Oil and the world economy: some possible futures
This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for l...
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Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
Sprache: | English |
Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2012
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Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 12/256 |
Schlagworte: | |
Online-Zugang: | BSB01 FAN01 FHA01 FKE01 FLA01 FLA01 FNU01 LCO01 SBG01 SBR01 TUM01 UBA01 UBG01 UBM01 UBR01 UBT01 UBW01 UBY01 UEI01 UER01 UPA01 Volltext |
Zusammenfassung: | This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult |
Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (31 Seiten) |
ISBN: | 9781475539974 1475539975 1475586647 9781475586640 |
ISSN: | 1018-5941 |
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author | Kumhof, Michael |
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discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
discipline_str_mv | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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id | DE-604.BV048358288 |
illustrated | Not Illustrated |
index_date | 2024-07-03T20:14:04Z |
indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:35:52Z |
institution | BVB |
institution_GND | (DE-588)1013082-2 |
isbn | 9781475539974 1475539975 1475586647 9781475586640 |
issn | 1018-5941 |
language | English |
oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033737524 |
oclc_num | 815561883 1337123320 |
open_access_boolean | |
owner | DE-20 DE-824 DE-70 DE-155 DE-BY-UBR DE-29 DE-22 DE-BY-UBG DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-1102 DE-703 DE-859 DE-706 DE-384 DE-860 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-Aug4 DE-1049 DE-12 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM |
owner_facet | DE-20 DE-824 DE-70 DE-155 DE-BY-UBR DE-29 DE-22 DE-BY-UBG DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-1102 DE-703 DE-859 DE-706 DE-384 DE-860 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-Aug4 DE-1049 DE-12 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM |
physical | 1 Online-Ressource (31 Seiten) |
psigel | ZDB-1-IMF ZDB-38-ESG ZDB-30-PAD ZDB-30-PBE ZDB-4-EBU ZDB-4-EBU FLA_PDA_EBU |
publishDate | 2012 |
publishDateSearch | 2012 |
publishDateSort | 2012 |
publisher | International Monetary Fund |
record_format | marc |
series2 | IMF Working Papers |
spelling | Kumhof, Michael Verfasser (DE-588)124774776 aut Oil and the world economy some possible futures Michael Kumhof and Dirk Muir Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2012 1 Online-Ressource (31 Seiten) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 12/256 1018-5941 This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult Online-Ausg BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Industries / General bisacsh Energy consumption / Econometric models fast Petroleum products / Prices / Econometric models fast Industrie Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Petroleum products Economic geography Petroleum products Prices Econometric models Energy consumption Econometric models Muir, Dirk Sonstige (DE-588)131390813 oth Internationaler Währungsfonds Sonstige (DE-588)1013082-2 oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/20062-9781475586640/20062-9781475586640/20062-9781475586640.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
spellingShingle | Kumhof, Michael Oil and the world economy some possible futures BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Industries / General bisacsh Energy consumption / Econometric models fast Petroleum products / Prices / Econometric models fast Industrie Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Petroleum products Economic geography Petroleum products Prices Econometric models Energy consumption Econometric models |
title | Oil and the world economy some possible futures |
title_auth | Oil and the world economy some possible futures |
title_exact_search | Oil and the world economy some possible futures |
title_exact_search_txtP | Oil and the world economy some possible futures |
title_full | Oil and the world economy some possible futures Michael Kumhof and Dirk Muir |
title_fullStr | Oil and the world economy some possible futures Michael Kumhof and Dirk Muir |
title_full_unstemmed | Oil and the world economy some possible futures Michael Kumhof and Dirk Muir |
title_short | Oil and the world economy |
title_sort | oil and the world economy some possible futures |
title_sub | some possible futures |
topic | BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Industries / General bisacsh Energy consumption / Econometric models fast Petroleum products / Prices / Econometric models fast Industrie Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Petroleum products Economic geography Petroleum products Prices Econometric models Energy consumption Econometric models |
topic_facet | BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Industries / General Energy consumption / Econometric models Petroleum products / Prices / Econometric models Industrie Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Petroleum products Economic geography Petroleum products Prices Econometric models Energy consumption Econometric models |
url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/20062-9781475586640/20062-9781475586640/20062-9781475586640.xml |
work_keys_str_mv | AT kumhofmichael oilandtheworldeconomysomepossiblefutures AT muirdirk oilandtheworldeconomysomepossiblefutures AT internationalerwahrungsfonds oilandtheworldeconomysomepossiblefutures |