The primacy of doubt: from climate change to quantum physics, how the science of uncertainty can help predict and understand our chaotic world
"On October 16, 1987 meteorologists predicted a nice, breezy day in the south of England. Instead, the countryside was battered by the worst storm to hit the country in over 300 years. Twenty-two people were killed and damages totaled more than 3.3 million dollars. In the aftermath, scientists...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Oxford
Oxford University Press
2022
|
| Ausgabe: | First edition |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Zusammenfassung: | "On October 16, 1987 meteorologists predicted a nice, breezy day in the south of England. Instead, the countryside was battered by the worst storm to hit the country in over 300 years. Twenty-two people were killed and damages totaled more than 3.3 million dollars. In the aftermath, scientists asked themselves: why was the forecast wrong? What could have been done to predict this? Meteorologist Tim Palmer discovered the answer: it comes down to embracing chaos. In The Primacy of Doubt, Palmer tells the story of how scientists learned to accurately predict the weather, and how we can use those insights to predict everything else, from the workings of the brain and how it creates consciousness to how quantum mechanics enables everything we see to emerge from just four basic particles. The key is embracing uncertainty. In the case of the Great Storm of 1987, Palmer found, forecasters were too obsessed with finding an on-off switch in their models: either it would be stormy or it wouldn't. Palmer led the charge to inject probabilistic forecasting into weather models, a massive breakthrough that has revolutionized our ability not only to know whether to bring an umbrella, but to prevent life-threatening catastrophes. But weather isn't the only thing that we use deterministic models to predict. Our understanding of quantum physics, climate change, and the economy could all be revolutionized by acknowledging uncertainty, Palmer argues, and those revolutions are long overdue. A fascinating firsthand account of the science of uncertainty, The Primacy of Doubt is for anyone seeking to better understand not just what scientists do and don't understand about the universe. The Primacy of Doubt proves one thing for certain: the key to knowing is to admit when you don't know"-- |
| Beschreibung: | xx, 297 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 9780192843593 |
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| 505 | 8 | |a The Primacy of Doubt takes us on a unique journey through the science of uncertainty. A key theme that unifies these seemingly unconnected topics is the geometry of chaos: the beautiful and profound fractal structures that lie at the heart of much of modern mathematics. Royal Society Research Professor Tim Palmer shows us how the geometry of chaos not only provides the means to predict the world around us, it suggests new insights into some of the most astonishing aspects of our universe and ourselves. This important and timely book helps the reader makes sense of uncertainty in a rapidly changing world. | |
| 520 | 3 | |a "On October 16, 1987 meteorologists predicted a nice, breezy day in the south of England. Instead, the countryside was battered by the worst storm to hit the country in over 300 years. Twenty-two people were killed and damages totaled more than 3.3 million dollars. In the aftermath, scientists asked themselves: why was the forecast wrong? What could have been done to predict this? Meteorologist Tim Palmer discovered the answer: it comes down to embracing chaos. In The Primacy of Doubt, Palmer tells the story of how scientists learned to accurately predict the weather, and how we can use those insights to predict everything else, from the workings of the brain and how it creates consciousness to how quantum mechanics enables everything we see to emerge from just four basic particles. The key is embracing uncertainty. In the case of the Great Storm of 1987, Palmer found, forecasters were too obsessed with finding an on-off switch in their models: either it would be stormy or it wouldn't. Palmer led the charge to inject probabilistic forecasting into weather models, a massive breakthrough that has revolutionized our ability not only to know whether to bring an umbrella, but to prevent life-threatening catastrophes. But weather isn't the only thing that we use deterministic models to predict. Our understanding of quantum physics, climate change, and the economy could all be revolutionized by acknowledging uncertainty, Palmer argues, and those revolutions are long overdue. A fascinating firsthand account of the science of uncertainty, The Primacy of Doubt is for anyone seeking to better understand not just what scientists do and don't understand about the universe. The Primacy of Doubt proves one thing for certain: the key to knowing is to admit when you don't know"-- | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| author | Palmer, Tim N. |
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| bvnumber | BV048494903 |
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| contents | The Primacy of Doubt takes us on a unique journey through the science of uncertainty. A key theme that unifies these seemingly unconnected topics is the geometry of chaos: the beautiful and profound fractal structures that lie at the heart of much of modern mathematics. Royal Society Research Professor Tim Palmer shows us how the geometry of chaos not only provides the means to predict the world around us, it suggests new insights into some of the most astonishing aspects of our universe and ourselves. This important and timely book helps the reader makes sense of uncertainty in a rapidly changing world. |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1350770033 (DE-599)BVBBV048494903 |
| discipline | Physik Mathematik Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| discipline_str_mv | Physik Mathematik Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | First edition |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV048494903 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:43:02Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-20T07:22:44Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780192843593 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033872300 |
| oclc_num | 1350770033 |
