Verfügbarkeit: Short-Term Forecasting

Short-Term Forecasting: Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead

This paper presents a ""bridge model"" for short-run (one or two quarters ahead) forecasting of Italian GDP, relying on industrial production and survey indicators as key variables that can help in providing a real-time first GDP estimate. For a one- to two-year horizon, it formu...

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1. Verfasser:	Iacoviello, Matteo (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2001
Schriftenreihe:	IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 01/109
Online-Zugang:	UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 URL des Erstveröffentlichers
Zusammenfassung:	This paper presents a ""bridge model"" for short-run (one or two quarters ahead) forecasting of Italian GDP, relying on industrial production and survey indicators as key variables that can help in providing a real-time first GDP estimate. For a one- to two-year horizon, it formulates and estimates a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model of the Italian economy. Both the ""bridge"" and the BVAR model can be of great help in supplementing traditional judgmental or structural econometric forecasts. Given their simplicity and their good forecasting power, the framework may be usefully extended to other variables as well as to other countries
Beschreibung:	1 Online-Ressource (23 p)
ISBN:	1451853211 9781451853216

Internformat

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spelling	Iacoviello, Matteo Verfasser aut Short-Term Forecasting Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead Iacoviello, Matteo Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2001 1 Online-Ressource (23 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 01/109 This paper presents a ""bridge model"" for short-run (one or two quarters ahead) forecasting of Italian GDP, relying on industrial production and survey indicators as key variables that can help in providing a real-time first GDP estimate. For a one- to two-year horizon, it formulates and estimates a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model of the Italian economy. Both the ""bridge"" and the BVAR model can be of great help in supplementing traditional judgmental or structural econometric forecasts. Given their simplicity and their good forecasting power, the framework may be usefully extended to other variables as well as to other countries Online-Ausg http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/06208-9781451853216/06208-9781451853216/06208-9781451853216.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext
spellingShingle	Iacoviello, Matteo Short-Term Forecasting Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead
title	Short-Term Forecasting Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead
title_auth	Short-Term Forecasting Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead
title_exact_search	Short-Term Forecasting Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead
title_exact_search_txtP	Short-Term Forecasting Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead
title_full	Short-Term Forecasting Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead Iacoviello, Matteo
title_fullStr	Short-Term Forecasting Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead Iacoviello, Matteo
title_full_unstemmed	Short-Term Forecasting Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead Iacoviello, Matteo
title_short	Short-Term Forecasting
title_sort	short term forecasting projecting italian gdpone quarter to two years ahead
title_sub	Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead
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