Ukraine's unnamed war: before the Russian invasion of 2022
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| Sprache: | English |
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| Beschreibung: | xi, 273 Seiten Diagramme, Karten |
| ISBN: | 9781316511497 9781009055949 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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Contents List of Figures page vi List of Maps vii List of Tables viii Acknowledgments ix 1 A War Within the “Russian World” 2 A Theory of War Onset in Post-Soviet Eurasia 23 3 Before Maidan 46 4 Regime Change (Maidan) 67 5 Irredentist Annexation (Crimea) 100 6 “The Russian Spring” (Eastern Ukraine) 121 7 The War and Russian Intervention (Donbas) 145 8 A Frozen Conflict Thaws 171 1 Appendix A: Formalizing a Story of Strategic Ukrainian Adaptation 198 Appendix B: Formalizing a Story of Why Putin Chose War 211 References 214 Index 264 v
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Index academic language choice, policy implications of, 16-21 aerial bombing, in Donbas conflict, 8 affirmative action, 51 Aidar battalion, 153—4,186 Akhmetov, Rinat, 82,139, 160-1 Aksyonov, Sergei, 102, 108, 113,114, 148 people’s militia organized by, 103-4 as prime minister, 110-13 Amnesty International, 7 analytic narrative, 35-47, 194 formalization of, 198-213 generation process, 36 payoffs in, 204-6 on Russian Spring, 141 structure of, 39 uses for, 36 zero-sum bargaining and, 57-8 analytics, 46 anti-aerial weapons, 164-5 Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO), 43-4, 67, 88,147-155 defining, 151 Yanukovych launching, 151 Association Agreements, 67, 69, 95 ATO. See Anti-Terrorist Operation Austrian Empire, 51 Avakov, Arsen, 152 awe, the state and, 28-9, 32 Azarov, Mykola, 83 Azov Battalion, 76,153—4, 159, 168-9,185-7 Babchenko, Arkadii, 86 Balcells, Laia, 8 Balch-Lindsay, Dylan, 6-7 Bandera, Stepan, 74-5 Bativshchyna party, 79 264 Battle of Debaltseve, 15,175,183 Battle of Ilovaisk, 15,171 beached diaspora, 25 Bednov, Aleksandr, 144 Belarus, 68-9 Belaventsev, Oleg, 101,102, 107 Benjamin, Walter, 76-7 Berezovsky, Denis, 114 Berkut (riot police), 71, 105 in Maidan protests, 86, 89-92 in Russian intervention in Crimea, 108 Bezler, Igor, 159-60 Biddle, Stephen, 8 Black Sea Fleet, 42, 48-9, 57, 95,104, 111, 118,119 Bloody Thursday, 89 bluffing, 33,145 Bobrov, Yevgeny։, 117 Bolotov, Valerii, 155 Bolshevik Revolution, 9, 55,156 Borodai, Aleksandr, 161 Bratstvo, 74 Brokered Autonomy, 45, 204, 207-9 Brubaker, Rogers, 26, 40 Bucharest Summit, 13, 55 Budapest Memorandum, 12 calling, 33,
145,170 cease-fire, 192,194 in Donbas conflict, 175-7 Cederman, Lars-Erik, 34-5 census Imperial, 2-3 Ukrainian, 2-3 Chali v, Aleksei, 103 Chaliv, Mikhail, 127 cheap talk, 20 Chenoweth, Erica, 24 Chornomorska, 117
Index Chornovol, Tetiana, 79 Chubarov, Refat, 108 Churkin, Vitaliy, 113-14 CIS. See Commonwealth of Independent States civil war concept of, 6-10 defining, 6, 8-9, 23 Donbas conflict as, 6-10 ethnic discrimination and, 34-5 interstate war contrasted with, 6-7 language of, 20 rarity of, 24 resolution of, 24 civilian death, in Donbas conflict, 7-8 civilian victimization, 8 military strategies leading to, 35 Cold War, United States in, 15-16 common destiny, 56-7 Russian and Ukrainian narratives on, 53 Common Economic Space, 68-9 common knowledge equilibrium and, 28 political crises undercutting, 29-30 Communist Party, 40-1 community, defining, 19 compromise, of elites, 32-3 conflict resolution. See settlement Constitution of Crimea of 1992, 116-17 Constitutional Court, 69, 83 coordinated neutrality, 207-8 coordinated sedition, 40, 42, 43, 132, 133,199, 207-8 of Russian-speakers, 27 costly signaling, 20 Crimea, 40-5,134,187 autonomous status of, 58-61, 110-11 elites in, 102 exit threats of, 59 gifting of, 48-9 history of, 58-61 Party of Regions in, 101, 114-16 Pravyi sektor in, 104-5 Putin on, 96,105-6,117 reunification, 116 Russia valuing, 100 self-rule of, 110-11 265 Crimea, Russian intervention, 1, 31-2, 35-6, 42 Berkut in, 108 elites in, 43 final cascade in, 114-18 initial Russian signals towards, 101-4 Party of Regions in, 43, 42 Putin and, 112 Russian signals in, 111-14 self-defense groups in, 109 television propaganda in, 104-6 unannounced parliamentary session in, 110 Crimean Khanate, 47-8 Crimean Tatars, 42, 58-9,107-9 deportation of, 59 cross-border attacks, 166
Cunningham, David E., 6-7 Davenport, Christian, 34-5 Davydchenko, Anton, 131 DCTFÀ. See Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area De Figueiredo, Rui, 33 Debaltseve. See Battle of Debaltseve decentralization, 163 Declaration of State Sovereignty, 59 decommunization laws, 190 Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), 67 defections, 115 democracy movements, 88 de-radicalization, 76 dictatorship laws, 78, 82-3 Dnipro battalion, 153-4 Dnipropetrovsk, 62-3,137 DNR. See Donetsk People’s Republic Dobkin, Mykhailo, 124-5 Domestic Police Action, 204 Donbas, 4 authority collapsing in, 146-7 autonomy of, 62-3 border control, 182 elites, 64-5 general strike in, 62 history of, 61-4 industrial sector of, 61-2 in Russian Spring, 138 Donbas battalion, 153-4,186
266 Donbas conflict, 1-2 aerial bombing in, 8 causes of, 2 cease-fire in, 175 as civil war, 6-10 civilian death in, 7-8 deaths in, 166-9,177,179 escalation of, 156-60 first diplomatic intervention, 155-60 freezing, 167-9 as full-scale war, 192-7 geopolitical recap, 172-4 hegemonic view on, 17-18 as humanitarian intervention, 178-81 impact of, 184-7 international negotiations freezing, 181-3 international negotiations stalling, 174-8 internationalized war, 164-7 narratives about, 10-11 new equilibrium following, 187-92 NGOs in, 7 Putin on, 196-7 resolutions to, 5 Russian narrative on, 178-81 Russian role in, 3-5, 38-40,145-7 Russian Spring and, 141 sanctions related to, 173 thawing conflict in, 171-2 Western policy and escalation of, 18 Donetsk, 2-3, 5, 8-9, 65-6,166,175 Party of Regions in, 128, 187 in Russian Spring, 128, 139-40 the street activity in, 127-8 Donetsk Council, 44-5,130 Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), 44, 161, 172-3 data from, 180-1 industrial plant nationalization in, 184 public opinion in, 184-5 recognition of, 172-3, 196 Russian language in, 184-5 standard of living in, 184 Dragojević, Mila, 37 druzhina, 103 Eastern Partnership, 68 Eastern Ukraine Index Party of Regions supported by, 40-1 political identity in, 36-7 on post-Maidan regime legitimacy, 122 Russian-speakers in, 36-7 economic sanctions, 165 EEU. See Eurasian Economic Union elites, 28 compromise of, 32-3 conflict avoidance by, 164 Crimean, 102 crises provoked by, 40-1 Donbas, 64-5 emergence of, from the street, 146 neutrality of, 41-2 in Party of Regions, 119 in post-Soviet Eurasia, 28-9 in
