Verfügbarkeit: Much Ado About Nothing?

Much Ado About Nothing?: Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdownon Thai Growth

External demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007. However, WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in housing and credit markets, and high oil prices. While the share of Thai exports to the...

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1. Verfasser:	Aiyar, Shekhar (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2008
Schriftenreihe:	IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 08/140
Online-Zugang:	UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext
Zusammenfassung:	External demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007. However, WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in housing and credit markets, and high oil prices. While the share of Thai exports to the US has fallen in recent years, the US remains Thailand''s largest export destination. We use a small structural model and Bayesian estimation to assess the possible impact of a U.S. slowdown on Thai growth. We find that a 1 percent slowdown in U.S. growth in 2008-relative to the baseline forecast-could have an upper-bound impact on Thai GDP growth of 0.9 percentage points
Beschreibung:	1 Online-Ressource (18 p)
ISBN:	1451869983 9781451869989

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spelling	Aiyar, Shekhar Verfasser aut Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdownon Thai Growth Aiyar, Shekhar Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2008 1 Online-Ressource (18 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 08/140 External demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007. However, WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in housing and credit markets, and high oil prices. While the share of Thai exports to the US has fallen in recent years, the US remains Thailand''s largest export destination. We use a small structural model and Bayesian estimation to assess the possible impact of a U.S. slowdown on Thai growth. We find that a 1 percent slowdown in U.S. growth in 2008-relative to the baseline forecast-could have an upper-bound impact on Thai GDP growth of 0.9 percentage points Online-Ausg Tchakarov, Ivan Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/09297-9781451869989/09297-9781451869989/09297-9781451869989.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext
spellingShingle	Aiyar, Shekhar Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdownon Thai Growth
title	Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdownon Thai Growth
title_auth	Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdownon Thai Growth
title_exact_search	Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdownon Thai Growth
title_exact_search_txtP	Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdownon Thai Growth
title_full	Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdownon Thai Growth Aiyar, Shekhar
title_fullStr	Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdownon Thai Growth Aiyar, Shekhar
title_full_unstemmed	Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdownon Thai Growth Aiyar, Shekhar
title_short	Much Ado About Nothing?
title_sort	much ado about nothing estimating the impact of a u s slowdownon thai growth
title_sub	Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdownon Thai Growth
url	http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/09297-9781451869989/09297-9781451869989/09297-9781451869989.xml
work_keys_str_mv	AT aiyarshekhar muchadoaboutnothingestimatingtheimpactofausslowdownonthaigrowth AT tchakarovivan muchadoaboutnothingestimatingtheimpactofausslowdownonthaigrowth

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