processing and recognition: prediction as; performative nature of prediction Scientific Research Institute of Automatic Machinery (NIIAA), 131,135
INDEX Scientific Research Institute of Economies (NIEI), 76, 79, 99 scientific-technical progress (STP), 83 scientific-technical revolution theory (STR), 82-84,86, 89, 209֊10n81 s-curves, 42 Seefried, Elke, 3 self-images, 139 self-organization, 139, 161, 163, 168,173 self-organizing systems, 130/ 139 “self-reference”, term, 139,144 self-reflexivity, 64 self-regulation: absence of, 179; corrective, 69; cybernetic, 161; via feedback, 96; beyond formal structures, 120; governance at a distance, 9; informational, 33; reflexivity as, 232n24; system level, 59,152 semiotics, 110,135,143, 231-32nl6 servomechanisms, 12,15,58,63,72-73,132,187 servomechanism theory, 61, 64, 69 Shatalin, Stanislav, 97,100 Shchedrovitskii, Georgii Petrovich: activity/ simulation games, 113-17; first Soviet management guru, 107-11; legacy, 103-106, 134,120-21; reflexivity methodology, 118; work continued, 119. See also reflexivity; prospective reflexivity Shchedrovitskii, Petr, 118 Shlapentokh, Vladimir, 84,96 Skinner, B. E, 26, 34,124, 154 Slobodian, Quinn, 157, 174-76, 245nl06 Smil, Vaclav, 38,98-99, 204n3 Smolian, Georgii, 135, 231-32Ո16 Snyder, Joel, 127 social behavior, 25, 129,185 social engineering, 58,117, 228n62 social hygiene movement, 43,44 social mobilization model, 107 social research: domestic, 222nl48; prediction in, 48; Soviet, 73, 84; transition between events in, 49 social statistical forecasting, 65 social statistics, 43,65, 86,184 social values studies, 85,93, 96 Society for Scientific Forecasting (SSF), 91-92, 221Ո116 sociological prediction, 208n60 sociology, Soviet, 82-86
sociotechnics (sotsiotekhnika), 117 Sorokin, Pitirim, 47 Soros, George, 125,143-145,148 Soviet agriculture, 156 Soviet Association of Sociology (SAS), 82-83 285 Soviet censuses: 1926, 51; 1937 and 1939, 82 Soviet economy, forecasting, 74-82 Soviet planning: 1920s-1930, 53; 1950s, 76-77, 80; 1960s, 79; early, 46-52; Kosygin era, 78; processes, 57; types of plans, 53 Soviet planning practice, 52, 53,99, 100, 106 Soviet space program, 158, 241n28 stabilization, 168, 184 Stages ofEconomic Growth, The: A Non Communist Manifesto (1960), 83 Stalin, Joseph, ban on activity games, 113 State Commission for Electrification of Russia (GOELRO), 52, 77, 79 State Committee for Science and Technology (GKNT), 93, 161, 217Ո137 State Security Committee (KGB): and studies, 85, 95,135, 222nl41; investigations, 107, 109; policies, 204n7 static vs. dynamic laws, 50 statistical forecasting: input-output method, 13; cybernetic-like functions, 12; debates, 191; with goal-steering, 62; linear, 71; promise of, 38-40; in Russia, 41-47; status, 48; United States, 4,45. See also social statistical forecasting statistical prediction: types of, 29-30; cultures, 30,45, 46 steersman processes, 9, 59, 188 strategic deception. See deception: strategic Strategic Defense Initiative, 138 strategic thought, Soviet, 136,145-47, 237nl07 strategy, symbolic power, 145,147 Strumilin, Stanislav, 54, 217n56 surveillance, Cold War, 12,58 sustainable development, 175 symmetry, notion of, 25, 30 synchronization: brain as device, 68; of organizational action, 192; problem of, 8, 54, 244n87; of social action systems approach
and analysis, 104,109, 111, 151,159, 165, 170 systems engineering, 117 Taagepera, Rein, 191, 247n21 taboos, 173,176, 177 Tarde, Gabriel, 128-129 Tardov, Boris N. 91, 22Խ117 target-oriented governance, 154,172 target-seeking processes, 151 targets: illusion of control, 78; vs. limits, 173,176 Taylor, Frederic Winslow, 169 Taylorism: American, 54,169; Soviet version of, 78
286 INDEX technocracy, 39, 58, 117, 169 technoscience, 8, 82,157, 187 technoscientific forecasting, 88, 97 Teilhard de Chardin, Pierre, 155, 166,167, 180 teleological behavior, 106, 107, 114 teleological control. See control: teleological teleological planning approaches, 54,63, 78 Thermonuclear War, On, (1960), 88 thinking activity, 111-20 Thomas, Timothy, 146 time series: analyses, 60, 88; methods, 56, 74; use in prediction, 199n2; theory, 60 timetables, 19-20 Timofeev-Resovskii, Nikolai, 165 Titarenko, Larissa, 84 transparency: absence of, 102; desire for, 39-40, 101; in economics, 80, 120; history of idea, 59,69, 87-88, 123,173. See also glasnost’ Trump, Donald, 190 tselevoe planirovanie, 78. See also teleological planning approaches Tukhachevski, Mikhail, 74, 137 Turetskii, Shamai, 79 Ukraine: decision to invade, 192; DonetskLuhansk conflict (2014), 146, 190; invasion (2022), 124, 147, 187; reflexive control used in, 13, 122, 149,187. See also reflexive control theory; strategic deception uncertainty: in cybernetic prediction, 64,71; epistemology friendly to, 60; governing, 174, 179; instrument of action, 144; in prospec tive reflexivity, 120; subversive effect, 85 ungovernability: economic, 161; scientific, 156 United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), 83, 89, 162, 165,166 United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), 164 US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), 47,174 utopianism: in Bestuzhev-Lada’s work, 94, 98; modernist projects, 224nl; Soviet ideas of, 185; technocratic, 5,189; and transparency, 205nll. See also cybernetic