Russian intervention in Crimea, 43 Russian-speaking, 31, 58,144 sedition coordination, 29-30 sedition of, 133 the street outflanking, 129, 132-3 types of, 30-1 Elster, Jon, 33, 34 emotions causal role of, 33 information processing and, 33-4 Enforced Assimilation, 45, 204-210 Enterline, Andrew J., 6-7 equilibrium, 23, 28 common knowledge and, 28 ethnic discrimination, civil war and, 34-5 ethnic groups defensive mobilization spirals in, 34 in Ukraine, 49 ethnic minorities, in Ukraine, 38 Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), 13-14, 68, 70, 212-13 Yanukovych government on, 69-70 Euromaidan Organizing Committee, 71 far right, 75 fascism, 43, 54-5, 76-7, 98,142-3 nationalism and, 141-2 Fatherland Day, 103 fear, 34 Fearon, James D., 34
267 Index federalization, 125-6,132,135-6,143 First Gulf War, 12 flag, Ukrainian, 56 football ultras, 76 foreign policy independent, 12 multi-vector, 12 fragmentation, 202 Free Trade Zone Agreement, 68-9 Frolov, Kirill, 134 frozen conflicts, 45 Galeotti, Mark, 14 Galicia, 48, 51, 52, 87 games, modeling, 198-204 Gelbach, 200 general strike, Donbas, 62 genocide, 9-10, 54 Georgia, war in, 13 Gerasimov, Valery, 14 Girkin, Igor (Strelkov), 4,149,154-8, 167,172 in Donetsk, 139-40 “GRU Slaviansk,” 149 Malofeev and, 148,150,161 military history of, 148 Moscow and, 4, 174 plan of, 150 private correspondence of, 165-6 troops in Sloviansk, 165-6 Glazyev, Sergei, 70-1,134 Glazyev Tapes, 134 Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, 6-7 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 59 Grach, Leonid, 102 Gramsci, Antonio, 15 GRU. See Russian military intelligence Gubarev, Pavel, 127-30 Hauter, Jakob, 4 herd behaviors, 44 Hirschman, Albert O., 25 Hobbes, Thomas, on the state, 23 Holodomor, 53, 54,190 Yanukovych on, 54 van Houten, Pieter van, 40 Human Rights in Ukraine, 7 Huntington, Samuel, 23 hybrid warfare, 13-14 defining, 11, 14-15 goals of, 14-15 language of, 16-18 as policy alternative, 11-16 Russia and, 14 ideal points, 211 identity politics. See political identities ideological hegemony, 31 IDPs. See Internally Displaced Persons Ilovaisk. See Battle of Ilovaisk IMF. See International Monetary Fund immigration, 25, 27-8 Independence Square. See Maidan nezaleshnosti indigenous peoples, of Ukraine, 59-60 information processing, emotions and, 33-4 informational cascades, 44 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), 177
international armed conflicts, 7 Internationalized Armed Conflict, 204-5 inter-state dimension, 25-6 interstate war, civil war contrasted with, 6-7 intra-state bargaining, 25-6 Ivashko, Volodymyr, 62 Jenne, Erin, 198 Joyce, Kyle A., 6-7 Kalvyas, Stathis, 8 Kazakhstan, 68-9 Kharkiv, 62 in Russian Spring, 124-5,135, 137-8,140-1,143-4 Kharkiv Congress, 43 Khodakovskyi, Aleksandr, 154-5 Kivelson, Valerie A., 15-16 Klitschko, Vitali, 74-5, 79 Kolomoyskyi, Ilhor, 137 Konstantinov, Vladimir, 101-2,105-7 Kosovo, independence of, 13 Kravchuk, Leonid, 51, 52, 62, 63, 65 Kuchma, Leonid, 1, 52, 62-3, 72 Kudelia, Serhiy, 150-1 Kulyk, Volodymyr, 187 Kupchan, Charles A., 57 Kuran, Timur, 199, 200
268 Laitin, David D., 25, 208-9 Landyk, Valentyn, 62 language law, 45,191 repeal of, 33-4 2019, 191-2 language politic, 53 Lavrov, Sergey, 88 Lebed, Alexander, 11-12 Lee, Melissa Μ., 6-7 Lenin, Vladimir, statues of, 127 Levi, Margaret, 36 liberalism, defining, 75 Little Green Men, 3, 4, 109,135, 147-8 in Russian intervention in Crimea, 106-11 Little Russian, 49-51. See also Ukrainian language LNR. See Luhansk People’s Republic loyalty, 25 Luhansk, 2-3, 5, 8-9, 166,175 in Russian Spring, 131-2, 139-40 Luhansk Council, 44-5, 208 Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), 44, 172-3 data from, 180-1 industrial plant nationalization in, 184 public opinion in, 184-5 recognition of, 196 Russian language in, 184—5 standard of living in, 184 Lukyanchenko, Oleksandr, 130 Lustick, Ian, 31 Lutsenko, Yuri, 86 Maidan massacre, 89-90 Maidan nezaleshnosti (Independence Square), 67-8 Maidan protests, 1, 2, 41 Berkut in, 86, 89-92 contradictory accounts of, 73M counter-offensive in, 86 as coup, 10-11 deaths in, 85, 86, 89 dictatorship laws, 78 end of old regime following, 82-8 events triggering, 67-71 laws against, 78-9 martyrs at Sich, 77-80 Merkel on, 88 Index outside view of, 80-2 public polls on, 81 regime failure during, 90-5 as Revolution of Dignity, 11, 77, 98 self-defense groups in, 82, 84-6, 92-3 spread of violence from, 87 US State Department on, 80, 91 victims in, 90 violence in, 2,10, 71-6, 82-3, 99 Yanukovych on, 72-3, 86, 88 malochislennye narody (smallnumbered peoples), 58 Malofeev, Konstantin, 148-50, 160-1 Malomuzh, Mykola, 106 Mariupol, 159,168,175 market behaviors, 36 master
narratives. See Russian narrative; Ukrainian narrative; Western narrative Matanock, Aila Μ., 193 Matsuzato, Kimitaka, 130-1 McFaul, Michael, 13,187 Mearsheimer, John, 12 Melander, Erik, 34-5 Memorial, 7 memory politics, 46, 53 Merkel, Angela, 70 on Maidan protests, 88 Meshkov, Yuri, 60 metallurgy, 69 military intelligence, 6-7. See also Russian military intelligence Min, Brian, 34-5 Minsk Agreement, 5, 35, 174,186, 188-9,192 contentious points in, 181-2 elections and, 182-3 end of, 196 as humanitarian success, 178-9 signing of, 176, 192-3 Minsk II, 175-7, 182 Minsk Protocol, 174-5 Mohyliov, Anatoliy, 101-2,105-6 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, 48 Monroe Doctrine, 13 Mosiychuk, Ihor, 104-5 Mozgovoi, Aleksei, 144 multi-vector foreign policy, 12 Mykolaiv, 137 Mylovanov, Tymofiy, 28
