Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroe...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2008
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 08/143 |
| Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (49 p) |
| ISBN: | 1451870019 9781451870015 |
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| 520 | 3 | |a This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them | |
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| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:25Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:35:33Z |
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| record_format | marc |
| series2 | IMF Working Papers |
| spelling | Kose, M. Ayhan Verfasser aut Global Business Cycles Convergence or Decoupling? Kose, M. Ayhan Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2008 1 Online-Ressource (49 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 08/143 This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them Online-Ausg Otrok, Christopher Sonstige oth Prasad, Eswar Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/09201-9781451870015/09201-9781451870015/09201-9781451870015.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Kose, M. Ayhan Global Business Cycles Convergence or Decoupling? |
| title | Global Business Cycles Convergence or Decoupling? |
| title_auth | Global Business Cycles Convergence or Decoupling? |
| title_exact_search | Global Business Cycles Convergence or Decoupling? |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Global Business Cycles Convergence or Decoupling? |
| title_full | Global Business Cycles Convergence or Decoupling? Kose, M. Ayhan |
| title_fullStr | Global Business Cycles Convergence or Decoupling? Kose, M. Ayhan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global Business Cycles Convergence or Decoupling? Kose, M. Ayhan |
| title_short | Global Business Cycles |
| title_sort | global business cycles convergence or decoupling |
| title_sub | Convergence or Decoupling? |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/09201-9781451870015/09201-9781451870015/09201-9781451870015.xml |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kosemayhan globalbusinesscyclesconvergenceordecoupling AT otrokchristopher globalbusinesscyclesconvergenceordecoupling AT prasadeswar globalbusinesscyclesconvergenceordecoupling |