sensibility Vaino, Anton, 105,246Ո148 Velázquez, Diego, 126-27 Veimet, Aro, 95,212η 11 Verhulst, Pierre Francois, 42 Vernadskii, Vladimir, 155,159,162,165,172, 240Ո18 visibility, 11-12, 39-40, 56, 100, 102,176, 204n2 Vol’pe, Abram, 74 Voprosyfilosofii (Issues of Philosophy), 77,88, 140 Vygotsky, Lev, 110, 114 weather monitoring, 38,44, 45 Weick, Karl, 19,106,191 “Western” scientific tradition, 4,16,75,81, 123 what if reasoning, 30 “what is to come”, Russian words, 94 Wiener, Norbert: cybernetic prediction, 11,12, 59-65,68, 71; defining of cybernetics, 9,59; “events” and “messages”, 62; goal-steering, 54; information, 32; loops, 13,66; material ity, 67; teleology, 78 Wildawsky, Aaron, 120 will to power, 1,193 will to predict: beliefs behind, 46; legitimacy and ethical issues, 186, 189,191-92; fueled criticism, 97; generates models, 3; integrating force, 6; requires orchestration, 184; Soviet, 15 Window to the Future, A: The Contemporary Problems ofSocial Prognosis (1970), 94 World Dynamics (1978), 166 World Future Studies Federation, 91-92 world government, 166,174 Zadorin, Igor’, 98 Zan, Luca, 145 Zdravomyslova, Elena, 84 Zinov’ev, Aleksandr, 89,104, 108 Zuboff, Shoshana, 32, 35, 189 Zúbok, Vladislav, 97, 111, 156, 177, 202n47 Zvorykin, Anatolil, 83, 89,216n28 Bayerische Staatsbibliothek München |
| adam_txt |
Contents Acknowledgments List of Abbreviations Note on Translation and Transliteration Introduction ix xiii xv 1 1. What Is Scientific Prediction? 15 2. Visibility, Transparency, and Prediction 38 3. Cybernetic Prediction and Late Modern Governance 58 4. Forecasting and the Cybernetic Sensibility 72 5. Prediction and the Opaque: Prospective Reflexivity 102 6. Reflexive Control 122 7. Global Prediction: From Targeting to Orchestration 150 Conclusion 183 Notes Bibliography Index 195 249 277
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Index Page numbers followed by ƒ or n indicate figures or notes. Abbott, Kenneth, 8 accountability, 100 action-oriented learning, 113 action-oriented prediction processing, 35 actor-network theory, 10, 18 adaptation: “non-modern,” 37; reflexive, 129, 151; strategy of nature, 169 adaptive behavior: open-ended, 62; prognosis as component of, 51; role of prediction, 70; supported by information processing, 106 Afanas’ev, Georgii, 131 Aganbegian, Abel, 80, 97 Algebra of Conflict, The (1968), 135,140 algorithms: of global development, 14; predictions, 12, 27, 188; profiling, 70 All-Union Institute for Systems Research (VNIISI), 93, 97, 111, 135 Anchishkin, Aleksandr, 80, 97 Andersson, Jenny, 3 Andromeda Nebula (1957), 9,93 antecedent conditions, 24-26, 31 Anthropocene, 14, 155-56, 163-64 antiaircraft systems, 60,64,132,169 Arab-Ogly, Edvard, 88-89, 220n98 Arendt, Hannah, 59, 102 Aronova, Elena, 83 Arrow, Kenneth, 176 artificial intelligence (AI): influence of cybernetics, 32; research, 67,125; Wiener’s impact in field, 59 Ashby, W. Ross, 13, 33, 129 astrology, 20, 38,45,99 astronomical vs, meteorological systems, 66 astronomy, 22, 66, 133 authoritarianism: cybernetic, 12, 59; environmental, 13, 189; hidden liberal, 244n90; neoliberal, 233n32; positivist, 26; “scientific”, 58; Soviet, 12; technocratic, 3 “autohypnosis” by numbers, 53, 54, 96, 175 automata theory, 15 Automated System of Analysis of Social Information (ASAI), 86 automation: age of, 71; Arendt’s critique, 59; technologies, 10 autopoiesis, 32-33, 110, 114 Bacon, Francis, 21 Bateson, Gregory: model oflearning, 129;
model of self, 233n35 Bauman, Zygmunt, 176-77 Bazarov, Vladimir, 52, 57 Beer, Stafford, 139, 176, 188 behaviorism, 26; cybernetic, 129, 131, 151,231; methods of time control, 55; neurophysi ological, 34-35; Skinnerian, 26, 32,154, 231Ո12 Bekhterev, Vladimir, 46, 51 Beloiarsk power plant, 115 Bennett, Tony, 128,179, 180, 206-7n43 Berg, Axsel, 137 Bernshtein, Nikolai, 55, 109 Bestuzhev-Lada, Igor’, 86-96, 98,219n86, 221Ո117 Biermann, Frank, 181 Bigelow, Julian, 31,62, 106 Big Science, 105 biogeocenose, 160 biological determinism, 59 Biosphere, The (1926) biosphere: governing the, 156,163; man as manager of, 169; modeling, 161,164; and noosphere, 165-67; Moiseev’s use of idea, 162,172-73; origin, 155; history of term, 165; theory, 173-76, 178-81, 210n99; Vernadiskii’s theory, 159 Birshtein, Maria, 113 blat, 102 Bogdanov, Aleksandr, 167,242n45 Boolean algebra, 141,145,148 bottom-up processing, 33,106 Bound, John, 29 brain, the: acting machine model, 33; activity, 33; digital model of, 31; predictive, 33-35 brain drain, 137,164 Breev, Boris, 80 277
278 INDEX Brezhnev, Leonid, 78, НО, 136,137 Bryant, Christopher, 143 Budyko, Mikhail, 93, 131, 165, 166 Buniakovskii, Viktor, 43 Canguilhem, Georges, 59,154 Carter, Chris, 146, 147 causalities, 50,66 causal loop, 19,192 censorship, 85 Central Institute of Mathematical Economics at the All-Union Academy of Sciences (TsEMI), 77, 100, 135, 137 Central Statistical Agency, 47, 218n58 Centre for Intellectual Resources and Cooperation in Societal Sciences (TsIRKON), 98,223Ո160 Chayanov, Aleksandr, 46 Chernobyl, 164 chronology, problem of, 24, 54 Cicero, 16-17 circular causality, 31,62, 203n68 Clark, Andy, 34-35 Clegg, Stewart, 146,147 climate change crisis, 13, 94, 150 climate engineering, 93 “closed worlds”, 12 coevolution: conditions for, 169; definitions, 166; global, 155,167; organizational forms, 168, 181 cognition: abstract models, 146; coordinating with action, 35; cybernetic approaches, 33; form of power, 147; higher levels, 34; part of social interaction, 113; self-reflexive model, 125, 129; Skinner’s perspective, 26; special form of power, 190 cognitive valuation theory, 138 Cold War: competition, 60, 75, 183; moder nity, 146,150; politics, 99, 125; strategy, 12, 13, 139, 140-41,148; totalitarianism, 12; uses of scientific prediction, 5. See also Neumann, John von: game theory of strategy collapse of Soviet system, 190-191 collective preferences, 13 Collier, Stephen, 52, 78,117 commonsense knowledge, 24,189 commonsense notion of prediction, 192, 199n4 Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU),5,12, 110, 156, 164, 191 complexity, levels, 35-36, 50, 153,168, 172, 177,
