The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa: Some Facts and Possible Explanations
Anecdotal evidence suggests that the economies of South Africa and its neighbors (Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe) are tightly integrated with each other. There are important institutional linkages. Across the region there are also large flows of goods and capital, si...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2014
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Departmental Papers / Policy Papers
African Departmental Paper No. 14/03 |
| Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Anecdotal evidence suggests that the economies of South Africa and its neighbors (Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe) are tightly integrated with each other. There are important institutional linkages. Across the region there are also large flows of goods and capital, significant financial sector interconnections, as well as sizeable labor movements and associated remittance flows. These interconnections suggest that South Africa's GDP growth rate should affect positively its neighbors', a point we illustrate formally with the help of numerical simulations of the IMF's GIMF model. However, our review and update of the available econometric evidence suggest that there is no strong evidence of real spillovers in the region after 1994, once global shocks are controlled for. More generally, we find no evidence of real spillovers from South Africa to the rest of the continent post-1994. We investigate the possible reasons for this lack of spillovers. Most importantly, the economies of South Africa and the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa might have de-coupled in the mid-1990s. That is when international sanctions on South Africa ended and the country re-integrated with the global economy, while growth in the rest of the continent accelerated due to a combination of domestic and external factors |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (39 p) |
| ISBN: | 1484363442 9781484363447 |
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| owner | DE-20 DE-824 DE-70 DE-155 DE-BY-UBR DE-29 DE-22 DE-BY-UBG DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-1102 DE-703 DE-859 DE-706 DE-384 DE-860 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-Aug4 DE-1049 DE-12 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM |
| owner_facet | DE-20 DE-824 DE-70 DE-155 DE-BY-UBR DE-29 DE-22 DE-BY-UBG DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-1102 DE-703 DE-859 DE-706 DE-384 DE-860 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-Aug4 DE-1049 DE-12 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (39 p) |
| psigel | ZDB-1-IMF |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publishDateSearch | 2014 |
| publishDateSort | 2014 |
| publisher | International Monetary Fund |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Departmental Papers / Policy Papers |
| spelling | Basdevant, Olivier Verfasser aut The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa Some Facts and Possible Explanations Basdevant, Olivier Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2014 1 Online-Ressource (39 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Departmental Papers / Policy Papers African Departmental Paper No. 14/03 Anecdotal evidence suggests that the economies of South Africa and its neighbors (Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe) are tightly integrated with each other. There are important institutional linkages. Across the region there are also large flows of goods and capital, significant financial sector interconnections, as well as sizeable labor movements and associated remittance flows. These interconnections suggest that South Africa's GDP growth rate should affect positively its neighbors', a point we illustrate formally with the help of numerical simulations of the IMF's GIMF model. However, our review and update of the available econometric evidence suggest that there is no strong evidence of real spillovers in the region after 1994, once global shocks are controlled for. More generally, we find no evidence of real spillovers from South Africa to the rest of the continent post-1994. We investigate the possible reasons for this lack of spillovers. Most importantly, the economies of South Africa and the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa might have de-coupled in the mid-1990s. That is when international sanctions on South Africa ended and the country re-integrated with the global economy, while growth in the rest of the continent accelerated due to a combination of domestic and external factors Online-Ausg Jonelis, Andrew Sonstige oth Mircheva, Borislava Sonstige oth Slavov, Slavi T. Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF087/21245-9781484363447/21245-9781484363447/21245-9781484363447.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Basdevant, Olivier The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa Some Facts and Possible Explanations |
| title | The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa Some Facts and Possible Explanations |
| title_auth | The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa Some Facts and Possible Explanations |
| title_exact_search | The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa Some Facts and Possible Explanations |
| title_exact_search_txtP | The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa Some Facts and Possible Explanations |
| title_full | The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa Some Facts and Possible Explanations Basdevant, Olivier |
| title_fullStr | The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa Some Facts and Possible Explanations Basdevant, Olivier |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa Some Facts and Possible Explanations Basdevant, Olivier |
| title_short | The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa |
| title_sort | the mystery of missing real spillovers in southern africa some facts and possible explanations |
| title_sub | Some Facts and Possible Explanations |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF087/21245-9781484363447/21245-9781484363447/21245-9781484363447.xml |
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