Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies:
We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29 EMs between January 1995 and December 2012. Stronger real GDP growth rates and higher...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2014
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 14/65 |
| Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29 EMs between January 1995 and December 2012. Stronger real GDP growth rates and higher net foreign assets significantly reduce the probability of experiencing a currency crisis, while high levels of credit to the private sector increase it. We find that the logit and probit EWS out-of-sample performances are broadly similar, and that the EWS performance can be very sensitive both to the size of the estimation sample, and to the crisis definition employed. For macroeconomic policy purposes, we conclude that a currency crisis definition identifying more rather than less crisis episodes should be used, even if this may lead to the risk of issuing false alarms |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (26 p) |
| ISBN: | 1484355288 9781484355282 |
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| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:35Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:35:45Z |
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| spelling | Comelli, Fabio Verfasser aut Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies Comelli, Fabio Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2014 1 Online-Ressource (26 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 14/65 We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29 EMs between January 1995 and December 2012. Stronger real GDP growth rates and higher net foreign assets significantly reduce the probability of experiencing a currency crisis, while high levels of credit to the private sector increase it. We find that the logit and probit EWS out-of-sample performances are broadly similar, and that the EWS performance can be very sensitive both to the size of the estimation sample, and to the crisis definition employed. For macroeconomic policy purposes, we conclude that a currency crisis definition identifying more rather than less crisis episodes should be used, even if this may lead to the risk of issuing false alarms Online-Ausg http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/21272-9781484355282/21272-9781484355282/21272-9781484355282.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Comelli, Fabio Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies |
| title | Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies |
| title_auth | Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies |
| title_exact_search | Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies |
| title_full | Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies Comelli, Fabio |
| title_fullStr | Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies Comelli, Fabio |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies Comelli, Fabio |
| title_short | Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies |
| title_sort | comparing the performance of logit and probit early warning systems for currency crises in emerging market economies |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/21272-9781484355282/21272-9781484355282/21272-9781484355282.xml |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT comellifabio comparingtheperformanceoflogitandprobitearlywarningsystemsforcurrencycrisesinemergingmarketeconomies |