Verfügbarkeit: Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation?

Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation?: Evidence from Bayesian VARs

We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does s...

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1. Verfasser:	Österholm, Pär (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2008
Schriftenreihe:	IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 08/76
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Zusammenfassung:	We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does systematically improve out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. This holds for a long forecasting sample 1960-2005, as well for more recent subperiods, including the Volcker and Greenspan eras. However, the contribution of money to inflation forecasting accuracy is quantitatively limited and tends to be smaller in recent subperiods, in particular in models that also include information on real GDP growth and interest rates
Beschreibung:	1 Online-Ressource (17 p)
ISBN:	145186938X 9781451869385

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spelling	Österholm, Pär Verfasser aut Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs Österholm, Pär Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2008 1 Online-Ressource (17 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 08/76 We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does systematically improve out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. This holds for a long forecasting sample 1960-2005, as well for more recent subperiods, including the Volcker and Greenspan eras. However, the contribution of money to inflation forecasting accuracy is quantitatively limited and tends to be smaller in recent subperiods, in particular in models that also include information on real GDP growth and interest rates Online-Ausg Berger, Helge Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/09081-9781451869385/09081-9781451869385/09081-9781451869385.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext
spellingShingle	Österholm, Pär Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs
title	Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs
title_auth	Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs
title_exact_search	Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs
title_exact_search_txtP	Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs
title_full	Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs Österholm, Pär
title_fullStr	Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs Österholm, Pär
title_full_unstemmed	Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs Österholm, Pär
title_short	Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation?
title_sort	does money matter for u s inflation evidence from bayesian vars
title_sub	Evidence from Bayesian VARs
url	http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/09081-9781451869385/09081-9781451869385/09081-9781451869385.xml
work_keys_str_mv	AT osterholmpar doesmoneymatterforusinflationevidencefrombayesianvars AT bergerhelge doesmoneymatterforusinflationevidencefrombayesianvars

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