How can independent fiscal institutions make the most of assessing past economic forecasts?:
Forecasts of economic variables like GDP, inflation and unemployment are the starting points for budget planning. Most OECD countries have designated an independent fiscal institutions to scrutinise or endorse the economic forecasts prepared by finance ministries. Although external assessments of pa...
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| Format: | Elektronisch Artikel |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2022
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | DE-384 DE-91 DE-473 DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 DE-355 DE-20 DE-1028 DE-1049 DE-521 DE-861 DE-898 DE-92 DE-573 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Forecasts of economic variables like GDP, inflation and unemployment are the starting points for budget planning. Most OECD countries have designated an independent fiscal institutions to scrutinise or endorse the economic forecasts prepared by finance ministries. Although external assessments of past forecast errors can help uncover systematic bias or underperformance in official forecasts, there are several conceptual and practical problems with doing so that limit their usefulness. This paper describes the limitations of ex post forecast assessments and offers some suggestions on how independent fiscal institutions can add the most value in providing them |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (10 Seiten) |
| DOI: | 10.1787/5aa7765a-en |
Internformat
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| spelling | Cameron, Scott Verfasser aut How can independent fiscal institutions make the most of assessing past economic forecasts? Scott, Cameron Paris OECD Publishing 2022 1 Online-Ressource (10 Seiten) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Forecasts of economic variables like GDP, inflation and unemployment are the starting points for budget planning. Most OECD countries have designated an independent fiscal institutions to scrutinise or endorse the economic forecasts prepared by finance ministries. Although external assessments of past forecast errors can help uncover systematic bias or underperformance in official forecasts, there are several conceptual and practical problems with doing so that limit their usefulness. This paper describes the limitations of ex post forecast assessments and offers some suggestions on how independent fiscal institutions can add the most value in providing them Economics Finance and Investment Governance volume:22 number:2 year:2022 OECD Journal on Budgeting 2022 Vol. 22, no. 2 https://doi.org/10.1787/5aa7765a-en Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Cameron, Scott How can independent fiscal institutions make the most of assessing past economic forecasts? Economics Finance and Investment Governance |
| title | How can independent fiscal institutions make the most of assessing past economic forecasts? |
| title_auth | How can independent fiscal institutions make the most of assessing past economic forecasts? |
| title_exact_search | How can independent fiscal institutions make the most of assessing past economic forecasts? |
| title_exact_search_txtP | How can independent fiscal institutions make the most of assessing past economic forecasts? |
| title_full | How can independent fiscal institutions make the most of assessing past economic forecasts? Scott, Cameron |
| title_fullStr | How can independent fiscal institutions make the most of assessing past economic forecasts? Scott, Cameron |
| title_full_unstemmed | How can independent fiscal institutions make the most of assessing past economic forecasts? Scott, Cameron |
| title_short | How can independent fiscal institutions make the most of assessing past economic forecasts? |
| title_sort | how can independent fiscal institutions make the most of assessing past economic forecasts |
| topic | Economics Finance and Investment Governance |
| topic_facet | Economics Finance and Investment Governance |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/5aa7765a-en |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cameronscott howcanindependentfiscalinstitutionsmakethemostofassessingpasteconomicforecasts |