Debating the war in Ukraine: counterfactual histories and future possibilities
"Debating the War in Ukraine discusses whether the war could have been avoided, and, if so, how? In this dialogical book, the authors discuss nodal points of history in terms of counterfactuals and contrastive explanations, concluding by considering future possibilities. They start in the 1990s...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
London ; New York
Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group
2023
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| Schriftenreihe: | Routledge focus
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Literaturverzeichnis Register // Gemischte Register |
| Zusammenfassung: | "Debating the War in Ukraine discusses whether the war could have been avoided, and, if so, how? In this dialogical book, the authors discuss nodal points of history in terms of counterfactuals and contrastive explanations, concluding by considering future possibilities. They start in the 1990s where several causal elements of the war originate involving Russia’s economic developments and Europe’s security arrangements. Moving on to the next decade, they focus on the Iraq war, colour revolutions, and NATO’s 2008 announcement that Ukraine and Georgia will become members. Finally, they explore the past decade including the Ukrainian crisis of 2013–2014, the annexation of Crimea, and the consecutive war in east Ukraine. The current war can also be seen as a continuum of that war. The authors agree that NATO’s 2008 announcement on Ukraine’s and Georgia’s NATO membership was an unnecessary provocation, and that the implementation of the Minsk agreement could have prevented the current war, but otherwise their analysis of counterfactual possibilities differs, especially when it comes to the action-possibilities of the West (including diverse actors). These differences are not just dependent on different readings of relevant evidence but, importantly, stem from dissimilar contrast spaces and divergent theoretical understandings of the nature of states and mechanisms of international relations and political economy. This short, highly accessible book will be of great interest to all those studying and working in international relations and its various subfields such as peace and conflict studies and security studies, as well as all those wishing to understand more about the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022." |
| Beschreibung: | xii, 98 Seiten Diagramm |
| ISBN: | 9781032450827 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Contents Preface Summary vii ix Introduction: On Explanations, Contrasts, and Counterfactuals 1 2 The 1990s: Sowing the Seeds of War After the End of the Cold War 7 1 3 The 2000s: Wars, Revolutions, and Misfired Declarations 21 4 The 2010s: The War in Ukraine Starts 31 5 2021-2022: Coercive Diplomacy and the Outbreak of War 46 6 The Shape of Things to Come 61 Bibliography Index 80 92
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Index 9/114,22, 55 Afghanistan War 22, 52, 53, 60ո2 agency 5,12 Albania 24 Allen, Robert C. 12 analogies: Winter War 4, 78-79nl; World War 14; World War II4, 5-6,49-50 anarchy 41,42, 73 Angell, Norman 60n6 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty 73 Arendt, Hannah 16 Arias, Oscar 74 Armenia 32 Assange, Julian 39, 44n8 assassinations 28 atomism 41,44n 11 austerity politics 35 authoritarianism 78: global financial crisis 25; neoliberalisation 34; Russian, 14, 25,31,38,71 autocracy 78 Baker, James 8 Baltic states 7, 8 Belarus 23, 32, 33, 52 Berlin, Isaiah 59 best-case scenario 64-65 Bhaskar, Roy 59 Biden, Joe 34,48, 52, 73 British Empire 55 Brzezinski, Zbigniew 11 Budapest Memorandum 9, 50 Bulgaria 6 Burns, William 17 Bush, George W. 4,15,22, 55, 73 Cafruny, Alan 29nl, 43n7 Central America 37 Central Asia 36 certainty-of-hindsight bias see hindsight bias Charter on Strategic Partnership 47 Chechnya 24, 27, 28 chemical weapons 39, 51 Chernomyrdin, Viktor 19n5 China: development 13; future 72; Industrial Revolution counterfactual 2; Iraq War 22; nuclear weapons 73; socio economic developments 14; UN veto powers 15; US overseas military bases 43n4; weaponisation of interdependence 65; world order 69 Chomsky, Noam 79n2 Clark, Christopher 6n2 climate change 66, 77 Clinton, Bill 7, 15 coercive diplomacy 47, 58 Cold War: end of 4,7, 9,13,16, 21, 36,44n8, 69, 75; European security order 8; Finland 33, 37; “Finlandisation” 33; new 67-68, 71, 76; Sweden 37; US interests in Central America 37; US interventions 44n8; world politics analysed through prism of 58
Index colour revolutions 5, 23,25, 28, 52; Georgia 23-24; Ukraine 23-24, 26,51 Contact Group on the former Yugoslavia 9, 11 containment 68, 71-72 contrast space 2-3,19n3 contrastive explanations 1-6 coronavirus pandemic 48, 53, 54 corruption: Russia 21, 29; Ukraine 31,32,33, 37, 47, 52, 53 counterfactuals (general discussion) 1-6 Crimea: annexation 5, 12, 31, 32, 34, 38,46, 52, 61; forum 47, 57; future 62; NATO 36; return to Ukraine, calls for 47, 53, 56; Russian military base 51; US military base, potential 36; water supply cut off 48 Croatia 24 Cuban missile crisis 37, 50, 72 Czech Republic 14 Czechoslovakia 17 de-escalation of war 64, 66, 74 deterrence 66, 68 Deudney, Daniel 73 Deutsch, Karl W. 43n6, 76 disarmament 76 double standards 27, 28, 37, 39, 54 East Central Europe 7,16 East Germany 8 Eastern Europe: missile defence 30n2; NATO 29nl, 49; World War II6 end of history 14, 25 escalation of war 65-67, 69-71 essentialism 16,17,18,28, 54 ethical issues 4, 40, 54, 63, 64, 69 euro crisis 34, 35,38-39,44n9 Euromaidan protests 31-32, 35, 36, 38-39 EuroMemo Group 44n9 European security order 7-9, 14-15, 18,29nl,32 European Union (EU): association agreement 31, 32, 35; build-up to Ukraine War 47, 55; colour revolutions 23; Constitution 93 44n9; constitutive principles 38; economic developments 17; euro crisis 34, 35, 38-39,44n9; expansion 25; forces of change 39; future 70, 72; government expenditure 22; Greece’s situation 38; influence, methods of 44n8; membership, vs Russia’s dominance 37; military force 14; modernisation partnership with the US 27; national characteristics