Index Nalyvaichenko, Valentyn, 111-12 Narodna Rada, 81 narratives, 10-11 National Resistance Headquarters, 84 National Security and Defense Council, 111-12 national unity government, 97 nationalism, 20-1 fascism and, 141-2 of Putin, 156 Russian, 143,156 Russian-speakers and, 37 Ukrainian, 48, 51,141,194-5 nationality, 58 language and, 36-7,49-50 NATO. See North Atlantic Treaty Organization nature, 202-4 Nayyem, Mustafa, 67-8 Nazis, 76,124-5,190 neutrality, 122, 132, 146 coordinated, 207-8 of elites, 41-2 sedition v., 137,140,172, 199-202 neutrals, 41-2 NGOs. See nongovernmental organizations nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), 78 in Donbas conflict, 7 non-international armed conflicts, 7 non-violent tactics, 24 norms, 44 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 13, 55,118,151-2, 173,190,195 expansion of, 13 Putin on, 118 Russia on, 56-7 Ukraine joining, 15, 56-7, 195-6 Novorossiya, 43, 47-8,144,156 Putin on, 141 nuclear disarmament, 12 Oblrada, 130, 130 ODA. See regional administration building Odesa, 43, 141 fire, 158-9 269 in Russian Spring, 131,140-1,143-4 street pressure in, 131 Odesskaia Druzhina, 134,140 ODIHR. See OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), 179 oligarchs, 68-9, 139 Oplot, 136, 154-5 opolchenie, 128,129,148-9 Opposition Bloc, 191-2 Orange Revolution, 13-14, 64-8, 71, 75-6, 83-4,125 Orenstein, Mitchell A., 14 organization, 25 Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), 155 Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN), 48, 53-5, 76 OSCE. See
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Ottoman Empire, 47-8 OUN. See Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists Parasiuk, Volodymy, 92 Party of Regions, 17-18, 25, 52, 78, 84-6, 93-5,108-9,119,121-2, 126 center-periphery bargaining and, 64 in Crimea, 101,114-16 disintegration of, 32, 33, 41, 90-1 in Donetsk, 128,187 Eastern Ukrainian support for, 40-1 elites in, 119 failed resuscitation of, 124-7 formation of, 63 growth of, 63 legitimacy of, 74 in Russian intervention in Crimea, 43, 42 on Russian language, 52-3 as Russian party, 40-1 Russian-speakers represented by, 45 sedition of, 123 on Yanukovych, 95 Yanukovych denounced by, 126-7
270 Parubiy, Andiy, 79, 92-3,139 Patriot Ukrainy, 74, 76, 136 Patrushev, Nikolai, 101-2 payoffs, 204-6 peace studies, 34-5 Petersen, Roger, 33 on resentment, 34 Platonova, Daria, 130-1 Plotnitskiy, Igor, 155, 174 Poland, 47 Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, 47 political identities complexity of, 37 of Eastern Ukrainians, 36-7 of Russians, 25 of Ukrainians, 19-20 Political identities, of Russianspeakers, 25 Poltava, 87 Popovic, Milos, 6-7 populist right, 75 Poroshenko, Petro, 73-4, 160-3, 167, 188-9 election of, 162-3 Putin and, 174-5 Posen, Barry R., 12,18, 34 post-Soviet Eurasia actors in, 26-30 choices in, 26-30 elites in, 28-9 order of play in, 26-30 strategic setting in, 24-6 theory of war in, 23-4 triadic relationship in, 26-7 Pravyi sektor, 79-80, 82,155,157, 185-7 in Crimea, 104-5 emergence of, 74-5 flags, 108 football ultras in, 76 militant operations of, 157 violence of, 79, 81, 85-6 volunteer battalions, 153—4 presidential elections, 2010, 65-6, 83 Procuracy, 85 propaganda. See television propaganda proxy warfare, 6-7 Putin, Vladimir, 1, 3, 55, 95-9, 185, 189, 196 conflict escalated by, 20-1 Index on Crimea, 96, 105-6, 117 on Donbas conflict, 196-7 formalizing war choice of, 211-13 nationalism of, 156 on NATO, 118 on Novorossiya, 141 Poroshenko and, 174-5 Russian Crimean intervention and, 112 on Ukrainian nationalism, 194-5 Yanukovych and, 70, 98,113-14 radical right, 76-7, 80-1 defining, 75 radicalism, 75 radicalization, 75-6 violence and, 75-6 Reagan, Patrick Μ., 34-5 Red Cross, 7 regime change, 31-2, 67 regional administration buildings (ODA), 127,129-30,140
attacks on, 128-9 religion, 190-1 repression, 137-8, 206-7 in state capacity theory, 23-5 resentment, 34 defining, 34 Peterson on, 34 Revolution of Dignity, 11, 77, 98 Rodnoi yazyk, 49-50 Rostov Oblast, 158-9,166 RSFSR. See Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic Rukh, 56 rule of law, 75 Russia. See also Crimea, Russian intervention in; Soviet Union; specific topics in Donbas conflict, 3-5, 38-40,145-7 hybrid warfare and, 14 on NATO, 56-7 soft power of, 15-16 United States and, 13 Western relations with, 13 Russian Bloc. See Russkii blok Russian language, 185 in DNR/LNR, 184-5 Party of Regions on, 52-3 Russian military intelligence (GRU), 6, 134, 147-50
Index Russian narrative, 46, 55 on common destiny, 53 on Donbas conflict, 178-81 history according to, 47-51 on Soviet Union, 53-4 updating, 96 Western narrative contrasted with, 97-9 Russian nationalism, 143, 156 Russian Presidential Human Rights Council, 117 Russian Spring, 3, 43,121-4 as aborted war, 135-43 analytic narrative on, 141 coordination in, 133-5 Donbas conflict and, 141 Donbas in, 138 Donetsk in, 128,139-40 institutional void and, 127-33 Kharkiv in, 124-5,135,137-8, 140-1,143-4 Luhansk in, 131-2, 139-40 Odesa in, 131,140-1,143-4 self-defense groups in, 142-3 Russian Unity party, 102-4 Russian World. See Russkii mir Russian-speakers, 9-10,19-20, 208 advocates for, 188-9 coordinated sedition of, 27 defining, 10, 51 in Eastern Ukraine, 36-7 elites, 31, 58, 144 nationalism and, 37 Party of Regions representing, 45 political identities of, 25 rights of, 28 secession threat of, 145 sedition of, 43, 144 Russkii blok (Russian Bloc), 60 Russkii mir (Russian World), 9-10, 21,43, 66,185-7 defining, 9 Ruzhelnyk, Olga, 74 Salehyan, Idean, 6-7 Sarotte, Mary Elise, 12 SBU. See Security Service of Ukraine Scharpf, Fritz, 36 Schelling, Thomas, 211 Scherbytskyi, Volodymyr, 62 271 secession, 38, 64, 101-2, 206 Russian-speakers threat of, 145 security, defining, 36 Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), 134, 139 sedition, 19, 41-2, 44—5,132-3, 136-7, 200-2, 207. See also coordinated sedition of elites, 133 elites coordinating on, 29-30 neutrality v., 137,140,172, 199-202 of Party of Regions, 123 process-based mechanisms of coordination on, 44 of Russian-speakers, 43,144