188 Computer Centre, Soviet Academy of Sciences, 159, 162,166,181 computer modeling: “alternative social sciences”, 97; global, 156, 166; in policy sciences, 33; as social practice, 167,177-79 Comte, Auguste: influence in Russia, 39,43, 49-50, 94; positivist tradition of, 28,39,48, 153, 170,189; on science and prediction, 21-22,150-51 Conflicting Structures (1967), 135 conjectural knowledge(s), 18-21,175 conjectural science (sciencia coniecturalis), 18 conjectural semiology, 19 conjecture: astrological, 52; Greek tradition of conjecture, 16-17; prediction as, 15,16-20; process of, 71; status of, 21 Conjuncture Institute, Moscow, 47,48, 56 consciousness, 140 control: behavioral, 12, 55,109,187; guidance, as, 180; problem of, 15, 59; semiotic strategy of, 110; revolution, 163; societal, 3, 60, 179; Soviet definition, 171; teleological, 169,170, 175. See also guided development; reflexive control theory: practical of; cybernetic control control science, 60 corruption, 97, 103 Course de philosophie positive (1830-1842), 21-22 Covid-19, 188 Craik, Kenneth, 68 Crimea: annexation of, 43,87,146; War (1853-1856), 13 critical thresholds, 173 Crutzen, Paul, 155-56, 163, 164, 173 cultivation, 176-177 cultural sector, 89 culture of forecasting, 12 cultures of prediction, 4, 45, 71,206n37 cumulative prognosis, 28. See also prognosis curve fitting, 29 cybernation, 187 cybernetic control, 32,59,60, 63, 152,171-73. See also control: teleological cybernetic engineering systems, 73, 169 cybernetic prediction: critics, 69-71; influence, 11; materially mediated, 67; misuse for domination, 63;
orchestration, 68, 71,173; use for social governance, 64; Wienerian, 59-62. See also governance cybernetics: biological, 167; interest in goal-oriented processes, 59; history of, 31, 57-59; institutionalization, 139; “non-modern
INDEX science”, 36; posthuman effect, 67; science of governance, 72-73,80; second-order, 9,32, 114,139,231Ո15; Soviet, 72,137, 212nll Cybernetics: Or Control and Communication in the Animal and the Machine (1948), 32,68 cybernetic sensibility, 12,15,27-30, 72, 186 cybernetic steering, 9,171 data collection, 7,79,178,185 Dayé, Christian, 3 deception: activities of, 142,146-47; “anomic behavior”, 124; in combat situations, 132; legitimatizing, 131; logical machine of, 133; making outcomes predictable, 123; strategic, 36, 124,187 decision science, 113,140, 145 decision trees, 19 deduction: logical, 25/ 123; problem of, 28, 50 Delphi method, 88,95,220n94, 222Ո140 demographic research, 43, 82, 218n58 Denyer, Nicholas, 18 Deutsch, Karl, 107, 187 digital computer(s), 31, 33, 132 digitization of labor, 32 disarmament talks, Reykjavik, 125, 139 divination, 16-18,200n8 Dobrov, Genadii, 77,87, 216n27 Douglas, Heather, 26-7 Druzhinin, Valentin V., 136 Durkheim, Émile, 22, 49, 124 dynamic systems, 59,152, 202n48 Earth system science(s), 12,163,175, 181. See also governmentality: Earth system economic forecasting: critical approach, 185; demand for, 48; emergence, 184 economic growth: social indicators, 160; Soviet, 78,159; Soviet theory of, 47; “problem”, 171; statistical modeling, 50 economic indicators, 47 economic planning: models influencing, 15, 77, 184; reforms, 156; Soviet, 40, 54, 74, 85 economics: capitalist, 2; development of, 76; industrial, 145; scientific approaches to, 113; ungovernability of, 161 economy: evolution of, 208n60; models of, 51, 167; “not a mosaic”, 51;
sectors, 47 economy of favors, 102, 160, 186 Efimov, Anatolit, 76,79 Efremov, Ivan, 91, 220-2ІПІ11 Ehrenberg, Andrew, 29 Ellman, Michael, 190 emergent behavior, 63,67 279 empathy, 134 engineering: cybernetic systems in, 73, 202n48; teleological prediction applied, 106. See also systems engineering Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, An, (1748) environment, the: application of cybernetic prediction, 65; hybrid system, 160; interactions with, 129; term, 159. See also environmental governance; global environmental change environmental governance, 155, 162, 167, 171, 177,181 environmental systems. See Earth system science(s) epistemology: cybernetic, 69, 73; empirical, 26; of forecasting, 85; of governance, 60, 160,173-180; heuristic, 99; medical, 41; modern scientific, 36; neoliberal, 174; of order, 55; postpositivist, 157; scientific, 3, 11, 36,68; of scientific prediction, 19, 50, 51, 99, 185; social constructivist, 128; of social prediction, 93; of transparency, 59 equilibrium: of economy, 48, 207n55; of Earth, 170 Ereshko, Feliks, 135 ergonomics, 78 Erlich, Paul, 166 Ershov, Emil’, 77, 80 ethics: collectives guided by, 68; vanish in reflexive control model, 143,177 ethnic profiling, 188 ethnogenesis, 45, 206n31 Euler, Leonhard, 42 evolution: biosphere, 173, 244n87; brain, 34; Darwinian theory, 41,45; development paths, 207n52; economy, 208n60; epistemol ogy of, 69; guided, 244n91; social/human, 49, 83,128; of Soviet system, 191; statistical measurement of, 186 expert surveys, 90, 95 explanans, 23-25 extrapolatory prediction, 30, 61, 94 failure of prediction, 189-93