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| physical | xx, 297 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publishDateSearch | 2022 |
| publishDateSort | 2022 |
| publisher | Oxford University Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Palmer, Tim N. Verfasser (DE-588)141822384 aut The primacy of doubt from climate change to quantum physics, how the science of uncertainty can help predict and understand our chaotic world Tim Palmer First edition Oxford Oxford University Press 2022 xx, 297 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier The Primacy of Doubt takes us on a unique journey through the science of uncertainty. A key theme that unifies these seemingly unconnected topics is the geometry of chaos: the beautiful and profound fractal structures that lie at the heart of much of modern mathematics. Royal Society Research Professor Tim Palmer shows us how the geometry of chaos not only provides the means to predict the world around us, it suggests new insights into some of the most astonishing aspects of our universe and ourselves. This important and timely book helps the reader makes sense of uncertainty in a rapidly changing world. "On October 16, 1987 meteorologists predicted a nice, breezy day in the south of England. Instead, the countryside was battered by the worst storm to hit the country in over 300 years. Twenty-two people were killed and damages totaled more than 3.3 million dollars. In the aftermath, scientists asked themselves: why was the forecast wrong? What could have been done to predict this? Meteorologist Tim Palmer discovered the answer: it comes down to embracing chaos. In The Primacy of Doubt, Palmer tells the story of how scientists learned to accurately predict the weather, and how we can use those insights to predict everything else, from the workings of the brain and how it creates consciousness to how quantum mechanics enables everything we see to emerge from just four basic particles. The key is embracing uncertainty. In the case of the Great Storm of 1987, Palmer found, forecasters were too obsessed with finding an on-off switch in their models: either it would be stormy or it wouldn't. Palmer led the charge to inject probabilistic forecasting into weather models, a massive breakthrough that has revolutionized our ability not only to know whether to bring an umbrella, but to prevent life-threatening catastrophes. But weather isn't the only thing that we use deterministic models to predict. Our understanding of quantum physics, climate change, and the economy could all be revolutionized by acknowledging uncertainty, Palmer argues, and those revolutions are long overdue. A fascinating firsthand account of the science of uncertainty, The Primacy of Doubt is for anyone seeking to better understand not just what scientists do and don't understand about the universe. The Primacy of Doubt proves one thing for certain: the key to knowing is to admit when you don't know"-- Ungewissheit (DE-588)4137198-7 gnd rswk-swf Chaostheorie (DE-588)4009754-7 gnd rswk-swf Chaotisches System (DE-588)4316104-2 gnd rswk-swf Wettervorhersage (DE-588)4079256-0 gnd rswk-swf Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 gnd rswk-swf Weather forecasting Uncertainty Probabilities Quantum theory SCIENCE / Physics Ungewissheit (DE-588)4137198-7 s Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 s Chaostheorie (DE-588)4009754-7 s Wettervorhersage (DE-588)4079256-0 s DE-604 Chaotisches System (DE-588)4316104-2 s |
| spellingShingle | Palmer, Tim N. The primacy of doubt from climate change to quantum physics, how the science of uncertainty can help predict and understand our chaotic world The Primacy of Doubt takes us on a unique journey through the science of uncertainty. A key theme that unifies these seemingly unconnected topics is the geometry of chaos: the beautiful and profound fractal structures that lie at the heart of much of modern mathematics. Royal Society Research Professor Tim Palmer shows us how the geometry of chaos not only provides the means to predict the world around us, it suggests new insights into some of the most astonishing aspects of our universe and ourselves. This important and timely book helps the reader makes sense of uncertainty in a rapidly changing world. Ungewissheit (DE-588)4137198-7 gnd Chaostheorie (DE-588)4009754-7 gnd Chaotisches System (DE-588)4316104-2 gnd Wettervorhersage (DE-588)4079256-0 gnd Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4137198-7 (DE-588)4009754-7 (DE-588)4316104-2 (DE-588)4079256-0 (DE-588)4064324-4 |
| title | The primacy of doubt from climate change to quantum physics, how the science of uncertainty can help predict and understand our chaotic world |
| title_auth | The primacy of doubt from climate change to quantum physics, how the science of uncertainty can help predict and understand our chaotic world |
| title_exact_search | The primacy of doubt from climate change to quantum physics, how the science of uncertainty can help predict and understand our chaotic world |
| title_exact_search_txtP | The primacy of doubt from climate change to quantum physics, how the science of uncertainty can help predict and understand our chaotic world |
| title_full | The primacy of doubt from climate change to quantum physics, how the science of uncertainty can help predict and understand our chaotic world Tim Palmer |
| title_fullStr | The primacy of doubt from climate change to quantum physics, how the science of uncertainty can help predict and understand our chaotic world Tim Palmer |
| title_full_unstemmed | The primacy of doubt from climate change to quantum physics, how the science of uncertainty can help predict and understand our chaotic world Tim Palmer |
| title_short | The primacy of doubt |
| title_sort | the primacy of doubt from climate change to quantum physics how the science of uncertainty can help predict and understand our chaotic world |
| title_sub | from climate change to quantum physics, how the science of uncertainty can help predict and understand our chaotic world |
| topic | Ungewissheit (DE-588)4137198-7 gnd Chaostheorie (DE-588)4009754-7 gnd Chaotisches System (DE-588)4316104-2 gnd Wettervorhersage (DE-588)4079256-0 gnd Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | Ungewissheit Chaostheorie Chaotisches System Wettervorhersage Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT palmertimn theprimacyofdoubtfromclimatechangetoquantumphysicshowthescienceofuncertaintycanhelppredictandunderstandourchaoticworld |