Verfügbarkeit: Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited

Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited: Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects

Trade theories covering Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) are as diverse as the literature in search of their empirical support. To account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing PTA theories, we introduce Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to the PTA literature. BMA m...

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1. Verfasser:	Papageorgiou, Chris (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2008
Schriftenreihe:	IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 08/66
Online-Zugang:	UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext
Zusammenfassung:	Trade theories covering Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) are as diverse as the literature in search of their empirical support. To account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing PTA theories, we introduce Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to the PTA literature. BMA minimizes the sum of Type I and Type II error, the mean squared error, and generates predictive distributions with optimal predictive performance. Once model uncertainty is addressed as part of the empirical strategy, we report clear evidence of Trade Creation, Trade Diversion, and Open Bloc effects. After controlling for natural trading partner effects, Trade Creation is weaker - except for the EU. To calculate the actual effects of PTAs on trade flows we show that the analysis must be comprehensive: it must control for Trade Creation and Diversion as well as all possible PTAs. Several prominent control variables are also shown to be robustly related to Trade Creation; they relate to factor endowments and economic policy
Beschreibung:	1 Online-Ressource (30 p)
ISBN:	1451869282 9781451869286

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spelling	Papageorgiou, Chris Verfasser aut Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects Papageorgiou, Chris Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2008 1 Online-Ressource (30 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 08/66 Trade theories covering Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) are as diverse as the literature in search of their empirical support. To account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing PTA theories, we introduce Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to the PTA literature. BMA minimizes the sum of Type I and Type II error, the mean squared error, and generates predictive distributions with optimal predictive performance. Once model uncertainty is addressed as part of the empirical strategy, we report clear evidence of Trade Creation, Trade Diversion, and Open Bloc effects. After controlling for natural trading partner effects, Trade Creation is weaker - except for the EU. To calculate the actual effects of PTAs on trade flows we show that the analysis must be comprehensive: it must control for Trade Creation and Diversion as well as all possible PTAs. Several prominent control variables are also shown to be robustly related to Trade Creation; they relate to factor endowments and economic policy Online-Ausg Eicher, Theo S. Sonstige oth Henn, Christian Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/09134-9781451869286/09134-9781451869286/09134-9781451869286.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext
spellingShingle	Papageorgiou, Chris Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects
title	Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects
title_auth	Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects
title_exact_search	Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects
title_exact_search_txtP	Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects
title_full	Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects Papageorgiou, Chris
title_fullStr	Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects Papageorgiou, Chris
title_full_unstemmed	Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects Papageorgiou, Chris
title_short	Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited
title_sort	trade creation and diversion revisited accounting for model uncertainty and natural trading partner effects
title_sub	Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects
url	http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/09134-9781451869286/09134-9781451869286/09134-9781451869286.xml
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