Verfügbarkeit: Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops

Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops: Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other?

We identify episodes of sudden stops in emerging economies and estimate the probability to observe them. Sudden stops are more likely when global growth falters, risk aversion in financial markets rises, and vulnerabilities in the external and financial sectors increase. However, the significance of...

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1. Verfasser:	Comelli, Fabio (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2015
Schriftenreihe:	IMF Working Papers: Working Paper No. 15 / 138
Online-Zugang:	UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext
Zusammenfassung:	We identify episodes of sudden stops in emerging economies and estimate the probability to observe them. Sudden stops are more likely when global growth falters, risk aversion in financial markets rises, and vulnerabilities in the external and financial sectors increase. However, the significance of the explanatory variables vary across regions. In Latin America and Eastern Europe, gross capital inflows are more responsive to changes in global growth than in Asia. Trade linkages tend to be more important than financial linkages in Eastern Europe, while in Asia and Latin America the opposite is true. The model captures only a third of sudden stops outside the estimation sample, but issues reliable sudden stop signals
Beschreibung:	1 Online-Ressource (34 p)
ISBN:	1513563440 9781513563442

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spelling	Comelli, Fabio Verfasser aut Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other? Comelli, Fabio Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2015 1 Online-Ressource (34 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers: Working Paper No. 15 / 138 We identify episodes of sudden stops in emerging economies and estimate the probability to observe them. Sudden stops are more likely when global growth falters, risk aversion in financial markets rises, and vulnerabilities in the external and financial sectors increase. However, the significance of the explanatory variables vary across regions. In Latin America and Eastern Europe, gross capital inflows are more responsive to changes in global growth than in Asia. Trade linkages tend to be more important than financial linkages in Eastern Europe, while in Asia and Latin America the opposite is true. The model captures only a third of sudden stops outside the estimation sample, but issues reliable sudden stop signals Online-Ausg http://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/22633-9781513563442/22633-9781513563442/22633-9781513563442.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext
spellingShingle	Comelli, Fabio Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other?
title	Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other?
title_auth	Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other?
title_exact_search	Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other?
title_exact_search_txtP	Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other?
title_full	Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other? Comelli, Fabio
title_fullStr	Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other? Comelli, Fabio
title_full_unstemmed	Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other? Comelli, Fabio
title_short	Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops
title_sort	estimation and out of sample prediction of sudden stops do regions of emerging markets behave differently from each other
title_sub	Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other?
url	http://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/22633-9781513563442/22633-9781513563442/22633-9781513563442.xml
work_keys_str_mv	AT comellifabio estimationandoutofsamplepredictionofsuddenstopsdoregionsofemergingmarketsbehavedifferentlyfromeachother

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