falsifiability, 27, 81,99, 143 Fedorov, Evgenii, 131, 163,165, 166, 170, 243n64 feedback loops, 12,13, 31, 33, 59-62,152,187 Feldman, Grigoril, 47, 83 Fidora, Alexander, 18-20 finance, reflexivity in, 143 Five-Year Plan, first, 51-53
280 INDEX Flanagan, Owen, 127 Flechtheim, Ossip, 87, 219n88 Forecast (1901), 87, 94 forecasting: Soviet scientific, 42, 78, 88, 96, 99-100, 103, 105,118; Soviet social, 82-93, 96, 98. See also statistical forecasting foretelling, 19, 71 formal knowledge, 105 Forrester, Jay, 166, 228n61 forward-prediction model, 35-36 Foucault, Michel, 126-27, 153-54,197n24 foundations, 41; institutional landscape, 98; limits, 39; macroeconomic, 47; in postrevo lutionary Russia, 184. See also Soviet economy, forecasting Foundations of the Mathematical Theory of Probabilities (1846), 43 French government, 76 Fundamentals ofEcology (1953), 165 future, the: problem of, 23; intrinsic association with prediction, 200nl0 future-making, 3 Future ofHumanity and the Earth, The (1928), 87 future studies, 3, 86,87, 91, 196nl6 future-telling, 2 futurology, 87, 219n88 Gaia modeling system, 166,181 Gaia theory, 166,170 Galanskov, Iurii, 111 Galison, Peter, 60, 70 Gamblers, The (1842), 123 games. See Shchedrovitskii, G.P., activity/ simulation games and Stalin, Joseph: ban on activity games Games and Decisions (1957), 133 game theory, 4,63, 133-34, 140,142 Game Theory and Economic Behavior (1944), 134 “garbage can” model, 8 “gardening state”, 176-77 Gastev, Aleksei, 55, 57 general effects, 21 general laws: how formulated, 22-24,25/ 44, 50,64; for populations and societies, 41,64. See also antecedent conditions General Staff (Genshtab), 136 Geneva school neoliberals, 11, 175 geological force, humanity as, 151,155, 162-63, 166, 168 Geroulanos, Stefano, 40, 59, 87, 173,205nll Gerovitch, Slava, 72,212nll
Giddens, Anthony, 128n232 Ginzburg, Aleksander, 111 glasnost’, 40-41, 80-81, 93,164,191,204n7 Glazyev, Sergei, 98, 223nl58 global climate crisis, 2,166, 183 global environmental change: due to human activities, 168; imagination of, 159; impact of nuclear war, 138; limits of, 172,176 global governance, 36,154-55,164,167-69, 172-174, 180; as guidance, 171,178,179,181, 184,186; nongovernability, 155, 174 globalists, neoliberal, 67,157,175-176,245nl06 global modeling, 164,166, 178-179 Glushkov, Viktor, 77,159,171, 176,188 goal-seeking behavior, 13,73, 106,112,225nl9 goal-setting, 12-13,106-7,115 Gorbachev, Mikhail: disarmament talks, 125, reforms, 97, 104, 139,164, 177; new approaches to governance, 156, 181 Gosplan, 52, 57, 76,78-81, 90,160, 171 governance: of complexity, 164,181,198nl34; diverging approaches, 55; embodied, social, 117; indirect, 8; habit vs. reflexivity in, 128; limited/ negative, 154-55; network, 107,197; by numbers, 41-43; purposive control, 15, 171, 181; “science”, 80; Soviet scientific, 105, 131; technocratic, 117; without reliable data, 100. See also environmental governance; global governance; milieu, governance through; target-oriented governance governmentality: Cold War, 70,189; Earth system, 151,170-71; globally-integrated, 181; liberal, 129, 244; neoliberal, 153; of noosphere, 173; scholarship, 197n24; Soviet, 81, 154, 175, 179; Soviet Earth system, 154, 180; system-cybernetic, 9,173; types of, 78 Gramelsberger, Gabriele, 30 Gregory, Paul, 57, 99,211Ո103 Grimanelli, Pericles, 48,208n60 Grushin, Boris, 84, 92, 93,108 guidance: negative, 173,177,
188; through milieu, 151, 155, 179,184,186 guided development, 173,244n91 Gumilev, Lev, 165,246nl28 Gvishiani, Dzhermen, 78,97, 168 habit: cycle of corrections, 129; vs. reflexivity, 128 Hayek, Friedrich von, 155, 160-61, 167, 173, 174,176 Hayles, Katherine, 67 Heidegger, Martin, 59 Helmer, Olaf, 88
INDEX Hempel, Carl, 23-25,87, 88, 99 heuristics: character of forecasts, 99; climate science, 180; information processing, 106 Heymann, Matthias, 30 “high modernist state”, 105 Hippocrates, 19 homeostasis, 170 human body, 19 Human Condition, The (1958), 59 humans, as prediction machines, 68 Hume, David, 21 Humean gap, 21,23,34 hypotheses: incomplete explanations, 25; “five-year”, 53; flawed, 144; forecasts as, 54; predictive, 209n69 If the World Disarms (1961), 93 induction, Hume’s problem of, 21 informality: in decision-making, 96; importance of, 106; legitimizing, 13, 107; mobilizing, 112; orchestrating, 119; social, 103,186; sources of corruption, 103 information: conceptual split re matter, 67; quantum theory, 66; Weiner’s view, 32,62,66 informational warfare, 122,146-47 information theory, 66,67, 95,104 information transmission, “a predictive cascade”, 34-35 input-output model, 7,13, 34, 56, 80, 105, 119, 185 Institute for the International Labor Movement (IMRD), 89,110 Institute of Concrete Social Research (IKSI/ ISI), 83-86, 89-93,96, 137,218n58, 219n84 Institute of Future, 88 Institute of Psychoneurology, 46 institutes of agreement, 175, 181 institutional design, 40, 104,181,224nl2 International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (HASA), 57,97, 138,156, 174 International Sociology Association (ISA), 83, 89,91 interpolative prediction, 29 Introduction to Analysis of the Infinite (1748), 42 Isidore of Seville, 18 Ivanov, Viacheslav, 109,131 Joel, Isaac, 140 Johnson, Ann, 3 Jungk, Robert, 81, 88, 91, 22ІПІ24 Kahn, Herman, 88 Kant, Immanuel, 128 281 Kantorovich,
