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Ghostbusting: Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?

This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the cyclical position of an economy, an (unobservable) output gap has important implications for economic analysis. I construct and compare common output gap measures for five European countri...

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1. Verfasser:	Billmeier, Andreas (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2004
Schriftenreihe:	IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 04/146
Online-Zugang:	UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 URL des Erstveröffentlichers
Zusammenfassung:	This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the cyclical position of an economy, an (unobservable) output gap has important implications for economic analysis. I construct and compare common output gap measures for five European countries. Since output above potential reflects domestic inflationary pressures, including a gap could improve the accuracy of autoregressive inflation forecasting. This assertion is tested in a simple simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for the period 1990-2002. The main conclusions are that an output gap rarely provides useful information and that there is no single best output gap measure across countries
Beschreibung:	1 Online-Ressource (35 p)
ISBN:	1451856679 9781451856675

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MARC


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spelling	Billmeier, Andreas Verfasser aut Ghostbusting Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters? Billmeier, Andreas Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2004 1 Online-Ressource (35 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 04/146 This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the cyclical position of an economy, an (unobservable) output gap has important implications for economic analysis. I construct and compare common output gap measures for five European countries. Since output above potential reflects domestic inflationary pressures, including a gap could improve the accuracy of autoregressive inflation forecasting. This assertion is tested in a simple simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for the period 1990-2002. The main conclusions are that an output gap rarely provides useful information and that there is no single best output gap measure across countries Online-Ausg http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/02816-9781451856675/02816-9781451856675/02816-9781451856675.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext
spellingShingle	Billmeier, Andreas Ghostbusting Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?
title	Ghostbusting Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?
title_auth	Ghostbusting Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?
title_exact_search	Ghostbusting Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?
title_exact_search_txtP	Ghostbusting Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?
title_full	Ghostbusting Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters? Billmeier, Andreas
title_fullStr	Ghostbusting Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters? Billmeier, Andreas
title_full_unstemmed	Ghostbusting Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters? Billmeier, Andreas
title_short	Ghostbusting
title_sort	ghostbusting which output gap measure really matters
title_sub	Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?
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