Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity:
Unlike conventional fiscal sustainability assessments, the Value-at-Risk approach developed in this paper explicitly captures the contribution of key risk variables to public sector vulnerability. In an illustrative application to Ecuador, the VaR approach confirms a significant risk of government f...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2003
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 03/79 |
| Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 URL des Erstveröffentlichers |
| Zusammenfassung: | Unlike conventional fiscal sustainability assessments, the Value-at-Risk approach developed in this paper explicitly captures the contribution of key risk variables to public sector vulnerability. In an illustrative application to Ecuador, the VaR approach confirms a significant risk of government financial failure stemming from the volatility and comovements of the exchange rate, interest rates, oil prices, and output. Although dollarization has helped attenuate fiscal vulnerability, the volatility of sovereign spreads and of oil prices remain major sources of risk for Ecuador''s public sector. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy implications, an evaluation of the methodology, and suggestions for future research |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (34 p) |
| ISBN: | 1451850220 9781451850222 |
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| spelling | Barnhill, Theodore M. Verfasser aut Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity Barnhill, Theodore M Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2003 1 Online-Ressource (34 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 03/79 Unlike conventional fiscal sustainability assessments, the Value-at-Risk approach developed in this paper explicitly captures the contribution of key risk variables to public sector vulnerability. In an illustrative application to Ecuador, the VaR approach confirms a significant risk of government financial failure stemming from the volatility and comovements of the exchange rate, interest rates, oil prices, and output. Although dollarization has helped attenuate fiscal vulnerability, the volatility of sovereign spreads and of oil prices remain major sources of risk for Ecuador''s public sector. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy implications, an evaluation of the methodology, and suggestions for future research Online-Ausg Kopits, George Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/00439-9781451850222/00439-9781451850222/00439-9781451850222.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Barnhill, Theodore M. Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity |
| title | Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity |
| title_auth | Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity |
| title_exact_search | Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity |
| title_full | Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity Barnhill, Theodore M |
| title_fullStr | Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity Barnhill, Theodore M |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity Barnhill, Theodore M |
| title_short | Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity |
| title_sort | assessing fiscal sustainability under uncertainity |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/00439-9781451850222/00439-9781451850222/00439-9781451850222.xml |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT barnhilltheodorem assessingfiscalsustainabilityunderuncertainity AT kopitsgeorge assessingfiscalsustainabilityunderuncertainity |