Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited: Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects
Trade theories covering Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) are as diverse as the literature in search of their empirical support. To account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing PTA theories, we introduce Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to the PTA literature. BMA m...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2008
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 08/66 |
| Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Trade theories covering Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) are as diverse as the literature in search of their empirical support. To account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing PTA theories, we introduce Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to the PTA literature. BMA minimizes the sum of Type I and Type II error, the mean squared error, and generates predictive distributions with optimal predictive performance. Once model uncertainty is addressed as part of the empirical strategy, we report clear evidence of Trade Creation, Trade Diversion, and Open Bloc effects. After controlling for natural trading partner effects, Trade Creation is weaker - except for the EU. To calculate the actual effects of PTAs on trade flows we show that the analysis must be comprehensive: it must control for Trade Creation and Diversion as well as all possible PTAs. Several prominent control variables are also shown to be robustly related to Trade Creation; they relate to factor endowments and economic policy |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (30 p) |
| ISBN: | 1451869282 9781451869286 |
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| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:25Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:35:33Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 1451869282 9781451869286 |
| language | English |
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| record_format | marc |
| series2 | IMF Working Papers |
| spelling | Papageorgiou, Chris Verfasser aut Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects Papageorgiou, Chris Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2008 1 Online-Ressource (30 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 08/66 Trade theories covering Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) are as diverse as the literature in search of their empirical support. To account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing PTA theories, we introduce Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to the PTA literature. BMA minimizes the sum of Type I and Type II error, the mean squared error, and generates predictive distributions with optimal predictive performance. Once model uncertainty is addressed as part of the empirical strategy, we report clear evidence of Trade Creation, Trade Diversion, and Open Bloc effects. After controlling for natural trading partner effects, Trade Creation is weaker - except for the EU. To calculate the actual effects of PTAs on trade flows we show that the analysis must be comprehensive: it must control for Trade Creation and Diversion as well as all possible PTAs. Several prominent control variables are also shown to be robustly related to Trade Creation; they relate to factor endowments and economic policy Online-Ausg Eicher, Theo S. Sonstige oth Henn, Christian Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/09134-9781451869286/09134-9781451869286/09134-9781451869286.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Papageorgiou, Chris Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects |
| title | Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects |
| title_auth | Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects |
| title_exact_search | Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects |
| title_full | Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects Papageorgiou, Chris |
| title_fullStr | Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects Papageorgiou, Chris |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects Papageorgiou, Chris |
| title_short | Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited |
| title_sort | trade creation and diversion revisited accounting for model uncertainty and natural trading partner effects |
| title_sub | Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/09134-9781451869286/09134-9781451869286/09134-9781451869286.xml |
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