How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles?:
We employ a duration model to study determinants of public debt cycles in 57 advanced and emerging economies over the 1960-2014 period, with a particular focus on the impact of financial cycles. The results suggest that the association between financial and debt cycles is asymmetric. Debt expansions...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2015
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| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers: Working Paper No. 15 / 248
|
| Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | We employ a duration model to study determinants of public debt cycles in 57 advanced and emerging economies over the 1960-2014 period, with a particular focus on the impact of financial cycles. The results suggest that the association between financial and debt cycles is asymmetric. Debt expansions preceded by overheating in credit and financial markets tend to last longer than other expansions, but there is no significant association between financial cycles and debt contractions. There is strong evidence of duration dependence in both phases of the cycle, with the likelihood of expansions and contractions to end increasing with the length of their respective spells. Higher initial level of debt increases the spell of contractions (persistence of adjustment effort hypothesis) and reduces the spell of expansions (debt sustainability hypothesis). This result is robust to the inclusion of global factors, openness, political stability, and debt crisis indicators as additional controls |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (33 p) |
| ISBN: | 1513511645 9781513511641 |
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| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:37Z |
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| spelling | Poghosyan, Tigran Verfasser aut How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles? Poghosyan, Tigran Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2015 1 Online-Ressource (33 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers: Working Paper No. 15 / 248 We employ a duration model to study determinants of public debt cycles in 57 advanced and emerging economies over the 1960-2014 period, with a particular focus on the impact of financial cycles. The results suggest that the association between financial and debt cycles is asymmetric. Debt expansions preceded by overheating in credit and financial markets tend to last longer than other expansions, but there is no significant association between financial cycles and debt contractions. There is strong evidence of duration dependence in both phases of the cycle, with the likelihood of expansions and contractions to end increasing with the length of their respective spells. Higher initial level of debt increases the spell of contractions (persistence of adjustment effort hypothesis) and reduces the spell of expansions (debt sustainability hypothesis). This result is robust to the inclusion of global factors, openness, political stability, and debt crisis indicators as additional controls Online-Ausg http://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/22960-9781513511641/22960-9781513511641/22960-9781513511641.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Poghosyan, Tigran How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles? |
| title | How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles? |
| title_auth | How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles? |
| title_exact_search | How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles? |
| title_exact_search_txtP | How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles? |
| title_full | How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles? Poghosyan, Tigran |
| title_fullStr | How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles? Poghosyan, Tigran |
| title_full_unstemmed | How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles? Poghosyan, Tigran |
| title_short | How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles? |
| title_sort | how do public debt cycles interact with financial cycles |
| url | http://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/22960-9781513511641/22960-9781513511641/22960-9781513511641.xml |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT poghosyantigran howdopublicdebtcyclesinteractwithfinancialcycles |