transformation of, 28 self-defense groups, 77,103-5,108, 116, 131,152-3 in Maidan protests, 82, 84-6, 92-3 in Russian intervention in Crimea, 109 in Russian Spring, 142-3 self-identification, 59 self-removal, 95 separation, 101-2 Serbia, NATO in, 13 Sevastopol, 42, 48-9, 111 rally at, 103-4 Severodonetsk, 64 Shevchenko, Taras, 48 Shifrinson, Itzkowitz, 12 Shoigu, Sergei, 101 Sikorski, Radosław, 91-2 Skoryk, Mykola, 131 Sloviansk, 4,156-8,166 Girkin and, 150-1 military commandos in, 147-52, 156-9, 164-5 social activism, 88 social media, 180 soft power, of Russia, 15-16 Solzhenitsyn, Alexander, 51 Soros, George, 148 South-Eastern Autonomous Republic, 64 Soviet Union dissolution of, 11-12, 24-5 Russian narrative on, 53-4 secret police, 54
Index 272 spetsnaz, 147-50 Srebrenica, 183 Stalin, Joseph, 53 the state awe and, 28-9, 32 breakdown of, 24-5 citizen assessment of, 24 coercive capacity of, 29-30 Hobbes on, 23 inter-state dimension, 25-6 intra-state bargaining, 25-6 temporary weaknesses of, 38 state capacity theory, 28-9 defining, 25-6 repression in, 23-5, 28 Steinmeier, Frank-Walter, 192-3 Steinmeier Formula, 193 Stephan, Maria J., 24 the street, 145 aborted war in, 135-43 activity of, in Donetsk, 127-8 defining, 121-2 elite outflanked by, 129,132-3 elites emerging from, 146 pressure from, in Odesa, 131 Strelkov. See Girkin, Igor subgame perfect Nash equilibrium (SPNE), 206 Suny, Ronald Grigor, 15-16 Surkov, Vladislav, 160-1 Svoboda, 77-8, 79 Taylor, Michael, 19 technology, warfare and, 14 television propaganda, 101 in Russian intervention in Crimea, 104-6 Tenyukh, Ihor, 111-12 terrorism, 151-2, 155, 182-3 titushki, 77, 79, 82, 84-5, 87, 105-6 Titushko, Vadym, 79 trade deal, 67-71, 212-13 Trade Union Building, 83 Treisman, Daniel S., 118 triadic model, 25, 26 in post-Soviet Eurasia, 26-7 Trump, Donald, 16-17 Tryzub, 74 Turchynov, Oleksandr, 93-6 Tyahnybok, Oleh, 74-5 Tymoshenko, Yulia, 51, 69, 70, 95 Tyndiuk, Mykola, 131 Udar, 79 Ukraine. See also specific topics Crimean exit threats, 59 ethnic groups in, 49 ethnic minorities in, 38 geography of, 11 history of, 47-51 indigenous peoples of, 59-60 national identity, 3 NATO joined by, 15, 195-6 political identity of, 19-20 reunification, 47-9 war initiation in, 30-5 Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, 70-1 Yanukovych on, 68-9, 71 Ukrainian Communist Party, 56
Ukrainian constitution 1996, 83-4 2004, 83^4 Ukrainian language, 51-2, 56. See also language law banning of, 51 recognition of, 50 as state language, 52 Ukrainian narrative, 46, 51-2 on common destiny, 53 updating, 96 Ukrainian nationalism, 48, 51,141 Putin on, 194-5 Ukrainian Orthodox Church, 17, 49, 190-1 Ukrainian Supreme Court, 64-5 Ukrainian-speakers, defining, 51 UN Security Council, 12 underground army (UPA), 48 United States in Cold War, 15-16 Russia and, 13 unmarked soldiers, 101 UNR. See Ukrainian People’s Republic UPA. See underground army US State Department, on Maidan protests, 80, 91 Van Evera, Steve, 40 Venice Commission, 117-18
273 Index vigilantism, 43 Vilnius Summit, 67-8, 71 violence, 72 disapproval of, 72 legitimization of, 80 in Maidan protests, 2,10, 71-6, 82-3, 99 of Pravyi sektor, 79, 81, 85-6 radicalization and, 75-6 Western narrative on, 99 Volodymyr (prince), 48-9 Voitovych, Nazarii, 90 volunteer battalions, 153 Pravyi sektor, 153-4 Vostok, 154-5 war initiation, in Ukraine, 30-5 war of position, 15 Web 2.0,14 Weber, Max, 23 Weingast, Barry R., 33 Western narrative diplomats espousing, 41-2 Russian narrative contrasted with, 97-9 on violence, 99 Western Ukraine, 41, 53 on post-Maidan regime legitimacy, 122 Wimmer, Andreas, 34-5 Wolfsagen symbol, 76 World War I, 8, 48 World War II, 190 Yanukovych, Viktor, 1,13-14, 72, 83, 91-2,103 ATO of, 151 decision to flee, 31-2, 41, 97, 98, 126 disintegration of support for, 93 on EEU, 69-70 election of, 54, 57 electoral loss of, 64-5 on Holodomor, 54 on Maidan protests, 72-3, 86, 88 Party of Regions denouncing, 126-7 Party of Regions on, 95 Putin and, 70, 98, 113-14 removal of, 33, 93, 95, 96 trial of, 113 on Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, 68-9, 71 Yarema, Vitaliy, 139 Yarosh, Dmytro, 79,157 Yatseniuk, Arseniy, 74-5, 79, 80, 111-12 Yeltsin, Boris, 59 Yushchenko, Viktor, 1, 51, 56-7, 64-6,189 Zakharchenko, Aleksandr, 72-3, 154-5, 167-8,174 Zakharchenko, Vitaliy, 92-5 Zamana, Volodymyr, 88 Zarya, 154-5 Zelensky, Volodymyr, 188, 193, 195-6 zero-sum bargaining, 51-7, 211 analytic narrative and, 57-8 Zeveleva, Olga, 106 Zviahils’kyi, Yefym, 62 Zyuganov, Gennady, 11-12 Bayerisch« Staatsbibliothek München |
| adam_txt |
Contents List of Figures page vi List of Maps vii List of Tables viii Acknowledgments ix 1 A War Within the “Russian World” 2 A Theory of War Onset in Post-Soviet Eurasia 23 3 Before Maidan 46 4 Regime Change (Maidan) 67 5 Irredentist Annexation (Crimea) 100 6 “The Russian Spring” (Eastern Ukraine) 121 7 The War and Russian Intervention (Donbas) 145 8 A Frozen Conflict Thaws 171 1 Appendix A: Formalizing a Story of Strategic Ukrainian Adaptation 198 Appendix B: Formalizing a Story of Why Putin Chose War 211 References 214 Index 264 v
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Index academic language choice, policy implications of, 16-21 aerial bombing, in Donbas conflict, 8 affirmative action, 51 Aidar battalion, 153—4,186 Akhmetov, Rinat, 82,139, 160-1 Aksyonov, Sergei, 102, 108, 113,114, 148 people’s militia organized by, 103-4 as prime minister, 110-13 Amnesty International, 7 analytic narrative, 35-47, 194 formalization of, 198-213 generation process, 36 payoffs in, 204-6 on Russian Spring, 141 structure of, 39 uses for, 36 zero-sum bargaining and, 57-8 analytics, 46 anti-aerial weapons, 164-5 Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO), 43-4, 67, 88,147-155 defining, 151 Yanukovych launching, 151 Association Agreements, 67, 69, 95 ATO. See Anti-Terrorist Operation Austrian Empire, 51 Avakov, Arsen, 152 awe, the state and, 28-9, 32 Azarov, Mykola, 83 Azov Battalion, 76,153—4, 159, 168-9,185-7 Babchenko, Arkadii, 86 Balcells, Laia, 8 Balch-Lindsay, Dylan, 6-7 Bandera, Stepan, 74-5 Bativshchyna party, 79 264 Battle of Debaltseve, 15,175,183 Battle of Ilovaisk, 15,171 beached diaspora, 25 Bednov, Aleksandr, 144 Belarus, 68-9 Belaventsev, Oleg, 101,102, 107 Benjamin, Walter, 76-7 Berezovsky, Denis, 114 Berkut (riot police), 71, 105 in Maidan protests, 86, 89-92 in Russian intervention in Crimea, 108 Bezler, Igor, 159-60 Biddle, Stephen, 8 Black Sea Fleet, 42, 48-9, 57, 95,104, 111, 118,119 Bloody Thursday, 89 bluffing, 33,145 Bobrov, Yevgeny։, 117 Bolotov, Valerii, 155 Bolshevik Revolution, 9, 55,156 Borodai, Aleksandr, 161 Bratstvo, 74 Brokered Autonomy, 45, 204, 207-9 Brubaker, Rogers, 26, 40 Bucharest Summit, 13, 55 Budapest Memorandum, 12 calling, 33,