Leonid, 75, 80, 208n57 Kerzhentsev, Platon, 55, 57 KGB (State Security Committee), 85, 95, 109, 135-36, 204n7, 222Ո141,225n21 Khristenko, Viktor, 105, 225nl3 Khrushchev, Nikita, 75, 78, 83, 109, 110, 158 Kline, Ronald, 31 Knight, Frank. H., 30-31, 33 knowledge of unknowns (premodern), 16, 17 knowledge transfer, 12 known and unknown events, 49 Kondrat’ev, Nikolai: death, 56; and early Soviet planning, 46-52; pioneer of forecasting, 11; prevision idea, 53, 79,184; value of indicative forecasts, 161; influence of Grimanelli, 208n62 Koopmans, Tjalling, 161 Kornberger, Martin, 146,147 Kosygin, Aleksei, 77, 78, 97,159 Kovalevskii, Mikhail, 46,48 Kovda, Viktor, 165 Krementsov, Nikolai, 44 Kurakin, Boris, 45 Landa, Lev, 110 Landau, Lev language: cybernetic, 63,109; of formal logic, 140; mathematical, 178; statistical, 23 Lankina, Tornila, 158,226n32 Laplace, Pierre-Simon: influence in Russia, 43, 55; Laplacian “Dream”, 209n67; model of economy and society, 167; notion of perfect knowledge, 176; simplistic approach, 55; social physics, 49 Latour, Bruno, 148 Lavrent’ev, Mikhail, 158, 159,241n30 League of Time, the, 55 Ledeneva, Alena, 103, 186 Lefebvre, Viktorina, 137,138 Lefebvre, Vladimir, 13,110, 123,125,131-48, 184 Leontief, Wassily, 56, 77,207n52 Lepskii, Vladimir, 131, 23Խ11, 23Խ15, 235n60 limits: thinking from, 166,177; setting, 173; shift from targets, 176; use of prohibitions with, 172; Limits to Growth, The (1972), 94, 162,166 linear causality, 31,66. See also causalities linear model of prediction —» action, 30 living standards forecasts, 85 logical empiricism, 21, 26,
64,151, 153,172,191 logics of prediction: cybernetic, 73; positivist, 73
282 INDEX Long Wave Cycle, The (1928), 56 Lovelock, James, 152, 160, 166, 170 Luce, Duncan, 133 Luria, Alexander, 51 Lyapunov, Aleksandr, 159 machine translation, 61, 62, 109 macroeconomics: forecasting, 47; models, 161; problems, 76; statistics, 56 Macy conferences on cybernetics, 61,129 Mahony, Martin, 30 Maksimenko, Vitalii, 95 Mamardashvili, Merab,89, 108 management: cybernetization of, 73, 78; Moiseev’s use of term, 169; professionaliza tion in Russia, 13; reflexive control, 143; as resource orchestration, 8; Soviet, 54, 57, 78, 84, 104, 105,114, 171; uses of statistical prediction, 6; time in, 55; type of gover nance, 181. See also scientific management; Shchedrovitskii, G. P.; Taylorism Man and Noosphere (1990), 162 Manichean sciences, 60 manipulation, 36,123, 124, 144,147,149, 232nl6 mantie knowledge: Chinese version, 17; declining status, 29; shift to prognosis, 18, 174; transition from, 4 mantie practice: ancient, 19; premodern notions, 6 mantie science: etymology, 16; typologies, 18,37 mantike, 16-17 Marx, Karl: Capital, 108, 109; insufficient model of society, 167; producer goods vs. consumer goods, 47 Marxism-Leninism, 109, 134 “Mastery of Time as the Key Task in the Organization of Work, The” (1924) materiality question, 67 mathematical modeling: of biosphere, 166; Moiseev’s competence in, 162, 178; of reflexive processes, 134; for Soviet economy, 80 mathematics: methods, 3, 54; role of, 42 Matlock, Jack, 138, 139 McCulloch, Warren, 31,133 McLuhan, Marshall, 187 Meadows, Dennis, 160,166, 21ІПІ06 Meadows, Donella, 160 medical prognosis, 19 medicine, 19-20
Meninas o La Familia de Felipe IV, Las (1656), 126/-27, 143 Merton, Robert, 83,123,192 Middle Ages, European, 18 milieu(s): concept, 153; Foucault’s use of, 154; milieu, governance through, 13, 151, 165, 178-180, 184,186. See also guidance: through milieu militarism, culture of, 136 military decision-making, 132 military-industrial complex: USA, 88,145; USSR, 93, 109, 158-59, 216n28 military research, 77 military strategy, 110,125,135,144 military technology, 12,77 Mirowski, Philip, 49, 209n67 modernity, reflexive, 128. See also Cold War: modernity modernization: Eurocentric narrative of, 4; Soviet, 181,192; theory, 83; trap, 103 “modern man”, the, 41,44 Moiseev, Nikita: biosphere and noosphere, 165-67; on complexity, uncertainties, 188, 209n75; contribution, 15,180-82; family background, 157-58; global concerns, 11, 155-56,168-71,178-79; governance as guidance approach, 54, 174-78; intellectual biography, 159-64; orchestration in, 173; prescriptive vs prohibitive approaches, 172 Morgenstein, Oskar, 134 Moscow Methodological Circle, 12, 98,104, 108-9, 111, 134 Murav’ev, Valerian, 55, 57 mutual assured destruction (MAD), 122 natural givens, 180 nauchnaia organizatsiia truda (NOT), 54, 73, 86 negotiation models/strategies, 125, 139 neoliberalism, 174 Nerves of Government, The (1963), 107 Neumann, John von: influence on Lefebvre, 134; game theory of strategy, 63 neural networks, 31, 33, 37, 59,106,107 neural systems modes, 133 neurophysiology, 32, 34,50, 69 neuropsychology, Soviet, 51 neuroscience, 35 New Cold War, 146 New Economic Policy (NEP), 113 Nietzsche, Friedrich, 1
nooscope, 165 noosphere: de Chardin vs. Vernadiskii, 155; governmentality of, 173; Moiseev’s work on, 162-64,166,172,179-81; Russian legacy,
