An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts:
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2006
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 06/59 |
| Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the WEO forecasts for a very large cross section of countries, with particular emphasis on the recent recession and recovery. It assesses whether forecasts were unbiased and informationally efficient, and characterizes the process whereby WEO forecasts get revised as the time to the point of the forecast draws closer. Finally, the paper assess whether forecasts can be improved by combining WEO forecasts with the Consensus forecasts. The results suggest that the performance of the WEO forecasts is similar to that of the Consensus forecasts. While WEO forecasts for many variables in many countries meet basic quality standards in some, if not all, dimensions, the paper raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (108 p) |
| ISBN: | 1451863195 9781451863192 |
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| spelling | Timmermann, Allan Verfasser aut An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts Timmermann, Allan Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2006 1 Online-Ressource (108 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 06/59 The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the WEO forecasts for a very large cross section of countries, with particular emphasis on the recent recession and recovery. It assesses whether forecasts were unbiased and informationally efficient, and characterizes the process whereby WEO forecasts get revised as the time to the point of the forecast draws closer. Finally, the paper assess whether forecasts can be improved by combining WEO forecasts with the Consensus forecasts. The results suggest that the performance of the WEO forecasts is similar to that of the Consensus forecasts. While WEO forecasts for many variables in many countries meet basic quality standards in some, if not all, dimensions, the paper raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance Online-Ausg http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/00278-9781451863192/00278-9781451863192/00278-9781451863192.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Timmermann, Allan An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts |
| title | An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts |
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| title_exact_search | An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts |
| title_exact_search_txtP | An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts |
| title_full | An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts Timmermann, Allan |
| title_fullStr | An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts Timmermann, Allan |
| title_full_unstemmed | An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts Timmermann, Allan |
| title_short | An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts |
| title_sort | an evaluation of the world economic outlook forecasts |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/00278-9781451863192/00278-9781451863192/00278-9781451863192.xml |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT timmermannallan anevaluationoftheworldeconomicoutlookforecasts |