145,170 cease-fire, 192,194 in Donbas conflict, 175-7 Cederman, Lars-Erik, 34-5 census Imperial, 2-3 Ukrainian, 2-3 Chali v, Aleksei, 103 Chaliv, Mikhail, 127 cheap talk, 20 Chenoweth, Erica, 24 Chornomorska, 117
Index Chornovol, Tetiana, 79 Chubarov, Refat, 108 Churkin, Vitaliy, 113-14 CIS. See Commonwealth of Independent States civil war concept of, 6-10 defining, 6, 8-9, 23 Donbas conflict as, 6-10 ethnic discrimination and, 34-5 interstate war contrasted with, 6-7 language of, 20 rarity of, 24 resolution of, 24 civilian death, in Donbas conflict, 7-8 civilian victimization, 8 military strategies leading to, 35 Cold War, United States in, 15-16 common destiny, 56-7 Russian and Ukrainian narratives on, 53 Common Economic Space, 68-9 common knowledge equilibrium and, 28 political crises undercutting, 29-30 Communist Party, 40-1 community, defining, 19 compromise, of elites, 32-3 conflict resolution. See settlement Constitution of Crimea of 1992, 116-17 Constitutional Court, 69, 83 coordinated neutrality, 207-8 coordinated sedition, 40, 42, 43, 132, 133,199, 207-8 of Russian-speakers, 27 costly signaling, 20 Crimea, 40-5,134,187 autonomous status of, 58-61, 110-11 elites in, 102 exit threats of, 59 gifting of, 48-9 history of, 58-61 Party of Regions in, 101, 114-16 Pravyi sektor in, 104-5 Putin on, 96,105-6,117 reunification, 116 Russia valuing, 100 self-rule of, 110-11 265 Crimea, Russian intervention, 1, 31-2, 35-6, 42 Berkut in, 108 elites in, 43 final cascade in, 114-18 initial Russian signals towards, 101-4 Party of Regions in, 43, 42 Putin and, 112 Russian signals in, 111-14 self-defense groups in, 109 television propaganda in, 104-6 unannounced parliamentary session in, 110 Crimean Khanate, 47-8 Crimean Tatars, 42, 58-9,107-9 deportation of, 59 cross-border attacks, 166
Cunningham, David E., 6-7 Davenport, Christian, 34-5 Davydchenko, Anton, 131 DCTFÀ. See Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area De Figueiredo, Rui, 33 Debaltseve. See Battle of Debaltseve decentralization, 163 Declaration of State Sovereignty, 59 decommunization laws, 190 Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), 67 defections, 115 democracy movements, 88 de-radicalization, 76 dictatorship laws, 78, 82-3 Dnipro battalion, 153-4 Dnipropetrovsk, 62-3,137 DNR. See Donetsk People’s Republic Dobkin, Mykhailo, 124-5 Domestic Police Action, 204 Donbas, 4 authority collapsing in, 146-7 autonomy of, 62-3 border control, 182 elites, 64-5 general strike in, 62 history of, 61-4 industrial sector of, 61-2 in Russian Spring, 138 Donbas battalion, 153-4,186
266 Donbas conflict, 1-2 aerial bombing in, 8 causes of, 2 cease-fire in, 175 as civil war, 6-10 civilian death in, 7-8 deaths in, 166-9,177,179 escalation of, 156-60 first diplomatic intervention, 155-60 freezing, 167-9 as full-scale war, 192-7 geopolitical recap, 172-4 hegemonic view on, 17-18 as humanitarian intervention, 178-81 impact of, 184-7 international negotiations freezing, 181-3 international negotiations stalling, 174-8 internationalized war, 164-7 narratives about, 10-11 new equilibrium following, 187-92 NGOs in, 7 Putin on, 196-7 resolutions to, 5 Russian narrative on, 178-81 Russian role in, 3-5, 38-40,145-7 Russian Spring and, 141 sanctions related to, 173 thawing conflict in, 171-2 Western policy and escalation of, 18 Donetsk, 2-3, 5, 8-9, 65-6,166,175 Party of Regions in, 128, 187 in Russian Spring, 128, 139-40 the street activity in, 127-8 Donetsk Council, 44-5,130 Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), 44, 161, 172-3 data from, 180-1 industrial plant nationalization in, 184 public opinion in, 184-5 recognition of, 172-3, 196 Russian language in, 184-5 standard of living in, 184 Dragojević, Mila, 37 druzhina, 103 Eastern Partnership, 68 Eastern Ukraine Index Party of Regions supported by, 40-1 political identity in, 36-7 on post-Maidan regime legitimacy, 122 Russian-speakers in, 36-7 economic sanctions, 165 EEU. See Eurasian Economic Union elites, 28 compromise of, 32-3 conflict avoidance by, 164 Crimean, 102 crises provoked by, 40-1 Donbas, 64-5 emergence of, from the street, 146 neutrality of, 41-2 in Party of Regions, 119 in post-Soviet Eurasia, 28-9 in
Russian intervention in Crimea, 43 Russian-speaking, 31, 58,144 sedition coordination, 29-30 sedition of, 133 the street outflanking, 129, 132-3 types of, 30-1 Elster, Jon, 33, 34 emotions causal role of, 33 information processing and, 33-4 Enforced Assimilation, 45, 204-210 Enterline, Andrew J., 6-7 equilibrium, 23, 28 common knowledge and, 28 ethnic discrimination, civil war and, 34-5 ethnic groups defensive mobilization spirals in, 34 in Ukraine, 49 ethnic minorities, in Ukraine, 38 Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), 13-14, 68, 70, 212-13 Yanukovych government on, 69-70 Euromaidan Organizing Committee, 71 far right, 75 fascism, 43, 54-5, 76-7, 98,142-3 nationalism and, 141-2 Fatherland Day, 103 fear, 34 Fearon, James D., 34
267 Index federalization, 125-6,132,135-6,143 First Gulf War, 12 flag, Ukrainian, 56 football ultras, 76 foreign policy independent, 12 multi-vector, 12 fragmentation, 202 Free Trade Zone Agreement, 68-9 Frolov, Kirill, 134 frozen conflicts, 45 Galeotti, Mark, 14 Galicia, 48, 51, 52, 87 games, modeling, 198-204 Gelbach, 200 general strike, Donbas, 62 genocide, 9-10, 54 Georgia, war in, 13 Gerasimov, Valery, 14 Girkin, Igor (Strelkov), 4,149,154-8, 167,172 in Donetsk, 139-40 “GRU Slaviansk,” 149 Malofeev and, 148,150,161 military history of, 148 Moscow and, 4, 174 plan of, 150 private correspondence of, 165-6 troops in Sloviansk, 165-6 Glazyev, Sergei, 70-1,134 Glazyev Tapes, 134 Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, 6-7 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 59 Grach, Leonid, 102 Gramsci, Antonio, 15 GRU. See Russian military intelligence Gubarev, Pavel, 127-30 Hauter, Jakob, 4 herd behaviors, 44 Hirschman, Albert O., 25 Hobbes, Thomas, on the state, 23 Holodomor, 53, 54,190 Yanukovych on, 54 van Houten, Pieter van, 40 Human Rights in Ukraine, 7 Huntington, Samuel, 23 hybrid warfare, 13-14 defining, 11, 14-15 goals of, 14-15 language of, 16-18 as policy alternative, 11-16 Russia and, 14 ideal points, 211 identity politics. See political identities ideological hegemony, 31 IDPs. See Internally Displaced Persons Ilovaisk. See Battle of Ilovaisk IMF. See International Monetary Fund immigration, 25, 27-8 Independence Square. See Maidan nezaleshnosti indigenous peoples, of Ukraine, 59-60 information processing, emotions and, 33-4 informational cascades, 44 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), 177