INDEX 180,240nl7,246nl28; Vernadiskii’s vision of, 166 Northcott, Robert, 26,27, 99 now-casting, 29 nuclear disarmament, 163,177,181. See also disarmament talks nuclear energy, 115 nuclear war, 88,93,138, 181, 191 nuclear winter study, 156,163,170, 181 numbers: avalanche, 174; large sets of, 30; reliability, 28; transparency, 39,101; visibility, 56. See also governance: by numbers; “autohypnosis” by numbers; statistical forecasting numerical representation, 29,167 observation, continuous, 10, 35, 72, 152 Odum, Eugene, 165 OGAS project, 171 Oldfield, Jonathan, 159 “On the Problem of Foresight”, 48 ontology: cybernetic, 63; man/nature distinction, 168; status of ideas, 35 opacity, 103,149, 187,189, 191, 205nll, 247n9. See also transparency operational planning, 136-137 operations research (OR), 75, 112,131,136, 159, 246n5 Oppenheim, Paul, 23-25, 87,88, 99 orchestra: etymology of, 10; model of complexity, 198n34 orchestration: case for, 182; democratic, 193; form of governance, 8; of the future, 117, 150; limits to, 68,117; long-term predictions, 150,171; of scientific prediction, 7-10,13, 71; synchronicity, 69; Wiener’s description, 67, 20ІП28. See also cybernetic prediction; orchestration; guidance: through milieu orchestrator, the, 8 Oreskes, Naomi, 266 organization, as fundamental concept, 168 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 88 organizations: management of, 8,12,184 organization studies, 7 O’Riordan, Timothy, 173, 174,178 Panov, Dmitry, 131,135 Parin, Vasilii, 91-92 Pask, Gordon, 33, 129, 130/ pattern processing and recognition: cybernetic
notion, 12, 204n89; detection, 71; in fast-changing phenomena, 3; 283 prediction as, 28-29, 34-35,186; probabilis tic, 62 Pelevin, Viktor, 231-232nl6 performative methodology, 111 performative nature of prediction, 3,51, 73, 78,98,125, 151-52 performative strive, 19 perspektyvnyi plan, 52 Peter the Great, 38 Phenomenon of Man, The (1955), 166 Pickering, Andrew, 33, 36, 37,63 Pietruska, Jamie, 4, 45 “Plan and Foresight” (1927), 53 planetary boundaries, 180-181 planning by design, 117 Poe, Edgar Allan, 141 point predictions, 99 policy action, linear model of, 7,176 policy processes, 7-8 political economy: of cybernetics, 32; debates, 167; global, 14 Poovey, Mary, 20, 21, 28, 200nl2 Popper, Karl, 27,143 Porter, Theodore, 40,178,189 positivism: criticism of, 58, 177; French, 11, 21, 43, 48,181; Laplacian, 176; logical, 23; in Russia, 39,48; in USSR, 51; technocratic, 65 positivist prediction, 78,150, 174,177 Pospelov, Gemogen, 77,95 Power, Michael, 6,69, 70 Prague Spring (1968), 110, 137 precision: false, 172; as normative standard, 19, 21, positivist striving for, 55; search for, 71 predictability, 56, 66, 116,151,174,190-92, 203n61 prediction, term, 199nl predictive control, 60-61, 169 predictive expertise, research into, 2 predictive knowledge: actionable, 150; forms of, 192; internal diversity, 184, performative aspect, 103 predictive power: of brain, 34; and hypotheses, 25; of opinions, 200Ո12; of social science, 6 predictive processing, 35,72, 99 predvidenie, 6,48, 80,94 prévision, 48 prevision: Comtean, 21-22; economic, 50, 53; Kondrat’ev’ and, 49, 184; premodern, 4
prévoyance (prevision), 21 Priestland, David, 136, 164 Prisoner’s Dilemma, 122,123,140 probabilistic methods, 27, 35,43,62 probabilistic thinking, 21,22,62,80
284 INDEX probability theory, 15,199ոՅ Prognîstikon ("Book of Prognosis), 19 prognosis, 6,18-20, 23, 38, 79, 94 prognostication, 19, 38 prognoz, 48, 50 prognozirovanie, 6,47 prophecy: “supernatural”, 49; self-fulfilling, 19, 192 la prospective, 112, 116, 228n62 prospective reflexivity, 13,103-4, 112,115-20, 122, 186 psychographics, 135 “Purloined Letter, The” (1844), 141 purposeful behavior, 62, 63Հ 64, 71 purposive behavior, 26, 202n48 Putin, Vladimir, 105, 124,149,190 Pynnöniemi, Katri, 124 “quantifiable” growth, 43 quantification, 12 radar technology, 61,64, 106,132,136 Raiffa, Howard, 133 RAND Corporation: Delphi method, 88, 95; military studies, 77; and planning, 228n61; simulation games, 113; Social Science division, 133, 141 Rapoport, Anatol, 133, 137, 141 rational choice theory, 133, 140, 145 Raven, Peter, 166 Rayner, Steve, 173,174, 178 Reagan, Ronald, 138,163 real-time information, 61, 188 reflexive control theory: ethical justification, 123, 230nl; events as evidence, 146; practice of, 143-49, 172; problem of parity, 142; “science” of decision-making, 124; “scientific status”, 148; tactics, 124; Western reporting on, 125 reflexive deception, 13,122-24,132-33, 140-43, 155. See also deception reflexive games, 140-43, 148 reflexivity: forward, 172; in finance, 125; informal relations, and, 116; methodology, 115; “mixed blessing”, 127; multilevel information processing, 129-30; original meaning, 112; overflow, 140; performative and prospective, 13, 102-5,112,116-20, 122,186-87; strategic applications, 139; in Western philosophy, 125, 128 resilience, 174, 181 Reus,
Andrei, 105,225nl3 risk society, 69 risk studies, 6,183 Roosevelt, Franklin, 169 Rosenberg, Alex, 144 Rosenblueth, Arthur, 62,63,106 Rostow, Walt, 83 Rules of Sociological Method (1895), 21,49 Rumiantsev, Aleksei, 89, 92,22Խ125, 223nl65 Russia: cognitive operations, 146; ethnogra phy, 46; eugenic thought, 44; information warfare, 148; institutional foundations of forecasting, 46; literacy rates, 43,47; military hospitals, 44; peasants, 45; population statistics, 47; public health, 44, 189; scientific prediction, 48 Russian empire, 41-45 Russian nationalism, 157,190 Russian world idea, 119 Sandomirskaja, Irina, 131 Santangelo, Federico, 16-17 Schelling, Thomas, 133,140 Schmidgen, Henning, 68 science and technology studies (STS), 128, 181 scientific explanation(s): capacity to predict, 24; incomplete, 24; procedure of, 23; structure of, 25fi ultimate test, 39 scientific forecasting: conditions for, 40,46; criticism of, 30, 81,118; logics of prediction, 73; Soviet, 76-82, 87, 91, 96,100,159 scientific knowledge: approximate certainty, 21; formal, 105; Hempel and Oppenheim’s theory, 23, 26; inevitable uncertainty, 174; vs. lay knowledge, 22; orchestration of production, 184; prediction in, 20, 28/, 186 scientific management, 54, 169, 210n97. See also Taylorism scientific prediction: behavioral, 59,151, 235n60; as explanation, 23-4, 64; Humean gap in, 21; and hypothesis-making, 56; as inference, 31, 33, 174; late modern, 27-30; logistical meaning, 191; mandate, 183; means to maintain opacity, 102; positivist, 21-26,151; power to predict, 22; premod ern, 16-20; probabilistic,
