The leading economic indicators and business cycles in the United States: 100 years of empirical evidence and the opportunities for the future
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
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Palgrave Macmillan
[2022]
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| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | xxiv, 650 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 9783030994174 |
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| adam_text | Contents 1 2 Economic Growth and Business Cycles in the U.S 1.1 Depression in the Late Nineteenth-Century U.S. Economy 1.1.1 The Panic of 1873 1.1.2 The Cycle of 1879-1885 1.1.3 The Cycle of 1885-1888 1.1.4 The Panic of 1893 and the Cycle of 1894-1897 1.1.5 Monetary Policy and Prices, 1890-1909 1.2 Mr. Fisher and the Purchasing Power of Money and Depressions 1.3 Post-War Economic History and Measuring U.S. Economic Growth 1.4 Our Path Ahead Wesley Clair Mitchell: The Advent of U.S. And NBER Business Cycle Research 2.1 Mitchell’s Early Business Cycles Analysis: What Investors Needs to Know About the Cumulation of Prosperity 2.1.1 Mitchell’s Early Business Cycles Analysis: Prosperity Breeding Crisis 1 4 6 7 8 9 10 12 15 19 23 24 26 xi
Contents xii Mitchells Early Business Cycles Analysis: Crisis 28 2.1.3 Mitchells Early Business Cycles Analysis: Business Depression 2.1.4 Mitchells Early Business Cycles Analysis: Wider Aspects of Business Cycles Mr. Mitchell and His Business Cycles and Unemployment Mitchell’s Business Cycles Analysis at the NBER: Volume 1 Summary and Conclusions of Mr. Mitchell and His Business Cycles and His Business Cycles 48 2.1.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 3 4 Measuring Business Activity: An Introductions to the Contributions of Mr. Persons, Mr. Schumpeter, Mr. Haberler, and Mr. Eckstein 49 3.1 Mr. Persons and the General Business Conditions Index 50 3.2 Mr. Schumpeter and His Business Cycles 3.3 Mr. Haberler and Prosperity and Depression 3.3.1 Mr. Haberler and the Prosperity and Depression Phases 3.3.2 Mr. Haberler and His the Expansion and Contraction Phases 67 3.3.3 Mr. Haberler on Crisis and Revival 3.4 Econometric Modelling and Mr. Eckstein and His DRI Model 3.4.1 Mr. Eckstein: The DRI Model and the Business Cycle 3.5 Summary and Conclusions to the Contributions of Mr. Persons, Schumpeter, Haberler, and Eckstein Mr. Burns and Mr. Mitchell on Measuring Business Cycles 4.1 Comments on Measuring Business Cycles 4.2 Mr. Burns on Mr. Mitchell and the Progress on Business Cycle Research 4.3 Summary and Conclusions of the Mr. Burns and Mr. Mitchell Business Cycle Research References 31 34 36 39 58 63 65 69 71 74 77 79 88 92 99 99
Contents 5 6 Mr. Geoffrey Moore and NBER Business Cycle Research 5.1 Mr. Moore and his Business Cycles Indicators (1961) 5.2 Mr. Moore and his Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting (1983) 109 5.3 What is a Recession? 5.3.1 Mr. Moore and His Leading Group Indicators 5.3.2 Unemployment 5.3.3 The Money Supply and Stock Prices 5.4 Mr. Moore and the Mildness and Shortness of Postwar Recessions 116 5.5 Mr. Moore and his Leading Indicators for the 1990s 5.6 Mr. Moore and Mr. Lahiri and Their Leading Economic Indicators (1991) 120 5.7 Mr. Żarnowitz and his Tribute to Mr. Moore: The Ms. Dua Volume 121 5.8 Summary and Conclusions Mr. Victor Zarnowitz and Economic Forecasting, and NBER Business Cycle Research 125 6.1 Forecast Rationality 6.2 Absolute and Relative Forecast Accuracy 6.3 Extending the Mincer-Zarnowitz Forecasting Benchmark 134 6.4 Mr. Zarnowitz, the NBER, and Business Cycle Research in 1992 138 6.4.1 Mr. Zarnowitz and the Lists of Leading Indicators, 1950-1989 6.4.2 Econometric Model Simulations and Business Cycles 6.5 Mr. Zarnowitz and The Major Market Economies during the Post-World War II Period 146 6.5.1 Estimated Dimensions of Business Cycles in Eight Countries 6.5.2 Growth Cycles 6.5.3 Mr. Zarnowitz and Exogenous Business Cycle Variables: Money 6.5.4 Mr. Zarnowitz, Business Cycles and Expectational Shocks xiii 101 102 109 111 113 113 118 124 127 132 142 143 147 150 152 153