international armed conflicts, 7 Internationalized Armed Conflict, 204-5 inter-state dimension, 25-6 interstate war, civil war contrasted with, 6-7 intra-state bargaining, 25-6 Ivashko, Volodymyr, 62 Jenne, Erin, 198 Joyce, Kyle A., 6-7 Kalvyas, Stathis, 8 Kazakhstan, 68-9 Kharkiv, 62 in Russian Spring, 124-5,135, 137-8,140-1,143-4 Kharkiv Congress, 43 Khodakovskyi, Aleksandr, 154-5 Kivelson, Valerie A., 15-16 Klitschko, Vitali, 74-5, 79 Kolomoyskyi, Ilhor, 137 Konstantinov, Vladimir, 101-2,105-7 Kosovo, independence of, 13 Kravchuk, Leonid, 51, 52, 62, 63, 65 Kuchma, Leonid, 1, 52, 62-3, 72 Kudelia, Serhiy, 150-1 Kulyk, Volodymyr, 187 Kupchan, Charles A., 57 Kuran, Timur, 199, 200
268 Laitin, David D., 25, 208-9 Landyk, Valentyn, 62 language law, 45,191 repeal of, 33-4 2019, 191-2 language politic, 53 Lavrov, Sergey, 88 Lebed, Alexander, 11-12 Lee, Melissa Μ., 6-7 Lenin, Vladimir, statues of, 127 Levi, Margaret, 36 liberalism, defining, 75 Little Green Men, 3, 4, 109,135, 147-8 in Russian intervention in Crimea, 106-11 Little Russian, 49-51. See also Ukrainian language LNR. See Luhansk People’s Republic loyalty, 25 Luhansk, 2-3, 5, 8-9, 166,175 in Russian Spring, 131-2, 139-40 Luhansk Council, 44-5, 208 Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), 44, 172-3 data from, 180-1 industrial plant nationalization in, 184 public opinion in, 184-5 recognition of, 196 Russian language in, 184—5 standard of living in, 184 Lukyanchenko, Oleksandr, 130 Lustick, Ian, 31 Lutsenko, Yuri, 86 Maidan massacre, 89-90 Maidan nezaleshnosti (Independence Square), 67-8 Maidan protests, 1, 2, 41 Berkut in, 86, 89-92 contradictory accounts of, 73M counter-offensive in, 86 as coup, 10-11 deaths in, 85, 86, 89 dictatorship laws, 78 end of old regime following, 82-8 events triggering, 67-71 laws against, 78-9 martyrs at Sich, 77-80 Merkel on, 88 Index outside view of, 80-2 public polls on, 81 regime failure during, 90-5 as Revolution of Dignity, 11, 77, 98 self-defense groups in, 82, 84-6, 92-3 spread of violence from, 87 US State Department on, 80, 91 victims in, 90 violence in, 2,10, 71-6, 82-3, 99 Yanukovych on, 72-3, 86, 88 malochislennye narody (smallnumbered peoples), 58 Malofeev, Konstantin, 148-50, 160-1 Malomuzh, Mykola, 106 Mariupol, 159,168,175 market behaviors, 36 master
narratives. See Russian narrative; Ukrainian narrative; Western narrative Matanock, Aila Μ., 193 Matsuzato, Kimitaka, 130-1 McFaul, Michael, 13,187 Mearsheimer, John, 12 Melander, Erik, 34-5 Memorial, 7 memory politics, 46, 53 Merkel, Angela, 70 on Maidan protests, 88 Meshkov, Yuri, 60 metallurgy, 69 military intelligence, 6-7. See also Russian military intelligence Min, Brian, 34-5 Minsk Agreement, 5, 35, 174,186, 188-9,192 contentious points in, 181-2 elections and, 182-3 end of, 196 as humanitarian success, 178-9 signing of, 176, 192-3 Minsk II, 175-7, 182 Minsk Protocol, 174-5 Mohyliov, Anatoliy, 101-2,105-6 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, 48 Monroe Doctrine, 13 Mosiychuk, Ihor, 104-5 Mozgovoi, Aleksei, 144 multi-vector foreign policy, 12 Mykolaiv, 137 Mylovanov, Tymofiy, 28
Index Nalyvaichenko, Valentyn, 111-12 Narodna Rada, 81 narratives, 10-11 National Resistance Headquarters, 84 National Security and Defense Council, 111-12 national unity government, 97 nationalism, 20-1 fascism and, 141-2 of Putin, 156 Russian, 143,156 Russian-speakers and, 37 Ukrainian, 48, 51,141,194-5 nationality, 58 language and, 36-7,49-50 NATO. See North Atlantic Treaty Organization nature, 202-4 Nayyem, Mustafa, 67-8 Nazis, 76,124-5,190 neutrality, 122, 132, 146 coordinated, 207-8 of elites, 41-2 sedition v., 137,140,172, 199-202 neutrals, 41-2 NGOs. See nongovernmental organizations nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), 78 in Donbas conflict, 7 non-international armed conflicts, 7 non-violent tactics, 24 norms, 44 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 13, 55,118,151-2, 173,190,195 expansion of, 13 Putin on, 118 Russia on, 56-7 Ukraine joining, 15, 56-7, 195-6 Novorossiya, 43, 47-8,144,156 Putin on, 141 nuclear disarmament, 12 Oblrada, 130, 130 ODA. See regional administration building Odesa, 43, 141 fire, 158-9 269 in Russian Spring, 131,140-1,143-4 street pressure in, 131 Odesskaia Druzhina, 134,140 ODIHR. See OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), 179 oligarchs, 68-9, 139 Oplot, 136, 154-5 opolchenie, 128,129,148-9 Opposition Bloc, 191-2 Orange Revolution, 13-14, 64-8, 71, 75-6, 83-4,125 Orenstein, Mitchell A., 14 organization, 25 Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), 155 Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN), 48, 53-5, 76 OSCE. See
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Ottoman Empire, 47-8 OUN. See Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists Parasiuk, Volodymy, 92 Party of Regions, 17-18, 25, 52, 78, 84-6, 93-5,108-9,119,121-2, 126 center-periphery bargaining and, 64 in Crimea, 101,114-16 disintegration of, 32, 33, 41, 90-1 in Donetsk, 128,187 Eastern Ukrainian support for, 40-1 elites in, 119 failed resuscitation of, 124-7 formation of, 63 growth of, 63 legitimacy of, 74 in Russian intervention in Crimea, 43, 42 on Russian language, 52-3 as Russian party, 40-1 Russian-speakers represented by, 45 sedition of, 123 on Yanukovych, 95 Yanukovych denounced by, 126-7
