Oil and the world economy: some possible futures

This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for l...

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1. Verfasser: Kumhof, Michael (VerfasserIn)
Format: Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2012
Schriftenreihe:IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 12/256
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Zusammenfassung:This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult
Beschreibung:1 Online-Ressource (31 Seiten)
ISBN:9781475539974
1475539975
1475586647
9781475586640
ISSN:1018-5941

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