28; neighbourhood programme 35; neoliberalism 22; Russia’s relationship with 16, 21,25, 38; Transnistrian conflict 26; Ukraine crisis (2013-2014) 31, 32, 33, 38-39; Ukraine’s development, attempts to influence 35 far-right groups 53; see also populism financialisation 20n6 Finland: Cold War 33, 37; GDP 70; inequality levels 14; public sector expenditure 22; trade with Soviet Union 45nl3; Winter War 4, 78-79Ո1; World War II 6 First World War see World War I food supply 69, 71 France: build-up to Ukraine War 57; disinformation 60n4; empire 55; European Constitution referendum 44n9; Iraq War 22, 26; Minsk II agreement 48; NATO 27; Revolution 42; UN veto powers 15 G-7 9 Gaddafi, Muammar 27 Garfinkel, Alan 4 gas and oil 12, 21,46 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) 38 geohistorical layers see layers of history Georgia: NATO 5,24,25, 27; Rose Revolution 23-24; Russian “peacekeeping” 9; Russo-Georgian War 24, 27, 34 Germany: build-up to Ukraine War 57; European security order 8; industrial production 14;
94 Index international norms 40; Iraq War 26; Minsk II agreement 48; NATO 27; unification 8,16,17; Winter War 78-79Ո1; World War II2,4, 51 glasnost 12 global financial crisis 25, 34-35, 39, 75 globalisation 14, 35, 36, 37 good faith in negotiations 51, 56, 58, 60n4 Gorbachev, Mikhail 8, 12 Gore, Al 4 Granoff, Jonathan 74 Great Depression 4 Greece 35,38 groupthink 54, 60n5 Harvey, Frank 4 Hegel, GH.E 42 Herwig, Holger 2 hindsight bias 2,49, 56, 58 historical nodal points see nodal points of history Hitler, Adolf 2,4 holism 45nll human rights 24, 28, 35, 37, 38,43n2; violations 39 Hungary 17 immediate/proximate causes of war 3,7, 15 India 69, 72 individualism 40,41,44-45nl 1 Industrial Revolution 2 information operations 34 intermediate causes of war 3 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty 73, 75 International Court of Justice 51 International Criminal Court 41 International Monetary Fund (IMF) 17, 35 International Relations 3, 25, 45nnll֊12 Iraq War 22, 26-27, 28, 58; counterfactual analysis 4; disinformation 60n4; irrationality 60n6; multipolarity principle 25; norm violations 39,40 Islamic terrorism 22 Ivashov, Leonid 12 Japan 12, 75 Jervis, Robert 70 Kant, Immanuel 42 Kazakhstan 33 Keal, Paul 36 Kekkonen, Urho 37 KGB 11 Khodorkovsky, Mikhail 28, 29 Kirill, Patriarch 53 Kissinger, Henry 79n2 Kosovo 38 Kosovo War 21, 58; disinformation 60n4; European security order 9, 17; multipolarity principle 25; Russian humiliation 10-11 Krause, Joachim 64 layers of history 5,16, 54 Lebed, Alexander 11 Libyan intervention 27,40, 58 Litvinenko, Alexander 28 Lukashenko, Alexander
33, 37 market economy 13, 23, 24, 35, 38, 43n2 Mearsheimer, John 9, 33, 35, 42-43nnl-2 Medvedev, Dmitri 27, 50 methodological nationalism/ globalism 45nll Middle East 71, 72 Milosevic, Slobodan 58 Minsk agreement 46,47,48, 54, 57 Minsk II agreement 46,48, 55, 56 Moldova 26, 33 Molotov-Ribbentrop pact 4 Monroe, James 36,43n3 Monroe Doctrine 36, 37, 40, 47 Moroccan crisis (1911)5 Munich agreement 4 mutually hurting stalemate 67, 70 nationalism: EuroMemo Group 44n9; global financial crisis 25; methodological 45nl 1;
Index neoliberalisation 34; Russia 4, 11, 22, 25, 71; Ukraine 39,51 NATO: Bucharest summit (2008) 24, 27; build-up to Ukraine War 47-57; colour revolutions 23; dissolution counterfactual 21, 29nl; expansion 5-10,15-17, 22, 24-25, 28, 29-ЗОпІ, 39, 51, 52, 54, 72; future 65; Georgia 5,24, 25, 27; intentions as perceived by Russia 43n2; Kosovo War 17,20n6; Libyan intervention 27; Membership Action Plan 27, 52; membership, vs Russia’s dominance 37; military support for Ukraine 63-64; nuclear strategy 65, 75; and OSCE, choice between 29nl; partnership programme 9; Russia as permanent outsider 25; Russia as potential member 8, 15, 16, 22; Ukraine as potential member 5, 24-25, 27, 39,46-47, 51-53, 55-56,60n3; US leadership 15, 77 Navalny, Aleksey 34,44n8 Nazism 51,59, 78-79nl neo-imperialism 22-23, 33, 52-53, 55, 73, 75 neoliberalism 13,16, 34, 35; EU initiatives 35; hegemony 14; oligarchs 29; Russia 22, 24, 29; universalising programme 24 neorealism 45nll neo-revisionism 24, 71 Netherlands 44n9 New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) 73 nodal points of history 1, 21; Bush administration (2001-2005) 22-23; colour revolutions 23; Crimea’s annexation 34; eastern Ukraine war (2014) 34; global financial crisis 25; Iraq War 22, 25; Putin’s first vs second terms 25-26; Ukrainian crisis (2013-2014) 34 Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty (NPT) 73,74 North Africa 71 North Atlantic Treaty Organization see NATO 95 nuclear weapons/war: Budapest Memorandum 9; containment 71; future 62, 65-68, 72-76; Iraq War 39; NATO 15; Ukraine 43nl, 51; US 37; Wells’s anticipation of 5; World War