xiv Contents What is a Business Cycle: Some General Conclusions 6.6 Summary and Conclusions Appendix 6.1: Exponential Smoothing References 6.5.5 Regression and Time Series Modeling of Real GDP, the Unemployment Rate, and the Impact of Leading Economic Indicators on Forecasting Accuracy 7.1 Estimating an Ordinary Least Square Regression Line 7.2 Estimating Multiple Regression Lines 7.3 Influential Observations and Possible Outliers and the Application of Robust Regression 7.4 Estimating Simple and Multiple Regression Models in SAS 7.4.1 Estimating OLS and Robust Regression Real GDP Models in SAS 7.4.2 Estimating OLS and Robust Regression Models of the Unemployment Rate in SAS 7.5 Estimating Robust Regression Simple and Multiple Regression Model in SAS 7.6 Estimating Automatic Time Series Models and Forecasting 7.6.1 Automatic Time Series Model Selection Using OxMetrics 7.6.2 Automatic Time Series Modeling of Real GDP Using Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), 1959-2020 7.7 Automatic Time Series Modeling of the Unemployment Rate Using Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) 7.8 Forecasting the Unemployment Series with Leading Indicators and Adaptive Learning 7.9 Concluding Remarks and Extensions Appendix: OxMetrics Modeling in the COVID Period BOLD Notes the Statistically Significant ARI and LEI Coefficients and the WkUNCL Component Variables BOLD Denotes Statistically Significant Coefficients on the ARI and LEI and Its WkUNCL Components References 155 156 157 160 163 165 169 171 173 175 191 230 241 242 245 250 265 268 268 274 280 286
Contents 8 9 Granger Causality Testing and LEI Forecasting of Quarterly Mergers and the Unemployment Rate 8.1 Causal Analysis for Economic Policy 8.2 Regression Modeling of Quarterly Mergers, Stock Prices, and the LEI 293 8.3 Time Series Model Selection and Granger Causality Modeling 8.4 Granger Causality Testing in the SCA System 8.5 Rolling Forecast Windows Modeling Efficiency 8.5.1 Rolling Windows and Real GDP with the LEI and Money Supply 316 8.6 Summary and Conclusions References Active Management in Portfolio Selection and Management Within Business Cycles and Present-Day COVID 9.1 The Risk-Return Trade-Off Work of Markowitz, Sharpe, and Elton and Gruber 9.1.1 Markowitz Optimization Analysis 9.1.2 Multi-Beta Risk Control Models 9.1.3 The BARRA Model: The Primary Institutional Risk Model 9.2 Implementing Optimal Portfolio Selection 9.2.1 What We Knew in 1991 Tests of Fundamental Data 9.2.2 What We Learned After 1993 9.2.3 Markowitz Risk Modeling with Barra and Axioma Risk Models: Constructing Mean-Variance Efficient Frontiers 9.2.4 The Stone Mathematical Assignment Program Trade-off Curve 371 9.3 The Existence and Continued Persistence of Financial Anomalies, 2003-2108 372 9.3.1 Portfolio Selection Through Much of COVID 9.4 Summary and Conclusions References XV 291 292 298 300 309 324 326 331 332 337 344 349 355 355 363 368 386 406 406