270 Parubiy, Andiy, 79, 92-3,139 Patriot Ukrainy, 74, 76, 136 Patrushev, Nikolai, 101-2 payoffs, 204-6 peace studies, 34-5 Petersen, Roger, 33 on resentment, 34 Platonova, Daria, 130-1 Plotnitskiy, Igor, 155, 174 Poland, 47 Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, 47 political identities complexity of, 37 of Eastern Ukrainians, 36-7 of Russians, 25 of Ukrainians, 19-20 Political identities, of Russianspeakers, 25 Poltava, 87 Popovic, Milos, 6-7 populist right, 75 Poroshenko, Petro, 73-4, 160-3, 167, 188-9 election of, 162-3 Putin and, 174-5 Posen, Barry R., 12,18, 34 post-Soviet Eurasia actors in, 26-30 choices in, 26-30 elites in, 28-9 order of play in, 26-30 strategic setting in, 24-6 theory of war in, 23-4 triadic relationship in, 26-7 Pravyi sektor, 79-80, 82,155,157, 185-7 in Crimea, 104-5 emergence of, 74-5 flags, 108 football ultras in, 76 militant operations of, 157 violence of, 79, 81, 85-6 volunteer battalions, 153—4 presidential elections, 2010, 65-6, 83 Procuracy, 85 propaganda. See television propaganda proxy warfare, 6-7 Putin, Vladimir, 1, 3, 55, 95-9, 185, 189, 196 conflict escalated by, 20-1 Index on Crimea, 96, 105-6, 117 on Donbas conflict, 196-7 formalizing war choice of, 211-13 nationalism of, 156 on NATO, 118 on Novorossiya, 141 Poroshenko and, 174-5 Russian Crimean intervention and, 112 on Ukrainian nationalism, 194-5 Yanukovych and, 70, 98,113-14 radical right, 76-7, 80-1 defining, 75 radicalism, 75 radicalization, 75-6 violence and, 75-6 Reagan, Patrick Μ., 34-5 Red Cross, 7 regime change, 31-2, 67 regional administration buildings (ODA), 127,129-30,140
attacks on, 128-9 religion, 190-1 repression, 137-8, 206-7 in state capacity theory, 23-5 resentment, 34 defining, 34 Peterson on, 34 Revolution of Dignity, 11, 77, 98 Rodnoi yazyk, 49-50 Rostov Oblast, 158-9,166 RSFSR. See Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic Rukh, 56 rule of law, 75 Russia. See also Crimea, Russian intervention in; Soviet Union; specific topics in Donbas conflict, 3-5, 38-40,145-7 hybrid warfare and, 14 on NATO, 56-7 soft power of, 15-16 United States and, 13 Western relations with, 13 Russian Bloc. See Russkii blok Russian language, 185 in DNR/LNR, 184-5 Party of Regions on, 52-3 Russian military intelligence (GRU), 6, 134, 147-50
Index Russian narrative, 46, 55 on common destiny, 53 on Donbas conflict, 178-81 history according to, 47-51 on Soviet Union, 53-4 updating, 96 Western narrative contrasted with, 97-9 Russian nationalism, 143, 156 Russian Presidential Human Rights Council, 117 Russian Spring, 3, 43,121-4 as aborted war, 135-43 analytic narrative on, 141 coordination in, 133-5 Donbas conflict and, 141 Donbas in, 138 Donetsk in, 128,139-40 institutional void and, 127-33 Kharkiv in, 124-5,135,137-8, 140-1,143-4 Luhansk in, 131-2, 139-40 Odesa in, 131,140-1,143-4 self-defense groups in, 142-3 Russian Unity party, 102-4 Russian World. See Russkii mir Russian-speakers, 9-10,19-20, 208 advocates for, 188-9 coordinated sedition of, 27 defining, 10, 51 in Eastern Ukraine, 36-7 elites, 31, 58, 144 nationalism and, 37 Party of Regions representing, 45 political identities of, 25 rights of, 28 secession threat of, 145 sedition of, 43, 144 Russkii blok (Russian Bloc), 60 Russkii mir (Russian World), 9-10, 21,43, 66,185-7 defining, 9 Ruzhelnyk, Olga, 74 Salehyan, Idean, 6-7 Sarotte, Mary Elise, 12 SBU. See Security Service of Ukraine Scharpf, Fritz, 36 Schelling, Thomas, 211 Scherbytskyi, Volodymyr, 62 271 secession, 38, 64, 101-2, 206 Russian-speakers threat of, 145 security, defining, 36 Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), 134, 139 sedition, 19, 41-2, 44—5,132-3, 136-7, 200-2, 207. See also coordinated sedition of elites, 133 elites coordinating on, 29-30 neutrality v., 137,140,172, 199-202 of Party of Regions, 123 process-based mechanisms of coordination on, 44 of Russian-speakers, 43,144
transformation of, 28 self-defense groups, 77,103-5,108, 116, 131,152-3 in Maidan protests, 82, 84-6, 92-3 in Russian intervention in Crimea, 109 in Russian Spring, 142-3 self-identification, 59 self-removal, 95 separation, 101-2 Serbia, NATO in, 13 Sevastopol, 42, 48-9, 111 rally at, 103-4 Severodonetsk, 64 Shevchenko, Taras, 48 Shifrinson, Itzkowitz, 12 Shoigu, Sergei, 101 Sikorski, Radosław, 91-2 Skoryk, Mykola, 131 Sloviansk, 4,156-8,166 Girkin and, 150-1 military commandos in, 147-52, 156-9, 164-5 social activism, 88 social media, 180 soft power, of Russia, 15-16 Solzhenitsyn, Alexander, 51 Soros, George, 148 South-Eastern Autonomous Republic, 64 Soviet Union dissolution of, 11-12, 24-5 Russian narrative on, 53-4 secret police, 54
Index 272 spetsnaz, 147-50 Srebrenica, 183 Stalin, Joseph, 53 the state awe and, 28-9, 32 breakdown of, 24-5 citizen assessment of, 24 coercive capacity of, 29-30 Hobbes on, 23 inter-state dimension, 25-6 intra-state bargaining, 25-6 temporary weaknesses of, 38 state capacity theory, 28-9 defining, 25-6 repression in, 23-5, 28 Steinmeier, Frank-Walter, 192-3 Steinmeier Formula, 193 Stephan, Maria J., 24 the street, 145 aborted war in, 135-43 activity of, in Donetsk, 127-8 defining, 121-2 elite outflanked by, 129,132-3 elites emerging from, 146 pressure from, in Odesa, 131 Strelkov. See Girkin, Igor subgame perfect Nash equilibrium (SPNE), 206 Suny, Ronald Grigor, 15-16 Surkov, Vladislav, 160-1 Svoboda, 77-8, 79 Taylor, Michael, 19 technology, warfare and, 14 television propaganda, 101 in Russian intervention in Crimea, 104-6 Tenyukh, Ihor, 111-12 terrorism, 151-2, 155, 182-3 titushki, 77, 79, 82, 84-5, 87, 105-6 Titushko, Vadym, 79 trade deal, 67-71, 212-13 Trade Union Building, 83 Treisman, Daniel S., 118 triadic model, 25, 26 in post-Soviet Eurasia, 26-7 Trump, Donald, 16-17 Tryzub, 74 Turchynov, Oleksandr, 93-6 Tyahnybok, Oleh, 74-5 Tymoshenko, Yulia, 51, 69, 70, 95 Tyndiuk, Mykola, 131 Udar, 79 Ukraine. See also specific topics Crimean exit threats, 59 ethnic groups in, 49 ethnic minorities in, 38 geography of, 11 history of, 47-51 indigenous peoples of, 59-60 national identity, 3 NATO joined by, 15, 195-6 political identity of, 19-20 reunification, 47-9 war initiation in, 30-5 Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, 70-1 Yanukovych on, 68-9, 71 Ukrainian Communist Party, 56