II counterfactual 2 oil and gas 12, 21,46 oligarchs 13,14, 29; financialisation 20n6; Khodorkovsky 28,29; Putin’s agreement with 21 organised crime 13 Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE): Budapest conference (1994) 16; build-up to Ukraine War 47; as central security forum 17; Charter of Paris for a New Europe 8, 18nl; Donbas conflict 47; Istanbul Charter for European Security 18nl; and NATO, choice between 29nl; and prevention of war 7, 14-15; Russia’s status in 15, 77; Ukraine’s Orange Revolution 26 O’Rourke, Lindsay 40 Orwell, George, Nineteen Eightv-Four 77 OSCE see Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe peace: prospects for 61-62, 64—67, 69, 75-78; research 3 Peloponnesian War 6n 1 perestroika 12 Peter the Great 53 Poland 7,17 politics and violence 64-65, 76 populism 34, 78: build-up to Ukraine War 53; EuroMemo Group 44n9; Russia 71 ; Ukraine 39 Pottering, Hans-Gert 19n5 poverty: Russia 13, 21; Ukraine 35 precautionary principle 66 processual social theories 19n4 Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Treaty 74 prospect theory 53-54 proximate/immediate causes of war 3, 7,15
96 Index Putin, Vladimir: assassinations ordered by 38; authoritarianism 31; Berlin speech (2001) 25-26; build-up to war 46-56, 58, 60n5; colour revolutions 26; election (2000) 21; European security order 8; first vs second terms as nodal point 25-26; future 61, 62, 64, 67, 68, 74; Iraq War 23, 26; Kosovo War 20n6; Mearsheimer on 42nl; Munich speech (2007) 26; nuclear deterrence 72; and oligarchs 21, 28,29; ousting 38, 52; as person and leader?, 11-12, 16, 38, 39, 54; popularity 68; prospect theory 60n3; re-election (2012) 31, 52-53; rise 5,10,21, 24; sanctions 33; securitisation 24; summit with Biden (June 2021) 48; World War II analogies 4 quantum social theories 19n4 Reagan, Ronald 13 refugee crisis 34 Russia: anti-government protests 31, 36, 39; Beslan terrorist attack (2004) 27; build-up to war 46-58; colour revolutions 23-24, 28; constitutional crisis (1993) 10; Contact Group on the former Yugoslavia 9,11 ; counterfactuals and contrastive explanations 4-5; crime 21; Crimea see Crimea; démocratisation failure 7, 10; economic development (1990s) 10, 12-13,17, 18; economic development (2000s) 21, 24,26; European security order 7-9; and EU, relationship between 16, 21, 25, 38; foreign policy (2000s) 25,26, 28; future 61-75, 77-78; Georgian War 24,27, 34; global security system 37; government expenditure 22; grand strategy 43n7; humiliation 4, 10-11, 14, 16, 26, 56, 57-58, 77; individualism 40-^41 ; Iraq War 22,23, 25, 26-27; Kosovo War 10-11; Libyan intervention 27; media 10,28, 50-51, 58; Moscow terrorist attack (2002) 27; national characteristics 28,41 ; national
selfesteem 9; nationalism 4; NATO, expansion 7-8,15,16,17,24,27; NATO, perceived intentions 43n2; NATO, Russia as permanent outsider 25; NATO, Russia as potential member 8,15,16,22; neo-imperialism 33, 52-53, 55; neoliberalism 22, 24, 29; neo revisionism 24; norm violations 39-40; OSCE 7,15; Putin’s first vs second terms as nodal point 25-26; Putin’s project 21-22; regime change 68, 72; relationship with the West (2010s) 33-34; repositioning (2000s) 25; sanctions 33-34, 65, 71-72, 77; Second Chechen War 27; securitisation 24; securocracy 28; shock therapy 13,14; spheres of influence 26, 31-33,36,40, 41,42nl; territorial change 9-10; Ukraine’s development, attempts to influence 35; Ukrainian crisis (2013-2014) 31-32,42nl; UN veto powers 15; US overseas military bases 43n4; weakening position in world economy 46; weaponisation of interdependence 65; Western aspirations 38; Winter War analogies 4, 78-79nl; World War II analogies 4, 5-6,49-50 “Russia first” policy 9 Russo-Georgian War 24,27, 34 Sachs, Jeffrey 13, 79n2 Sakwa, Richard 71 sanctions 33-34, 65, 71-72,77 Sanders, Bernie 39 Schmitt, Carl 42 Scholz, Olaf 50 Second Chechen War 24,27 Second World War see World War II securitisation 23-24,29, 35,36, 38 securocracy 28 Shevardnadze, Eduard 17 Shifrinson, Joshua 40 shock therapy 13, 14, 17 siloviks 28
Index sleepwalking metaphor 4 Slovakia 14 Slovenia 14 social constructivism 45nl 1 social structures and mechanisms 5 Solana, Javier 26 Soviet Union/former Soviet Union: Cold War, end of 75; collapse 5, 8-12,14; continuation counterfactual 13; European security order 8, 9; NATO expansion 17; neo-imperialism 52; nostalgia for 55; shock therapy 17; spheres of interest 36; territorial change 9-10; Winter War 4, 78-79nl; world economy 41; World War 1151 spheres of influence/interest 26, 31-33,36,40,41,42nl stalemate, mutually hurting 67, 70 Stalin, Joseph 78nl Stiglitz, Joseph 13 structuration 16 Sweden 37,44n8 SWIFT 72, 77 Taiwan 69 Tajikistan 9,43n4 tax havens 20n6 taxation 22 Tetlock, Philip 56, 62, 63 Thatcher, Margaret 13 Thucydides, Peloponnesian War 6nnl, 3 Transnistria 9, 26 Treaty on the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe 30n2 Trump, Donald: character 58; and the EU 39; nuclear weapons 73, 74, 75; West-Russia relationship 33, 34 Tsygankov, Andrei and Pavel 25 Turkey 74 Ukraine: Bucha massacre and atrocities 61, 65; Budapest Memorandum 9; build-up to war 46-58; counterfactuals and contrastive explanations 4-5; Crimea see Crimea; crisis (2013-2014) 5,31-32, 34, 97 38-39; divisions 37; Donbas 46,47, 51; Donetsk 47; east Ukraine war (2014) 5, 31, 32, 34; economic development 21, 34-35; “Finlandised” 32-33; future 61-74, 78; genocide claims 51; independence 11; language issues 39; Luhansk 47; Maidan protest movement 31-32; military capabilities 47, 52, 53, 56, 57, 63-64, 67, 70; NATO potential membership 5, 24-25,27, 39, 46-47, 51-53, 55-56, 60n3; Orange Revolution 23-24,
