Fair Weather or Foul?: The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño
This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to E...
Gespeichert in:
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2015
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 15/89 |
| Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to El Niño shocks but also indirect effects through thirdmarkets. We contribute to the climate-macroeconomy literature by exploiting exogenous variation in El Niño weather events over time, and their impact on different regions crosssectionally, to causatively identify the effects of El Niño shocks on growth, inflation, energy and non-fuel commodity prices. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to El Niño shocks. While Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Niño shock, for other countries (including the United States and European region), an El Niño occurrence has a growth-enhancing effect. Furthermore, most countries in our sample experience short-run inflationary pressures as both energy and non-fuel commodity prices increase. Given these findings, macroeconomic policy formulation should take into consideration the likelihood and effects of El Niño weather episodes |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (30 p) |
| ISBN: | 147553549X 9781475535495 |
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| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:36Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:35:47Z |
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| series2 | IMF Working Papers |
| spelling | Cashin, Paul Verfasser aut Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño Cashin, Paul Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2015 1 Online-Ressource (30 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 15/89 This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to El Niño shocks but also indirect effects through thirdmarkets. We contribute to the climate-macroeconomy literature by exploiting exogenous variation in El Niño weather events over time, and their impact on different regions crosssectionally, to causatively identify the effects of El Niño shocks on growth, inflation, energy and non-fuel commodity prices. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to El Niño shocks. While Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Niño shock, for other countries (including the United States and European region), an El Niño occurrence has a growth-enhancing effect. Furthermore, most countries in our sample experience short-run inflationary pressures as both energy and non-fuel commodity prices increase. Given these findings, macroeconomic policy formulation should take into consideration the likelihood and effects of El Niño weather episodes Online-Ausg Mohaddes, Kamiar Sonstige oth Raissi, Mehdi Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/22476-9781475535495/22476-9781475535495/22476-9781475535495.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Cashin, Paul Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño |
| title | Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño |
| title_auth | Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño |
| title_exact_search | Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño |
| title_full | Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño Cashin, Paul |
| title_fullStr | Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño Cashin, Paul |
| title_full_unstemmed | Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño Cashin, Paul |
| title_short | Fair Weather or Foul? |
| title_sort | fair weather or foul the macroeconomic effects of el nino |
| title_sub | The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/22476-9781475535495/22476-9781475535495/22476-9781475535495.xml |
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