Verfügbarkeit: Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation

Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation:

How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of...

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1. Verfasser:	Beidas-Strom, Samya (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2014
Schriftenreihe:	IMF Working Papers: Working Paper No. 14 / 218
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Zusammenfassung:	How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market � la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks
Beschreibung:	1 Online-Ressource (34 p)
ISBN:	1498333486 9781498333481

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spelling	Beidas-Strom, Samya Verfasser aut Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation Beidas-Strom, Samya Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2014 1 Online-Ressource (34 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers: Working Paper No. 14 / 218 How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market � la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks Online-Ausg Pescatori, Andrea Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/22184-9781498333481/22184-9781498333481/22184-9781498333481.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext
spellingShingle	Beidas-Strom, Samya Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation
title	Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation
title_auth	Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation
title_exact_search	Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation
title_exact_search_txtP	Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation
title_full	Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation Beidas-Strom, Samya
title_fullStr	Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation Beidas-Strom, Samya
title_full_unstemmed	Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation Beidas-Strom, Samya
title_short	Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation
title_sort	oil price volatility and the role of speculation
url	http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/22184-9781498333481/22184-9781498333481/22184-9781498333481.xml
work_keys_str_mv	AT beidasstromsamya oilpricevolatilityandtheroleofspeculation AT pescatoriandrea oilpricevolatilityandtheroleofspeculation

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