xvi 10 11 Contents Testing and Forecasting the Unemployment Rate with the Most Current Data, TCB LEI, Data as of 11/05/2021 415 10.1 OLS Modeling of the PJD Unemployment Rate, TCB LEI 11052021 in 1959-11/2021 10.2 Robust Regression of the Modeling the PJD Unemployment Rate, TCB LEI 11052021 10.3 Robust Regression Estimations of the DUE, DLLEIL1, and DkWkUNCLLl Relationships Using Μ, S, and MM-Estimations 503 10.4 OLS Modeling of the PJD Unemployment Rate, TCB LEI 11052021 in 1999-11/2021 10.5 Robust Regression of the Modeling the PJD Unemployment Rate, TCB LEI 11052021, 1999-11/2021 532 10.6 Automatic Time Series Modeling and Forecasting the PJD Unemployment Rate, the Application of OxMetrics to TCB LEI 11052021 543 10.7 Automatic Time Series Modeling and Forecasting the PJD Unemployment Rate, the Application of OxMetrics to TCB LEI 11052021 to the MZTT Post-publication Period, 1999-11/2021 569 10.8 Concluding Remarks and Extensions References Conclusions and Summary 11.1 Where Do We Go from Here? 416 478 518 578 579 581 590 Appendix: The Theory and Estimation of Regression, Time Series Analysis, and Causality Modeling of the Unemployment Rate and the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) 591 Selected References 639 Index 643
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| adam_txt |
Contents 1 2 Economic Growth and Business Cycles in the U.S 1.1 Depression in the Late Nineteenth-Century U.S. Economy 1.1.1 The Panic of 1873 1.1.2 The Cycle of 1879-1885 1.1.3 The Cycle of 1885-1888 1.1.4 The Panic of 1893 and the Cycle of 1894-1897 1.1.5 Monetary Policy and Prices, 1890-1909 1.2 Mr. Fisher and the Purchasing Power of Money and Depressions 1.3 Post-War Economic History and Measuring U.S. Economic Growth 1.4 Our Path Ahead Wesley Clair Mitchell: The Advent of U.S. And NBER Business Cycle Research 2.1 Mitchell’s Early Business Cycles Analysis: What Investors Needs to Know About the Cumulation of Prosperity 2.1.1 Mitchell’s Early Business Cycles Analysis: Prosperity Breeding Crisis 1 4 6 7 8 9 10 12 15 19 23 24 26 xi
Contents xii Mitchells Early Business Cycles Analysis: Crisis 28 2.1.3 Mitchells Early Business Cycles Analysis: Business Depression 2.1.4 Mitchells Early Business Cycles Analysis: Wider Aspects of Business Cycles Mr. Mitchell and His Business Cycles and Unemployment Mitchell’s Business Cycles Analysis at the NBER: Volume 1 Summary and Conclusions of Mr. Mitchell and His Business Cycles and His Business Cycles 48 2.1.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 3 4 Measuring Business Activity: An Introductions to the Contributions of Mr. Persons, Mr. Schumpeter, Mr. Haberler, and Mr. Eckstein 49 3.1 Mr. Persons and the General Business Conditions Index 50 3.2 Mr. Schumpeter and His Business Cycles 3.3 Mr. Haberler and Prosperity and Depression 3.3.1 Mr. Haberler and the Prosperity and Depression Phases 3.3.2 Mr. Haberler and His the Expansion and Contraction Phases 67 3.3.3 Mr. Haberler on Crisis and Revival 3.4 Econometric Modelling and Mr. Eckstein and His DRI Model 3.4.1 Mr. Eckstein: The DRI Model and the Business Cycle 3.5 Summary and Conclusions to the Contributions of Mr. Persons, Schumpeter, Haberler, and Eckstein Mr. Burns and Mr. Mitchell on Measuring Business Cycles 4.1 Comments on Measuring Business Cycles 4.2 Mr. Burns on Mr. Mitchell and the Progress on Business Cycle Research 4.3 Summary and Conclusions of the Mr. Burns and Mr. Mitchell Business Cycle Research References 31 34 36 39 58 63 65 69 71 74 77 79 88 92 99 99
Contents 5 6 Mr. Geoffrey Moore and NBER Business Cycle Research 5.1 Mr. Moore and his Business Cycles Indicators (1961) 5.2 Mr. Moore and his Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting (1983) 109 5.3 What is a Recession? 5.3.1 Mr. Moore and His Leading Group Indicators 5.3.2 Unemployment 5.3.3 The Money Supply and Stock Prices 5.4 Mr. Moore and the Mildness and Shortness of Postwar Recessions 116 5.5 Mr. Moore and his Leading Indicators for the 1990s 5.6 Mr. Moore and Mr. Lahiri and Their Leading Economic Indicators (1991) 120 5.7 Mr. Żarnowitz and his Tribute to Mr. Moore: The Ms. Dua Volume 121 5.8 Summary and Conclusions Mr. Victor Zarnowitz and Economic Forecasting, and NBER Business Cycle Research 125 6.1 Forecast Rationality 6.2 Absolute and Relative Forecast Accuracy 6.3 Extending the Mincer-Zarnowitz Forecasting Benchmark 134 6.4 Mr. Zarnowitz, the NBER, and Business Cycle Research in 1992 138 6.4.1 Mr. Zarnowitz and the Lists of Leading Indicators, 1950-1989 6.4.2 Econometric Model Simulations and Business Cycles 6.5 Mr. Zarnowitz and The Major Market Economies during the Post-World War II Period 146 6.5.1 Estimated Dimensions of Business Cycles in Eight Countries 6.5.2 Growth Cycles 6.5.3 Mr. Zarnowitz and Exogenous Business Cycle Variables: Money 6.5.4 Mr. Zarnowitz, Business Cycles and Expectational Shocks xiii 101 102 109 111 113 113 118 124 127 132 142 143 147 150 152 153
