Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area?: Evidence From Out-Of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian Vars
We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money improves fo...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2008
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 08/53 |
| Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 URL des Erstveröffentlichers |
| Zusammenfassung: | We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money improves forecasting accuracy. The results are very robust with regard to alternative treatments of priors and sample periods. That said, there is also reason not to overemphasize the role of money. The predictive power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s. This cautions against using money-based inflation models anchored in very long samples for policy advice |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (29 p) |
| ISBN: | 1451869150 9781451869156 |
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| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:26Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:35:34Z |
| institution | BVB |
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| spelling | Österholm, Pär Verfasser aut Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence From Out-Of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian Vars Österholm, Pär Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2008 1 Online-Ressource (29 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 08/53 We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money improves forecasting accuracy. The results are very robust with regard to alternative treatments of priors and sample periods. That said, there is also reason not to overemphasize the role of money. The predictive power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s. This cautions against using money-based inflation models anchored in very long samples for policy advice Online-Ausg Berger, Helge Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/08946-9781451869156/08946-9781451869156/08946-9781451869156.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Österholm, Pär Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence From Out-Of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian Vars |
| title | Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence From Out-Of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian Vars |
| title_auth | Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence From Out-Of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian Vars |
| title_exact_search | Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence From Out-Of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian Vars |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence From Out-Of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian Vars |
| title_full | Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence From Out-Of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian Vars Österholm, Pär |
| title_fullStr | Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence From Out-Of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian Vars Österholm, Pär |
| title_full_unstemmed | Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence From Out-Of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian Vars Österholm, Pär |
| title_short | Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? |
| title_sort | does money growth granger cause inflation in the euro area evidence from out of sample forecasts using bayesian vars |
| title_sub | Evidence From Out-Of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian Vars |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/08946-9781451869156/08946-9781451869156/08946-9781451869156.xml |
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