Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods:
This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number of in...
Gespeichert in:
1. Verfasser: | |
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Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
Sprache: | English |
Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2005
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Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 05/226 |
Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
Zusammenfassung: | This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number of interrelated factors, including the volatility of output, financial fragility, the endogenous response of the risk premium, and sudden stops in private capital flows. The vulnerability of external debt is sensitive to the determination of the exchange rate and to the pricing of traded goods. We show that fiscal policy can act in a preemptive manner to prevent the debt burden from rising significantly over the medium term. This requires flexibility in fiscal planning, which many emerging market economies lack. Emerging market economies therefore face a difficult trade-off between managing the risk of a debt crisis and pursuing other important fiscal policy objectives |
Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (36 p) |
ISBN: | 1451862458 9781451862454 |
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spelling | Karam, Philippe Verfasser aut Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods Karam, Philippe Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2005 1 Online-Ressource (36 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 05/226 This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number of interrelated factors, including the volatility of output, financial fragility, the endogenous response of the risk premium, and sudden stops in private capital flows. The vulnerability of external debt is sensitive to the determination of the exchange rate and to the pricing of traded goods. We show that fiscal policy can act in a preemptive manner to prevent the debt burden from rising significantly over the medium term. This requires flexibility in fiscal planning, which many emerging market economies lack. Emerging market economies therefore face a difficult trade-off between managing the risk of a debt crisis and pursuing other important fiscal policy objectives Online-Ausg Hostland, Doug Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/00433-9781451862454/00433-9781451862454/00433-9781451862454.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
spellingShingle | Karam, Philippe Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods |
title | Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods |
title_auth | Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods |
title_exact_search | Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods |
title_exact_search_txtP | Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods |
title_full | Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods Karam, Philippe |
title_fullStr | Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods Karam, Philippe |
title_full_unstemmed | Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods Karam, Philippe |
title_short | Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods |
title_sort | assessing debt sustainability in emerging market economies using stochastic simulation methods |
url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/00433-9781451862454/00433-9781451862454/00433-9781451862454.xml |
work_keys_str_mv | AT karamphilippe assessingdebtsustainabilityinemergingmarketeconomiesusingstochasticsimulationmethods AT hostlanddoug assessingdebtsustainabilityinemergingmarketeconomiesusingstochasticsimulationmethods |