xiv Contents What is a Business Cycle: Some General Conclusions 6.6 Summary and Conclusions Appendix 6.1: Exponential Smoothing References 6.5.5 Regression and Time Series Modeling of Real GDP, the Unemployment Rate, and the Impact of Leading Economic Indicators on Forecasting Accuracy 7.1 Estimating an Ordinary Least Square Regression Line 7.2 Estimating Multiple Regression Lines 7.3 Influential Observations and Possible Outliers and the Application of Robust Regression 7.4 Estimating Simple and Multiple Regression Models in SAS 7.4.1 Estimating OLS and Robust Regression Real GDP Models in SAS 7.4.2 Estimating OLS and Robust Regression Models of the Unemployment Rate in SAS 7.5 Estimating Robust Regression Simple and Multiple Regression Model in SAS 7.6 Estimating Automatic Time Series Models and Forecasting 7.6.1 Automatic Time Series Model Selection Using OxMetrics 7.6.2 Automatic Time Series Modeling of Real GDP Using Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), 1959-2020 7.7 Automatic Time Series Modeling of the Unemployment Rate Using Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) 7.8 Forecasting the Unemployment Series with Leading Indicators and Adaptive Learning 7.9 Concluding Remarks and Extensions Appendix: OxMetrics Modeling in the COVID Period BOLD Notes the Statistically Significant ARI and LEI Coefficients and the WkUNCL Component Variables BOLD Denotes Statistically Significant Coefficients on the ARI and LEI and Its WkUNCL Components References 155 156 157 160 163 165 169 171 173 175 191 230 241 242 245 250 265 268 268 274 280 286
Contents 8 9 Granger Causality Testing and LEI Forecasting of Quarterly Mergers and the Unemployment Rate 8.1 Causal Analysis for Economic Policy 8.2 Regression Modeling of Quarterly Mergers, Stock Prices, and the LEI 293 8.3 Time Series Model Selection and Granger Causality Modeling 8.4 Granger Causality Testing in the SCA System 8.5 Rolling Forecast Windows Modeling Efficiency 8.5.1 Rolling Windows and Real GDP with the LEI and Money Supply 316 8.6 Summary and Conclusions References Active Management in Portfolio Selection and Management Within Business Cycles and Present-Day COVID 9.1 The Risk-Return Trade-Off Work of Markowitz, Sharpe, and Elton and Gruber 9.1.1 Markowitz Optimization Analysis 9.1.2 Multi-Beta Risk Control Models 9.1.3 The BARRA Model: The Primary Institutional Risk Model 9.2 Implementing Optimal Portfolio Selection 9.2.1 What We Knew in 1991 Tests of Fundamental Data 9.2.2 What We Learned After 1993 9.2.3 Markowitz Risk Modeling with Barra and Axioma Risk Models: Constructing Mean-Variance Efficient Frontiers 9.2.4 The Stone Mathematical Assignment Program Trade-off Curve 371 9.3 The Existence and Continued Persistence of Financial Anomalies, 2003-2108 372 9.3.1 Portfolio Selection Through Much of COVID 9.4 Summary and Conclusions References XV 291 292 298 300 309 324 326 331 332 337 344 349 355 355 363 368 386 406 406