27, 59, 70, 71; relational concept, 12; structure, 25/ See also conjecture; epistemology: of scientific pre diction; orchestration: of scientific predic tion; pattern processing and recognition: prediction as; performative nature of prediction Scientific Research Institute of Automatic Machinery (NIIAA), 131,135
INDEX Scientific Research Institute of Economies (NIEI), 76, 79, 99 scientific-technical progress (STP), 83 scientific-technical revolution theory (STR), 82-84,86, 89, 209֊10n81 s-curves, 42 Seefried, Elke, 3 self-images, 139 self-organization, 139, 161, 163, 168,173 self-organizing systems, 130/ 139 “self-reference”, term, 139,144 self-reflexivity, 64 self-regulation: absence of, 179; corrective, 69; cybernetic, 161; via feedback, 96; beyond formal structures, 120; governance at a distance, 9; informational, 33; reflexivity as, 232n24; system level, 59,152 semiotics, 110,135,143, 231-32nl6 servomechanisms, 12,15,58,63,72-73,132,187 servomechanism theory, 61, 64, 69 Shatalin, Stanislav, 97,100 Shchedrovitskii, Georgii Petrovich: activity/ simulation games, 113-17; first Soviet management guru, 107-11; legacy, 103-106, 134,120-21; reflexivity methodology, 118; work continued, 119. See also reflexivity; prospective reflexivity Shchedrovitskii, Petr, 118 Shlapentokh, Vladimir, 84,96 Skinner, B. E, 26, 34,124, 154 Slobodian, Quinn, 157, 174-76, 245nl06 Smil, Vaclav, 38,98-99, 204n3 Smolian, Georgii, 135, 231-32Ո16 Snyder, Joel, 127 social behavior, 25, 129,185 social engineering, 58,117, 228n62 social hygiene movement, 43,44 social mobilization model, 107 social research: domestic, 222nl48; prediction in, 48; Soviet, 73, 84; transition between events in, 49 social statistical forecasting, 65 social statistics, 43,65, 86,184 social values studies, 85,93, 96 Society for Scientific Forecasting (SSF), 91-92, 221Ո116 sociological prediction, 208n60 sociology, Soviet, 82-86
sociotechnics (sotsiotekhnika), 117 Sorokin, Pitirim, 47 Soros, George, 125,143-145,148 Soviet agriculture, 156 Soviet Association of Sociology (SAS), 82-83 285 Soviet censuses: 1926, 51; 1937 and 1939, 82 Soviet economy, forecasting, 74-82 Soviet planning: 1920s-1930, 53; 1950s, 76-77, 80; 1960s, 79; early, 46-52; Kosygin era, 78; processes, 57; types of plans, 53 Soviet planning practice, 52, 53,99, 100, 106 Soviet space program, 158, 241n28 stabilization, 168, 184 Stages ofEconomic Growth, The: A Non Communist Manifesto (1960), 83 Stalin, Joseph, ban on activity games, 113 State Commission for Electrification of Russia (GOELRO), 52, 77, 79 State Committee for Science and Technology (GKNT), 93, 161, 217Ո137 State Security Committee (KGB): and studies, 85, 95,135, 222nl41; investigations, 107, 109; policies, 204n7 static vs. dynamic laws, 50 statistical forecasting: input-output method, 13; cybernetic-like functions, 12; debates, 191; with goal-steering, 62; linear, 71; promise of, 38-40; in Russia, 41-47; status, 48; United States, 4,45. See also social statistical forecasting statistical prediction: types of, 29-30; cultures, 30,45, 46 steersman processes, 9, 59, 188 strategic deception. See deception: strategic Strategic Defense Initiative, 138 strategic thought, Soviet, 136,145-47, 237nl07 strategy, symbolic power, 145,147 Strumilin, Stanislav, 54, 217n56 surveillance, Cold War, 12,58 sustainable development, 175 symmetry, notion of, 25, 30 synchronization: brain as device, 68; of organizational action, 192; problem of, 8, 54, 244n87; of social action systems approach
and analysis, 104,109, 111, 151,159, 165, 170 systems engineering, 117 Taagepera, Rein, 191, 247n21 taboos, 173,176, 177 Tarde, Gabriel, 128-129 Tardov, Boris N. 91, 22Խ117 target-oriented governance, 154,172 target-seeking processes, 151 targets: illusion of control, 78; vs. limits, 173,176 Taylor, Frederic Winslow, 169 Taylorism: American, 54,169; Soviet version of, 78
286 INDEX technocracy, 39, 58, 117, 169 technoscience, 8, 82,157, 187 technoscientific forecasting, 88, 97 Teilhard de Chardin, Pierre, 155, 166,167, 180 teleological behavior, 106, 107, 114 teleological control. See control: teleological teleological planning approaches, 54,63, 78 Thermonuclear War, On, (1960), 88 thinking activity, 111-20 Thomas, Timothy, 146 time series: analyses, 60, 88; methods, 56, 74; use in prediction, 199n2; theory, 60 timetables, 19-20 Timofeev-Resovskii, Nikolai, 165 Titarenko, Larissa, 84 transparency: absence of, 102; desire for, 39-40, 101; in economics, 80, 120; history of idea, 59,69, 87-88, 123,173. See also glasnost’ Trump, Donald, 190 tselevoe planirovanie, 78. See also teleological planning approaches Tukhachevski, Mikhail, 74, 137 Turetskii, Shamai, 79 Ukraine: decision to invade, 192; DonetskLuhansk conflict (2014), 146, 190; invasion (2022), 124, 147, 187; reflexive control used in, 13, 122, 149,187. See also reflexive control theory; strategic deception uncertainty: in cybernetic prediction, 64,71; epistemology friendly to, 60; governing, 174, 179; instrument of action, 144; in prospec tive reflexivity, 120; subversive effect, 85 ungovernability: economic, 161; scientific, 156 United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), 83, 89, 162, 165,166 United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), 164 US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), 47,174 utopianism: in Bestuzhev-Lada’s work, 94, 98; modernist projects, 224nl; Soviet ideas of, 185; technocratic, 5,189; and transparency, 205nll. See also cybernetic
