Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy:
Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that countr...
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
20150123
|
| Ausgabe: | Grigoli, Francesco ; Herman, Alexander ; Swiston, Andrew ; Di Bella, Gabriel ed |
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 15/14 |
| Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable ex ante based on characteristics like output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from typical monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to output gap revisions. These revisions explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (35 p) |
| ISBN: | 1484325834 9781484325834 |
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| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:36Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:35:46Z |
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| record_format | marc |
| series2 | IMF Working Papers |
| spelling | Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy Grigoli, Francesco ; Herman, Alexander ; Swiston, Andrew ; Di Bella, Gabriel ed Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 20150123 1 Online-Ressource (35 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 15/14 Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable ex ante based on characteristics like output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from typical monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to output gap revisions. These revisions explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions Online-Ausg http://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/22274-9781498393454/22274-9781498393454/22274-9781498393454.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy |
| title | Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy |
| title_auth | Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy |
| title_exact_search | Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy |
| title_full | Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy |
| title_fullStr | Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy |
| title_short | Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy |
| title_sort | output gap uncertainty and real time monetary policy |
| url | http://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/22274-9781498393454/22274-9781498393454/22274-9781498393454.xml |