Ukrainian constitution 1996, 83-4 2004, 83^4 Ukrainian language, 51-2, 56. See also language law banning of, 51 recognition of, 50 as state language, 52 Ukrainian narrative, 46, 51-2 on common destiny, 53 updating, 96 Ukrainian nationalism, 48, 51,141 Putin on, 194-5 Ukrainian Orthodox Church, 17, 49, 190-1 Ukrainian Supreme Court, 64-5 Ukrainian-speakers, defining, 51 UN Security Council, 12 underground army (UPA), 48 United States in Cold War, 15-16 Russia and, 13 unmarked soldiers, 101 UNR. See Ukrainian People’s Republic UPA. See underground army US State Department, on Maidan protests, 80, 91 Van Evera, Steve, 40 Venice Commission, 117-18
273 Index vigilantism, 43 Vilnius Summit, 67-8, 71 violence, 72 disapproval of, 72 legitimization of, 80 in Maidan protests, 2,10, 71-6, 82-3, 99 of Pravyi sektor, 79, 81, 85-6 radicalization and, 75-6 Western narrative on, 99 Volodymyr (prince), 48-9 Voitovych, Nazarii, 90 volunteer battalions, 153 Pravyi sektor, 153-4 Vostok, 154-5 war initiation, in Ukraine, 30-5 war of position, 15 Web 2.0,14 Weber, Max, 23 Weingast, Barry R., 33 Western narrative diplomats espousing, 41-2 Russian narrative contrasted with, 97-9 on violence, 99 Western Ukraine, 41, 53 on post-Maidan regime legitimacy, 122 Wimmer, Andreas, 34-5 Wolfsagen symbol, 76 World War I, 8, 48 World War II, 190 Yanukovych, Viktor, 1,13-14, 72, 83, 91-2,103 ATO of, 151 decision to flee, 31-2, 41, 97, 98, 126 disintegration of support for, 93 on EEU, 69-70 election of, 54, 57 electoral loss of, 64-5 on Holodomor, 54 on Maidan protests, 72-3, 86, 88 Party of Regions denouncing, 126-7 Party of Regions on, 95 Putin and, 70, 98, 113-14 removal of, 33, 93, 95, 96 trial of, 113 on Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, 68-9, 71 Yarema, Vitaliy, 139 Yarosh, Dmytro, 79,157 Yatseniuk, Arseniy, 74-5, 79, 80, 111-12 Yeltsin, Boris, 59 Yushchenko, Viktor, 1, 51, 56-7, 64-6,189 Zakharchenko, Aleksandr, 72-3, 154-5, 167-8,174 Zakharchenko, Vitaliy, 92-5 Zamana, Volodymyr, 88 Zarya, 154-5 Zelensky, Volodymyr, 188, 193, 195-6 zero-sum bargaining, 51-7, 211 analytic narrative and, 57-8 Zeveleva, Olga, 106 Zviahils’kyi, Yefym, 62 Zyuganov, Gennady, 11-12 Bayerisch« Staatsbibliothek München |
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| geographic | Ukraine (DE-588)4061496-7 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Ukraine |
| id | DE-604.BV048651727 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T21:19:55Z |
| indexdate | 2025-01-07T13:17:54Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781316511497 9781009055949 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-034026504 |
| oclc_num | 1362879163 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-Re13 DE-BY-UBR DE-29 DE-12 DE-M352 |
| owner_facet | DE-Re13 DE-BY-UBR DE-29 DE-12 DE-M352 |
| physical | xi, 273 Seiten Diagramme, Karten |
| psigel | BSB_NED_20230215 |
| publishDateSearch | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Arel, Dominique 1959- Verfasser (DE-588)143648535 aut Ukraine's unnamed war before the Russian invasion of 2022 Dominique Arel (University of Ottawa), Jesse Driscoll (University of California San Diego) Cambridge ; New York, NY ; Port Melbourne ; New Delhi ; Singapore Cambridge University Press 2023 xi, 273 Seiten Diagramme, Karten txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Geschichte 2013-2022 gnd rswk-swf Regimewechsel (DE-588)1126275905 gnd rswk-swf Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg (DE-588)106969780X gnd rswk-swf Euromaidan (DE-588)1057900818 gnd rswk-swf Ukraine (DE-588)4061496-7 gnd rswk-swf Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg (DE-588)106969780X s Geschichte 2013-2022 z DE-604 Ukraine (DE-588)4061496-7 g Euromaidan (DE-588)1057900818 s Regimewechsel (DE-588)1126275905 s Driscoll, Jesse 1978- Verfasser (DE-588)1046906879 aut Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034026504&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034026504&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Literaturverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034026504&sequence=000005&line_number=0003&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Register // Gemischte Register |
| spellingShingle | Arel, Dominique 1959- Driscoll, Jesse 1978- Ukraine's unnamed war before the Russian invasion of 2022 Regimewechsel (DE-588)1126275905 gnd Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg (DE-588)106969780X gnd Euromaidan (DE-588)1057900818 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)1126275905 (DE-588)106969780X (DE-588)1057900818 (DE-588)4061496-7 |
| title | Ukraine's unnamed war before the Russian invasion of 2022 |
| title_auth | Ukraine's unnamed war before the Russian invasion of 2022 |
| title_exact_search | Ukraine's unnamed war before the Russian invasion of 2022 |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Ukraine's unnamed war before the Russian invasion of 2022 |
| title_full | Ukraine's unnamed war before the Russian invasion of 2022 Dominique Arel (University of Ottawa), Jesse Driscoll (University of California San Diego) |
| title_fullStr | Ukraine's unnamed war before the Russian invasion of 2022 Dominique Arel (University of Ottawa), Jesse Driscoll (University of California San Diego) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ukraine's unnamed war before the Russian invasion of 2022 Dominique Arel (University of Ottawa), Jesse Driscoll (University of California San Diego) |
| title_short | Ukraine's unnamed war |
| title_sort | ukraine s unnamed war before the russian invasion of 2022 |
| title_sub | before the Russian invasion of 2022 |
| topic | Regimewechsel (DE-588)1126275905 gnd Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg (DE-588)106969780X gnd Euromaidan (DE-588)1057900818 gnd |
| topic_facet | Regimewechsel Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg Euromaidan Ukraine |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034026504&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034026504&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034026504&sequence=000005&line_number=0003&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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