sensibility Vaino, Anton, 105,246Ո148 Velázquez, Diego, 126-27 Veimet, Aro, 95,212η 11 Verhulst, Pierre Francois, 42 Vernadskii, Vladimir, 155,159,162,165,172, 240Ո18 visibility, 11-12, 39-40, 56, 100, 102,176, 204n2 Vol’pe, Abram, 74 Voprosyfilosofii (Issues of Philosophy), 77,88, 140 Vygotsky, Lev, 110, 114 weather monitoring, 38,44, 45 Weick, Karl, 19,106,191 “Western” scientific tradition, 4,16,75,81, 123 what if reasoning, 30 “what is to come”, Russian words, 94 Wiener, Norbert: cybernetic prediction, 11,12, 59-65,68, 71; defining of cybernetics, 9,59; “events” and “messages”, 62; goal-steering, 54; information, 32; loops, 13,66; material ity, 67; teleology, 78 Wildawsky, Aaron, 120 will to power, 1,193 will to predict: beliefs behind, 46; legitimacy and ethical issues, 186, 189,191-92; fueled criticism, 97; generates models, 3; integrating force, 6; requires orchestration, 184; Soviet, 15 Window to the Future, A: The Contemporary Problems ofSocial Prognosis (1970), 94 World Dynamics (1978), 166 World Future Studies Federation, 91-92 world government, 166,174 Zadorin, Igor’, 98 Zan, Luca, 145 Zdravomyslova, Elena, 84 Zinov’ev, Aleksandr, 89,104, 108 Zuboff, Shoshana, 32, 35, 189 Zúbok, Vladislav, 97, 111, 156, 177, 202n47 Zvorykin, Anatolil, 83, 89,216n28 Bayerische Staatsbibliothek München |
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| author | Rindzevičiūtė, Eglė 1978- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)138273588 |
| author_facet | Rindzevičiūtė, Eglė 1978- |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Rindzevičiūtė, Eglė 1978- |
| author_variant | e r er |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV048991083 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1351455318 (DE-599)BVBBV048991083 |
| era | Geschichte gnd |
| era_facet | Geschichte |
| format | Book |
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| geographic | Sowjetunion (DE-588)4077548-3 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Sowjetunion |
| id | DE-604.BV048991083 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T22:07:09Z |
| indexdate | 2024-09-26T10:01:24Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781501769771 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-034254426 |
| oclc_num | 1351455318 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-12 DE-29 |
| owner_facet | DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-12 DE-29 |
| physical | xv, 286 Seiten Illustrationen |
| psigel | BSB_NED_20230814 |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateSearch | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | Cornell University Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Rindzevičiūtė, Eglė 1978- Verfasser (DE-588)138273588 aut The will to predict orchestrating the future through science Eglė Rindzevičiūtė Ithaca ; London Cornell University Press 2023 xv, 286 Seiten Illustrationen txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Geschichte gnd rswk-swf Verwaltung (DE-588)4063317-2 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Sowjetunion (DE-588)4077548-3 gnd rswk-swf Sowjetunion (DE-588)4077548-3 g Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s Verwaltung (DE-588)4063317-2 s Geschichte z DE-604 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe, PDF 978-1-5017-6978-8 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe, EPUB 978-1-5017-6979-5 Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034254426&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034254426&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Literaturverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034254426&sequence=000005&line_number=0003&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Register // Gemischte Register |
| spellingShingle | Rindzevičiūtė, Eglė 1978- The will to predict orchestrating the future through science Verwaltung (DE-588)4063317-2 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4063317-2 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4077548-3 |
| title | The will to predict orchestrating the future through science |
| title_auth | The will to predict orchestrating the future through science |
| title_exact_search | The will to predict orchestrating the future through science |
| title_exact_search_txtP | The will to predict orchestrating the future through science |
| title_full | The will to predict orchestrating the future through science Eglė Rindzevičiūtė |
| title_fullStr | The will to predict orchestrating the future through science Eglė Rindzevičiūtė |
| title_full_unstemmed | The will to predict orchestrating the future through science Eglė Rindzevičiūtė |
| title_short | The will to predict |
| title_sort | the will to predict orchestrating the future through science |
| title_sub | orchestrating the future through science |
| topic | Verwaltung (DE-588)4063317-2 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Verwaltung Prognose Sowjetunion |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034254426&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034254426&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034254426&sequence=000005&line_number=0003&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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