xvi 10 11 Contents Testing and Forecasting the Unemployment Rate with the Most Current Data, TCB LEI, Data as of 11/05/2021 415 10.1 OLS Modeling of the PJD Unemployment Rate, TCB LEI 11052021 in 1959-11/2021 10.2 Robust Regression of the Modeling the PJD Unemployment Rate, TCB LEI 11052021 10.3 Robust Regression Estimations of the DUE, DLLEIL1, and DkWkUNCLLl Relationships Using Μ, S, and MM-Estimations 503 10.4 OLS Modeling of the PJD Unemployment Rate, TCB LEI 11052021 in 1999-11/2021 10.5 Robust Regression of the Modeling the PJD Unemployment Rate, TCB LEI 11052021, 1999-11/2021 532 10.6 Automatic Time Series Modeling and Forecasting the PJD Unemployment Rate, the Application of OxMetrics to TCB LEI 11052021 543 10.7 Automatic Time Series Modeling and Forecasting the PJD Unemployment Rate, the Application of OxMetrics to TCB LEI 11052021 to the MZTT Post-publication Period, 1999-11/2021 569 10.8 Concluding Remarks and Extensions References Conclusions and Summary 11.1 Where Do We Go from Here? 416 478 518 578 579 581 590 Appendix: The Theory and Estimation of Regression, Time Series Analysis, and Causality Modeling of the Unemployment Rate and the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) 591 Selected References 639 Index 643 |
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| spelling | Guerard, John Baynard Verfasser (DE-588)170085600 aut The leading economic indicators and business cycles in the United States 100 years of empirical evidence and the opportunities for the future John B. Guerard Cham Palgrave Macmillan [2022] xxiv, 650 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Quantitative Economics Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics Financial History Econometrics Macroeconomics Finance History Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-3-030-99418-1 Digitalisierung UB Regensburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=033767967&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Guerard, John Baynard The leading economic indicators and business cycles in the United States 100 years of empirical evidence and the opportunities for the future Quantitative Economics Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics Financial History Econometrics Macroeconomics Finance History |
| title | The leading economic indicators and business cycles in the United States 100 years of empirical evidence and the opportunities for the future |
| title_auth | The leading economic indicators and business cycles in the United States 100 years of empirical evidence and the opportunities for the future |
| title_exact_search | The leading economic indicators and business cycles in the United States 100 years of empirical evidence and the opportunities for the future |
| title_exact_search_txtP | The leading economic indicators and business cycles in the United States 100 years of empirical evidence and the opportunities for the future |
| title_full | The leading economic indicators and business cycles in the United States 100 years of empirical evidence and the opportunities for the future John B. Guerard |
| title_fullStr | The leading economic indicators and business cycles in the United States 100 years of empirical evidence and the opportunities for the future John B. Guerard |
| title_full_unstemmed | The leading economic indicators and business cycles in the United States 100 years of empirical evidence and the opportunities for the future John B. Guerard |
| title_short | The leading economic indicators and business cycles in the United States |
| title_sort | the leading economic indicators and business cycles in the united states 100 years of empirical evidence and the opportunities for the future |
| title_sub | 100 years of empirical evidence and the opportunities for the future |
| topic | Quantitative Economics Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics Financial History Econometrics Macroeconomics Finance History |
| topic_facet | Quantitative Economics Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics Financial History Econometrics Macroeconomics Finance History |
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