Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea:
This paper develops a new forecasting framework for GDP growth in Korea to complement and further enhance existing forecasting approaches. First, a range of forecast models, including indicator- and pure time-series models, are evaluated for their forecasting performance. Based on the evaluation res...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2011
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| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 11/53 |
| Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 URL des Erstveröffentlichers |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper develops a new forecasting framework for GDP growth in Korea to complement and further enhance existing forecasting approaches. First, a range of forecast models, including indicator- and pure time-series models, are evaluated for their forecasting performance. Based on the evaluation results, a new forecasting framework is developed for GDP projections. The framework also generates a data-driven reference band for the projections, and is therefore convenient to update. The framework is applied to the current World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast period and the Great Recession to compare its performance to past projections. Results show that the performance of the new framework often improves the forecasts, especially at quarterly frequency, and the forecasting exercise will be better informed by cross-checking with the new data-driven framework projections |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (23 p) |
| ISBN: | 1455220973 9781455220977 |
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| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:26Z |
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| spelling | Zeng, Li Verfasser aut Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea Zeng, Li Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2011 1 Online-Ressource (23 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 11/53 This paper develops a new forecasting framework for GDP growth in Korea to complement and further enhance existing forecasting approaches. First, a range of forecast models, including indicator- and pure time-series models, are evaluated for their forecasting performance. Based on the evaluation results, a new forecasting framework is developed for GDP projections. The framework also generates a data-driven reference band for the projections, and is therefore convenient to update. The framework is applied to the current World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast period and the Great Recession to compare its performance to past projections. Results show that the performance of the new framework often improves the forecasts, especially at quarterly frequency, and the forecasting exercise will be better informed by cross-checking with the new data-driven framework projections Online-Ausg http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/11704-9781455220977/11704-9781455220977/11704-9781455220977.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Zeng, Li Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea |
| title | Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea |
| title_auth | Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea |
| title_exact_search | Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea |
| title_full | Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea Zeng, Li |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea Zeng, Li |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea Zeng, Li |
| title_short | Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea |
| title_sort | evaluating gdp forecasting models for korea |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/11704-9781455220977/11704-9781455220977/11704-9781455220977.xml |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zengli evaluatinggdpforecastingmodelsforkorea |