26, 51; spheres of influence 40; Winter War analogies 4; World War I analogies 4; World War II analogies 5-6 ultimate/underlying causes of war 3, 5 underlying/ultímate causes of war 3,5 Union of Soviet Socialist Republics see Soviet Union/former Soviet Union United Kingdom: disinformation 60n4; Iraq War 22, 25, 28; naval armament 23; UN veto powers 15 United Nations (UN): Charter 69; condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 69; European security order 9; international law 38; Iraq War 22, 25; Kosovo War 20n6, 21 ; Libyan intervention 27; military assistance 70; and prevention of war 14-15; Russia’s privileged position 15; veto powers 15, 77 United Russia 21-22 United States: 9/11 4, 22, 55; Afghanistan withdrawal 52, 53; Assange 40; build-up to Ukraine War 47-49, 51-53, 55, 58; Bush administration (2001-2005) 22-23; Cold War, violent interventions during 44n8; colour revolutions 23; Contact Group on the former Yugoslavia 9; disinformation 60n4; domestic politics 68; economic developments 17; and the EU, relationship between 27, 39; future 65,69, 72-74; geopolitical interests and vision 35-36; Grand Strategy Bayerisch® ЅШгЖШбИ 5Ш« J
98 Index 25, 37, 38,43ո7; hegemony 22,25, 41; Iraq War 22, 25,26, 28; Islamic terrorism threat 22; Maidan protest movement 31 ; military aid to Ukraine 48, 52; military bases overseas 36; military force 14; military-industrial complex 29nl; Monroe Doctrine 36, 37, 40,47; national characteristics 28; National Security Strategy 23; NATO, expansion 7, 8,15, 27, 29nl; NATO, leadership 15, 77; NATO, Russia’s potential membership 22; neo-imperialism 22-23; norm violations 39,40; nuclear weapons 37, 73, 74, 75; “reset” policy 27; rule of law 41; Russian individualism 41; Soviet Union’s collapse 14; spheres of influence/interest 36, 41; Ukraine’s development, attempts to influence 35; UN veto powers 15; war on terror 24; World War II counterfactual 2 Unity 21 universal monarchy/dictatorship 41^12 Versailles peace treaty 4 violence and politics 64-65, 76 Visegrad countries 17 Voronin, Vladimir 26 Waltz, Kenneth 7 Walzer, Michael 70 war crimes 62 war on terror 24 war reparations 62 Warsaw Pact 16 weaponisation of interdependence 65 Wells, H.G, The World Set Free 5 Wendt, Alexander 42 “Westsplaining” 66-67, 70 “whataboutism” 26,28, 38, 39,40,41 Winter War 4, 78-79nl world economy 46 world order 68,69, 71 world time 19-20n6,41 World Trade Organization (WTO) 38 World War 13^, 5 World War II: aftermath 68; analogies with Ukraine War 4, 5-6,49-50; counterfactual analysis 2; Germany’s surprise attack on Soviet Union 51; normatively loaded language 59; nuclear weapons 75; Operation Barbarossa 17; spheres of influence 36 worst-case scenario 64, 65-66 Yandarbiyev, Zelimkhan 28 Yanukovych,
Viktor 26, 31, 32, 39 Yeltsin, Boris: drunkenness 11 ; European security order 8; hegemony 14; NATO expansion 16; neoliberalism 22; potential successors 11 ; shock therapy 17 Yugoslavia 10, 58; Contact Group on the former 9,11; see also Kosovo War Yushchenko, Viktor 26 Zelenskyy, Volodymyr 47, 52 Bayerische StaatsMbltoftek
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Contents Preface Summary vii ix Introduction: On Explanations, Contrasts, and Counterfactuals 1 2 The 1990s: Sowing the Seeds of War After the End of the Cold War 7 1 3 The 2000s: Wars, Revolutions, and Misfired Declarations 21 4 The 2010s: The War in Ukraine Starts 31 5 2021-2022: Coercive Diplomacy and the Outbreak of War 46 6 The Shape of Things to Come 61 Bibliography Index 80 92
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Index 9/114,22, 55 Afghanistan War 22, 52, 53, 60ո2 agency 5,12 Albania 24 Allen, Robert C. 12 analogies: Winter War 4, 78-79nl; World War 14; World War II4, 5-6,49-50 anarchy 41,42, 73 Angell, Norman 60n6 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty 73 Arendt, Hannah 16 Arias, Oscar 74 Armenia 32 Assange, Julian 39, 44n8 assassinations 28 atomism 41,44n 11 austerity politics 35 authoritarianism 78: global financial crisis 25; neoliberalisation 34; Russian, 14, 25,31,38,71 autocracy 78 Baker, James 8 Baltic states 7, 8 Belarus 23, 32, 33, 52 Berlin, Isaiah 59 best-case scenario 64-65 Bhaskar, Roy 59 Biden, Joe 34,48, 52, 73 British Empire 55 Brzezinski, Zbigniew 11 Budapest Memorandum 9, 50 Bulgaria 6 Burns, William 17 Bush, George W. 4,15,22, 55, 73 Cafruny, Alan 29nl, 43n7 Central America 37 Central Asia 36 certainty-of-hindsight bias see hindsight bias Charter on Strategic Partnership 47 Chechnya 24, 27, 28 chemical weapons 39, 51 Chernomyrdin, Viktor 19n5 China: development 13; future 72; Industrial Revolution counterfactual 2; Iraq War 22; nuclear weapons 73; socio economic developments 14; UN veto powers 15; US overseas military bases 43n4; weaponisation of interdependence 65; world order 69 Chomsky, Noam 79n2 Clark, Christopher 6n2 climate change 66, 77 Clinton, Bill 7, 15 coercive diplomacy 47, 58 Cold War: end of 4,7, 9,13,16, 21, 36,44n8, 69, 75; European security order 8; Finland 33, 37; “Finlandisation” 33; new 67-68, 71, 76; Sweden 37; US interests in Central America 37; US interventions 44n8; world politics analysed through prism of 58
