Leading Indicators of Currency Crises:

This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold va...

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
1. Verfasser: Kaminsky, Graciela Laura (VerfasserIn)
Format: Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 1997
Schriftenreihe:IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 97/79
Online-Zugang:UBW01
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Volltext
Zusammenfassung:This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning "signal" that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices
Beschreibung:1 Online-Ressource (43 p)
ISBN:1451955863
9781451955866

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