Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking: Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise
The first comparative study of estimative intelligence and strategic surprise in a European context, complementing and testing insights from previous studies centred on the United StatesExtensive empirical analysis of open-source material and interviews in relation to three cases of major surprise:...
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| Weitere Verfasser: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Edinburgh
Edinburgh University Press
[2023]
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| Schriftenreihe: | Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare : ISSW
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | DE-12 DE-Aug4 DE-473 DE-19 DE-706 Volltext Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | The first comparative study of estimative intelligence and strategic surprise in a European context, complementing and testing insights from previous studies centred on the United StatesExtensive empirical analysis of open-source material and interviews in relation to three cases of major surprise: Arab uprisings, ISIS' rise to power in Syria and Iraq, and the Russian annexation of CrimeaNew theoretical insights into the causes of surprises and performance problems going beyond the debate about intelligence versus policy failures with contributions from former senior officials from the UK, Germany and the EU Identifies main causes of surprise among intelligence analysts and external experts challenging previous findings and accounts This book provides the first assessment of the performance of three leading European polities in providing estimative intelligence during an era of surprise. It develops a new framework for conducting postmortems guided by a normative model of anticipatory foreign policy. The comparative analysis focuses on how the UK, the EU and Germany handled three cases of major surprises: the Arab uprisings, the rise to power of the Islamic State (ISIS), and the Russian annexation of Crimea. It considers not just government intelligence assessments, but also diplomatic reporting and expert open sources and how these assessments were received by organisational leaders. The book tests and develops new theories about the causes of strategic surprises, going beyond a common focus on intelligence versus policy failures to identify challenges and factors that cut across both communities. With the help of former senior officials, the book identifies lessons yet to be learnt by European polities to better anticipate and prepare for future surprises |
| Beschreibung: | Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (publisher's Web site, viewed 28. Feb 2023) |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (256 Seiten) |
| ISBN: | 9781399505536 |
| DOI: | 10.1515/9781399505536 |
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| spelling | Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise ed. by Christoph Meyer Edinburgh Edinburgh University Press [2023] © 2022 1 Online-Ressource (256 Seiten) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare : ISSW Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (publisher's Web site, viewed 28. Feb 2023) The first comparative study of estimative intelligence and strategic surprise in a European context, complementing and testing insights from previous studies centred on the United StatesExtensive empirical analysis of open-source material and interviews in relation to three cases of major surprise: Arab uprisings, ISIS' rise to power in Syria and Iraq, and the Russian annexation of CrimeaNew theoretical insights into the causes of surprises and performance problems going beyond the debate about intelligence versus policy failures with contributions from former senior officials from the UK, Germany and the EU Identifies main causes of surprise among intelligence analysts and external experts challenging previous findings and accounts This book provides the first assessment of the performance of three leading European polities in providing estimative intelligence during an era of surprise. It develops a new framework for conducting postmortems guided by a normative model of anticipatory foreign policy. The comparative analysis focuses on how the UK, the EU and Germany handled three cases of major surprises: the Arab uprisings, the rise to power of the Islamic State (ISIS), and the Russian annexation of Crimea. It considers not just government intelligence assessments, but also diplomatic reporting and expert open sources and how these assessments were received by organisational leaders. The book tests and develops new theories about the causes of strategic surprises, going beyond a common focus on intelligence versus policy failures to identify challenges and factors that cut across both communities. With the help of former senior officials, the book identifies lessons yet to be learnt by European polities to better anticipate and prepare for future surprises In English Politics POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General bisacsh Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd rswk-swf Spionage (DE-588)4056287-6 gnd rswk-swf Geheimdienst (DE-588)4019737-2 gnd rswk-swf Europa (DE-588)4015701-5 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Europa (DE-588)4015701-5 g Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 s Geheimdienst (DE-588)4019737-2 s Spionage (DE-588)4056287-6 s DE-604 Meyer, Christoph O. 1973- (DE-588)123959365 edt Goodman, Michael S. ca. 20./21. Jh. (DE-588)1186738340 edt Guttmann, Aviva (DE-588)1147393494 edt Ikani, Nikki (DE-588)1223052818 edt Michaels, Eva (DE-588)1153209500 edt Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe 978-1-399-50551-2 https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/9781399505536/type/BOOK Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext https://doi.org/10.1515/9781399505536 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise Politics POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General bisacsh Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd Spionage (DE-588)4056287-6 gnd Geheimdienst (DE-588)4019737-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4003846-4 (DE-588)4056287-6 (DE-588)4019737-2 (DE-588)4015701-5 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise |
| title_auth | Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise |
| title_exact_search | Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise |
| title_full | Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise ed. by Christoph Meyer |
| title_fullStr | Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise ed. by Christoph Meyer |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise ed. by Christoph Meyer |
| title_short | Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking |
| title_sort | estimative intelligence in european foreign policymaking learning lessons from an era of surprise |
| title_sub | Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise |
| topic | Politics POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General bisacsh Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd Spionage (DE-588)4056287-6 gnd Geheimdienst (DE-588)4019737-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Politics POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General Außenpolitik Spionage Geheimdienst Europa Aufsatzsammlung |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/9781399505536/type/BOOK https://doi.org/10.1515/9781399505536 |
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