Index colour revolutions 5, 23,25, 28, 52; Georgia 23-24; Ukraine 23-24, 26,51 Contact Group on the former Yugoslavia 9, 11 containment 68, 71-72 contrast space 2-3,19n3 contrastive explanations 1-6 coronavirus pandemic 48, 53, 54 corruption: Russia 21, 29; Ukraine 31,32,33, 37, 47, 52, 53 counterfactuals (general discussion) 1-6 Crimea: annexation 5, 12, 31, 32, 34, 38,46, 52, 61; forum 47, 57; future 62; NATO 36; return to Ukraine, calls for 47, 53, 56; Russian military base 51; US military base, potential 36; water supply cut off 48 Croatia 24 Cuban missile crisis 37, 50, 72 Czech Republic 14 Czechoslovakia 17 de-escalation of war 64, 66, 74 deterrence 66, 68 Deudney, Daniel 73 Deutsch, Karl W. 43n6, 76 disarmament 76 double standards 27, 28, 37, 39, 54 East Central Europe 7,16 East Germany 8 Eastern Europe: missile defence 30n2; NATO 29nl, 49; World War II6 end of history 14, 25 escalation of war 65-67, 69-71 essentialism 16,17,18,28, 54 ethical issues 4, 40, 54, 63, 64, 69 euro crisis 34, 35,38-39,44n9 Euromaidan protests 31-32, 35, 36, 38-39 EuroMemo Group 44n9 European security order 7-9, 14-15, 18,29nl,32 European Union (EU): association agreement 31, 32, 35; build-up to Ukraine War 47, 55; colour revolutions 23; Constitution 93 44n9; constitutive principles 38; economic developments 17; euro crisis 34, 35, 38-39,44n9; expansion 25; forces of change 39; future 70, 72; government expenditure 22; Greece’s situation 38; influence, methods of 44n8; membership, vs Russia’s dominance 37; military force 14; modernisation partnership with the US 27; national characteristics
28; neighbourhood programme 35; neoliberalism 22; Russia’s relationship with 16, 21,25, 38; Transnistrian conflict 26; Ukraine crisis (2013-2014) 31, 32, 33, 38-39; Ukraine’s development, attempts to influence 35 far-right groups 53; see also populism financialisation 20n6 Finland: Cold War 33, 37; GDP 70; inequality levels 14; public sector expenditure 22; trade with Soviet Union 45nl3; Winter War 4, 78-79Ո1; World War II 6 First World War see World War I food supply 69, 71 France: build-up to Ukraine War 57; disinformation 60n4; empire 55; European Constitution referendum 44n9; Iraq War 22, 26; Minsk II agreement 48; NATO 27; Revolution 42; UN veto powers 15 G-7 9 Gaddafi, Muammar 27 Garfinkel, Alan 4 gas and oil 12, 21,46 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) 38 geohistorical layers see layers of history Georgia: NATO 5,24,25, 27; Rose Revolution 23-24; Russian “peacekeeping” 9; Russo-Georgian War 24, 27, 34 Germany: build-up to Ukraine War 57; European security order 8; industrial production 14;
94 Index international norms 40; Iraq War 26; Minsk II agreement 48; NATO 27; unification 8,16,17; Winter War 78-79Ո1; World War II2,4, 51 glasnost 12 global financial crisis 25, 34-35, 39, 75 globalisation 14, 35, 36, 37 good faith in negotiations 51, 56, 58, 60n4 Gorbachev, Mikhail 8, 12 Gore, Al 4 Granoff, Jonathan 74 Great Depression 4 Greece 35,38 groupthink 54, 60n5 Harvey, Frank 4 Hegel, GH.E 42 Herwig, Holger 2 hindsight bias 2,49, 56, 58 historical nodal points see nodal points of history Hitler, Adolf 2,4 holism 45nll human rights 24, 28, 35, 37, 38,43n2; violations 39 Hungary 17 immediate/proximate causes of war 3,7, 15 India 69, 72 individualism 40,41,44-45nl 1 Industrial Revolution 2 information operations 34 intermediate causes of war 3 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty 73, 75 International Court of Justice 51 International Criminal Court 41 International Monetary Fund (IMF) 17, 35 International Relations 3, 25, 45nnll֊12 Iraq War 22, 26-27, 28, 58; counterfactual analysis 4; disinformation 60n4; irrationality 60n6; multipolarity principle 25; norm violations 39,40 Islamic terrorism 22 Ivashov, Leonid 12 Japan 12, 75 Jervis, Robert 70 Kant, Immanuel 42 Kazakhstan 33 Keal, Paul 36 Kekkonen, Urho 37 KGB 11 Khodorkovsky, Mikhail 28, 29 Kirill, Patriarch 53 Kissinger, Henry 79n2 Kosovo 38 Kosovo War 21, 58; disinformation 60n4; European security order 9, 17; multipolarity principle 25; Russian humiliation 10-11 Krause, Joachim 64 layers of history 5,16, 54 Lebed, Alexander 11 Libyan intervention 27,40, 58 Litvinenko, Alexander 28 Lukashenko, Alexander
33, 37 market economy 13, 23, 24, 35, 38, 43n2 Mearsheimer, John 9, 33, 35, 42-43nnl-2 Medvedev, Dmitri 27, 50 methodological nationalism/ globalism 45nll Middle East 71, 72 Milosevic, Slobodan 58 Minsk agreement 46,47,48, 54, 57 Minsk II agreement 46,48, 55, 56 Moldova 26, 33 Molotov-Ribbentrop pact 4 Monroe, James 36,43n3 Monroe Doctrine 36, 37, 40, 47 Moroccan crisis (1911)5 Munich agreement 4 mutually hurting stalemate 67, 70 nationalism: EuroMemo Group 44n9; global financial crisis 25; methodological 45nl 1;
Index neoliberalisation 34; Russia 4, 11, 22, 25, 71; Ukraine 39,51 NATO: Bucharest summit (2008) 24, 27; build-up to Ukraine War 47-57; colour revolutions 23; dissolution counterfactual 21, 29nl; expansion 5-10,15-17, 22, 24-25, 28, 29-ЗОпІ, 39, 51, 52, 54, 72; future 65; Georgia 5,24, 25, 27; intentions as perceived by Russia 43n2; Kosovo War 17,20n6; Libyan intervention 27; Membership Action Plan 27, 52; membership, vs Russia’s dominance 37; military support for Ukraine 63-64; nuclear strategy 65, 75; and OSCE, choice between 29nl; partnership programme 9; Russia as permanent outsider 25; Russia as potential member 8, 15, 16, 22; Ukraine as potential member 5, 24-25, 27, 39,46-47, 51-53, 55-56,60n3; US leadership 15, 77 Navalny, Aleksey 34,44n8 Nazism 51,59, 78-79nl neo-imperialism 22-23, 33, 52-53, 55, 73, 75 neoliberalism 13,16, 34, 35; EU initiatives 35; hegemony 14; oligarchs 29; Russia 22, 24, 29; universalising programme 24 neorealism 45nll neo-revisionism 24, 71 Netherlands 44n9 New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) 73 nodal points of history 1, 21; Bush administration (2001-2005) 22-23; colour revolutions 23; Crimea’s annexation 34; eastern Ukraine war (2014) 34; global financial crisis 25; Iraq War 22, 25; Putin’s first vs second terms 25-26; Ukrainian crisis (2013-2014) 34 Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty (NPT) 73,74 North Africa 71 North Atlantic Treaty Organization see NATO 95 nuclear weapons/war: Budapest Memorandum 9; containment 71; future 62, 65-68, 72-76; Iraq War 39; NATO 15; Ukraine 43nl, 51; US 37; Wells’s anticipation of 5; World War
II counterfactual 2 oil and gas 12, 21,46 oligarchs 13,14, 29; financialisation 20n6; Khodorkovsky 28,29; Putin’s agreement with 21 organised crime 13 Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE): Budapest conference (1994) 16; build-up to Ukraine War 47; as central security forum 17; Charter of Paris for a New Europe 8, 18nl; Donbas conflict 47; Istanbul Charter for European Security 18nl; and NATO, choice between 29nl; and prevention of war 7, 14-15; Russia’s status in 15, 77; Ukraine’s Orange Revolution 26 O’Rourke, Lindsay 40 Orwell, George, Nineteen Eightv-Four 77 OSCE see Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe peace: prospects for 61-62, 64—67, 69, 75-78; research 3 Peloponnesian War 6n 1 perestroika 12 Peter the Great 53 Poland 7,17 politics and violence 64-65, 76 populism 34, 78: build-up to Ukraine War 53; EuroMemo Group 44n9; Russia 71 ; Ukraine 39 Pottering, Hans-Gert 19n5 poverty: Russia 13, 21; Ukraine 35 precautionary principle 66 processual social theories 19n4 Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Treaty 74 prospect theory 53-54 proximate/immediate causes of war 3, 7,15
96 Index Putin, Vladimir: assassinations ordered by 38; authoritarianism 31; Berlin speech (2001) 25-26; build-up to war 46-56, 58, 60n5; colour revolutions 26; election (2000) 21; European security order 8; first vs second terms as nodal point 25-26; future 61, 62, 64, 67, 68, 74; Iraq War 23, 26; Kosovo War 20n6; Mearsheimer on 42nl; Munich speech (2007) 26; nuclear deterrence 72; and oligarchs 21, 28,29; ousting 38, 52; as person and leader?, 11-12, 16, 38, 39, 54; popularity 68; prospect theory 60n3; re-election (2012) 31, 52-53; rise 5,10,21, 24; sanctions 33; securitisation 24; summit with Biden (June 2021) 48; World War II analogies 4 quantum social theories 19n4 Reagan, Ronald 13 refugee crisis 34 Russia: anti-government protests 31, 36, 39; Beslan terrorist attack (2004) 27; build-up to war 46-58; colour revolutions 23-24, 28; constitutional crisis (1993) 10; Contact Group on the former Yugoslavia 9,11 ; counterfactuals and contrastive explanations 4-5; crime 21; Crimea see Crimea; démocratisation failure 7, 10; economic development (1990s) 10, 12-13,17, 18; economic development (2000s) 21, 24,26; European security order 7-9; and EU, relationship between 16, 21, 25, 38; foreign policy (2000s) 25,26, 28; future 61-75, 77-78; Georgian War 24,27, 34; global security system 37; government expenditure 22; grand strategy 43n7; humiliation 4, 10-11, 14, 16, 26, 56, 57-58, 77; individualism 40-^41 ; Iraq War 22,23, 25, 26-27; Kosovo War 10-11; Libyan intervention 27; media 10,28, 50-51, 58; Moscow terrorist attack (2002) 27; national characteristics 28,41 ; national
selfesteem 9; nationalism 4; NATO, expansion 7-8,15,16,17,24,27; NATO, perceived intentions 43n2; NATO, Russia as permanent outsider 25; NATO, Russia as potential member 8,15,16,22; neo-imperialism 33, 52-53, 55; neoliberalism 22, 24, 29; neo revisionism 24; norm violations 39-40; OSCE 7,15; Putin’s first vs second terms as nodal point 25-26; Putin’s project 21-22; regime change 68, 72; relationship with the West (2010s) 33-34; repositioning (2000s) 25; sanctions 33-34, 65, 71-72, 77; Second Chechen War 27; securitisation 24; securocracy 28; shock therapy 13,14; spheres of influence 26, 31-33,36,40, 41,42nl; territorial change 9-10; Ukraine’s development, attempts to influence 35; Ukrainian crisis (2013-2014) 31-32,42nl; UN veto powers 15; US overseas military bases 43n4; weakening position in world economy 46; weaponisation of interdependence 65; Western aspirations 38; Winter War analogies 4, 78-79nl; World War II analogies 4, 5-6,49-50 “Russia first” policy 9 Russo-Georgian War 24,27, 34 Sachs, Jeffrey 13, 79n2 Sakwa, Richard 71 sanctions 33-34, 65, 71-72,77 Sanders, Bernie 39 Schmitt, Carl 42 Scholz, Olaf 50 Second Chechen War 24,27 Second World War see World War II securitisation 23-24,29, 35,36, 38 securocracy 28 Shevardnadze, Eduard 17 Shifrinson, Joshua 40 shock therapy 13, 14, 17 siloviks 28
Index sleepwalking metaphor 4 Slovakia 14 Slovenia 14 social constructivism 45nl 1 social structures and mechanisms 5 Solana, Javier 26 Soviet Union/former Soviet Union: Cold War, end of 75; collapse 5, 8-12,14; continuation counterfactual 13; European security order 8, 9; NATO expansion 17; neo-imperialism 52; nostalgia for 55; shock therapy 17; spheres of interest 36; territorial change 9-10; Winter War 4, 78-79nl; world economy 41; World War 1151 spheres of influence/interest 26, 31-33,36,40,41,42nl stalemate, mutually hurting 67, 70 Stalin, Joseph 78nl Stiglitz, Joseph 13 structuration 16 Sweden 37,44n8 SWIFT 72, 77 Taiwan 69 Tajikistan 9,43n4 tax havens 20n6 taxation 22 Tetlock, Philip 56, 62, 63 Thatcher, Margaret 13 Thucydides, Peloponnesian War 6nnl, 3 Transnistria 9, 26 Treaty on the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe 30n2 Trump, Donald: character 58; and the EU 39; nuclear weapons 73, 74, 75; West-Russia relationship 33, 34 Tsygankov, Andrei and Pavel 25 Turkey 74 Ukraine: Bucha massacre and atrocities 61, 65; Budapest Memorandum 9; build-up to war 46-58; counterfactuals and contrastive explanations 4-5; Crimea see Crimea; crisis (2013-2014) 5,31-32, 34, 97 38-39; divisions 37; Donbas 46,47, 51; Donetsk 47; east Ukraine war (2014) 5, 31, 32, 34; economic development 21, 34-35; “Finlandised” 32-33; future 61-74, 78; genocide claims 51; independence 11; language issues 39; Luhansk 47; Maidan protest movement 31-32; military capabilities 47, 52, 53, 56, 57, 63-64, 67, 70; NATO potential membership 5, 24-25,27, 39, 46-47, 51-53, 55-56, 60n3; Orange Revolution 23-24,
26, 51; spheres of influence 40; Winter War analogies 4; World War I analogies 4; World War II analogies 5-6 ultimate/underlying causes of war 3, 5 underlying/ultímate causes of war 3,5 Union of Soviet Socialist Republics see Soviet Union/former Soviet Union United Kingdom: disinformation 60n4; Iraq War 22, 25, 28; naval armament 23; UN veto powers 15 United Nations (UN): Charter 69; condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 69; European security order 9; international law 38; Iraq War 22, 25; Kosovo War 20n6, 21 ; Libyan intervention 27; military assistance 70; and prevention of war 14-15; Russia’s privileged position 15; veto powers 15, 77 United Russia 21-22 United States: 9/11 4, 22, 55; Afghanistan withdrawal 52, 53; Assange 40; build-up to Ukraine War 47-49, 51-53, 55, 58; Bush administration (2001-2005) 22-23; Cold War, violent interventions during 44n8; colour revolutions 23; Contact Group on the former Yugoslavia 9; disinformation 60n4; domestic politics 68; economic developments 17; and the EU, relationship between 27, 39; future 65,69, 72-74; geopolitical interests and vision 35-36; Grand Strategy Bayerisch® \ ЅШгЖШбИ 5Ш« J
98 Index 25, 37, 38,43ո7; hegemony 22,25, 41; Iraq War 22, 25,26, 28; Islamic terrorism threat 22; Maidan protest movement 31 ; military aid to Ukraine 48, 52; military bases overseas 36; military force 14; military-industrial complex 29nl; Monroe Doctrine 36, 37, 40,47; national characteristics 28; National Security Strategy 23; NATO, expansion 7, 8,15, 27, 29nl; NATO, leadership 15, 77; NATO, Russia’s potential membership 22; neo-imperialism 22-23; norm violations 39,40; nuclear weapons 37, 73, 74, 75; “reset” policy 27; rule of law 41; Russian individualism 41; Soviet Union’s collapse 14; spheres of influence/interest 36, 41; Ukraine’s development, attempts to influence 35; UN veto powers 15; war on terror 24; World War II counterfactual 2 Unity 21 universal monarchy/dictatorship 41^12 Versailles peace treaty 4 violence and politics 64-65, 76 Visegrad countries 17 Voronin, Vladimir 26 Waltz, Kenneth 7 Walzer, Michael 70 war crimes 62 war on terror 24 war reparations 62 Warsaw Pact 16 weaponisation of interdependence 65 Wells, H.G, The World Set Free 5 Wendt, Alexander 42 “Westsplaining” 66-67, 70 “whataboutism” 26,28, 38, 39,40,41 Winter War 4, 78-79nl world economy 46 world order 68,69, 71 world time 19-20n6,41 World Trade Organization (WTO) 38 World War 13^, 5 World War II: aftermath 68; analogies with Ukraine War 4, 5-6,49-50; counterfactual analysis 2; Germany’s surprise attack on Soviet Union 51; normatively loaded language 59; nuclear weapons 75; Operation Barbarossa 17; spheres of influence 36 worst-case scenario 64, 65-66 Yandarbiyev, Zelimkhan 28 Yanukovych,
Viktor 26, 31, 32, 39 Yeltsin, Boris: drunkenness 11 ; European security order 8; hegemony 14; NATO expansion 16; neoliberalism 22; potential successors 11 ; shock therapy 17 Yugoslavia 10, 58; Contact Group on the former 9,11; see also Kosovo War Yushchenko, Viktor 26 Zelenskyy, Volodymyr 47, 52 Bayerische StaatsMbltoftek |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| any_adam_object_boolean | 1 |
| author | Forsberg, Tuomas 1967- Patomäki, Heikki 1963- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)1057426903 (DE-588)171664078 |
| author_facet | Forsberg, Tuomas 1967- Patomäki, Heikki 1963- |
| author_role | aut aut |
| author_sort | Forsberg, Tuomas 1967- |
| author_variant | t f tf h p hp |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV048896518 |
| classification_rvk | MG 82940 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1378572162 (DE-599)BVBBV048896518 |
| discipline | Politologie |
| discipline_str_mv | Politologie |
| era | Geschichte 1992- gnd |
| era_facet | Geschichte 1992- |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV048896518 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T21:49:39Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:49:10Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781032450827 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-034161020 |
| oclc_num | 1378572162 |
| open_access_boolean | |
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| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR |
| physical | xii, 98 Seiten Diagramm |
| psigel | BSB_NED_20230717 |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateSearch | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group |
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| spelling | Forsberg, Tuomas 1967- Verfasser (DE-588)1057426903 aut Debating the war in Ukraine counterfactual histories and future possibilities Tuomas Forsberg and Heikki Patomäki London ; New York Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group 2023 xii, 98 Seiten Diagramm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Routledge focus "Debating the War in Ukraine discusses whether the war could have been avoided, and, if so, how? In this dialogical book, the authors discuss nodal points of history in terms of counterfactuals and contrastive explanations, concluding by considering future possibilities. They start in the 1990s where several causal elements of the war originate involving Russia’s economic developments and Europe’s security arrangements. Moving on to the next decade, they focus on the Iraq war, colour revolutions, and NATO’s 2008 announcement that Ukraine and Georgia will become members. Finally, they explore the past decade including the Ukrainian crisis of 2013–2014, the annexation of Crimea, and the consecutive war in east Ukraine. The current war can also be seen as a continuum of that war. The authors agree that NATO’s 2008 announcement on Ukraine’s and Georgia’s NATO membership was an unnecessary provocation, and that the implementation of the Minsk agreement could have prevented the current war, but otherwise their analysis of counterfactual possibilities differs, especially when it comes to the action-possibilities of the West (including diverse actors). These differences are not just dependent on different readings of relevant evidence but, importantly, stem from dissimilar contrast spaces and divergent theoretical understandings of the nature of states and mechanisms of international relations and political economy. This short, highly accessible book will be of great interest to all those studying and working in international relations and its various subfields such as peace and conflict studies and security studies, as well as all those wishing to understand more about the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022." Geschichte 1992- gnd rswk-swf Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg (DE-588)106969780X gnd rswk-swf Kontrafaktisches Denken (DE-588)4577003-7 gnd rswk-swf Vorgeschichte (DE-588)4138921-9 gnd rswk-swf Ukraine Conflict, 2014- / Causes Russia (Federation) / Foreign relations Diplomatic relations War / Causes Russia (Federation) 2014 Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg (DE-588)106969780X s Vorgeschichte (DE-588)4138921-9 s Kontrafaktisches Denken (DE-588)4577003-7 s Geschichte 1992- z DE-604 Patomäki, Heikki 1963- Verfasser (DE-588)171664078 aut Äquivalent Druck-Ausgabe, Paperback 978-1-03-245086-5 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-1-00-085167-0 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe, ebk 978-1-003-37532-6 Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034161020&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034161020&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Literaturverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034161020&sequence=000005&line_number=0003&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Register // Gemischte Register |
| spellingShingle | Forsberg, Tuomas 1967- Patomäki, Heikki 1963- Debating the war in Ukraine counterfactual histories and future possibilities Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg (DE-588)106969780X gnd Kontrafaktisches Denken (DE-588)4577003-7 gnd Vorgeschichte (DE-588)4138921-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)106969780X (DE-588)4577003-7 (DE-588)4138921-9 |
| title | Debating the war in Ukraine counterfactual histories and future possibilities |
| title_auth | Debating the war in Ukraine counterfactual histories and future possibilities |
| title_exact_search | Debating the war in Ukraine counterfactual histories and future possibilities |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Debating the war in Ukraine counterfactual histories and future possibilities |
| title_full | Debating the war in Ukraine counterfactual histories and future possibilities Tuomas Forsberg and Heikki Patomäki |
| title_fullStr | Debating the war in Ukraine counterfactual histories and future possibilities Tuomas Forsberg and Heikki Patomäki |
| title_full_unstemmed | Debating the war in Ukraine counterfactual histories and future possibilities Tuomas Forsberg and Heikki Patomäki |
| title_short | Debating the war in Ukraine |
| title_sort | debating the war in ukraine counterfactual histories and future possibilities |
| title_sub | counterfactual histories and future possibilities |
| topic | Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg (DE-588)106969780X gnd Kontrafaktisches Denken (DE-588)4577003-7 gnd Vorgeschichte (DE-588)4138921-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg Kontrafaktisches Denken Vorgeschichte |
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