We Just Averaged Over Two Trillion Cross-Country Growth Regressions:
We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is distributed among many models, suggesting the superiority of BMA over any single model. Out-of-sample predictive results support that clai...
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1. Verfasser: | |
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Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
Sprache: | English |
Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
1999
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Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 99/101 |
Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
Zusammenfassung: | We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is distributed among many models, suggesting the superiority of BMA over any single model. Out-of-sample predictive results support that claim. In contrast with Levine and Renelt (1992), our results broadly support the more "optimistic" conclusion of Sala-i-Martin (1997b), namely, that some variables are important regressors for explaining cross-country growth patterns. However, the variables we identify as most useful for growth regression differ substantially from Sala-i-Martin's results |
Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (20 p) |
ISBN: | 1451852495 9781451852493 |
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spelling | Steel, Mark F. J. Verfasser aut We Just Averaged Over Two Trillion Cross-Country Growth Regressions Steel, Mark F. J Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 1999 1 Online-Ressource (20 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 99/101 We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is distributed among many models, suggesting the superiority of BMA over any single model. Out-of-sample predictive results support that claim. In contrast with Levine and Renelt (1992), our results broadly support the more "optimistic" conclusion of Sala-i-Martin (1997b), namely, that some variables are important regressors for explaining cross-country growth patterns. However, the variables we identify as most useful for growth regression differ substantially from Sala-i-Martin's results Online-Ausg Ley, Eduardo Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/07857-9781451852493/07857-9781451852493/07857-9781451852493.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
spellingShingle | Steel, Mark F. J. We Just Averaged Over Two Trillion Cross-Country Growth Regressions |
title | We Just Averaged Over Two Trillion Cross-Country Growth Regressions |
title_auth | We Just Averaged Over Two Trillion Cross-Country Growth Regressions |
title_exact_search | We Just Averaged Over Two Trillion Cross-Country Growth Regressions |
title_exact_search_txtP | We Just Averaged Over Two Trillion Cross-Country Growth Regressions |
title_full | We Just Averaged Over Two Trillion Cross-Country Growth Regressions Steel, Mark F. J |
title_fullStr | We Just Averaged Over Two Trillion Cross-Country Growth Regressions Steel, Mark F. J |
title_full_unstemmed | We Just Averaged Over Two Trillion Cross-Country Growth Regressions Steel, Mark F. J |
title_short | We Just Averaged Over Two Trillion Cross-Country Growth Regressions |
title_sort | we just averaged over two trillion cross country growth regressions |
url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/07857-9781451852493/07857-9781451852493/07857-9781451852493.xml |
work_keys_str_mv | AT steelmarkfj wejustaveragedovertwotrillioncrosscountrygrowthregressions AT leyeduardo wejustaveragedovertwotrillioncrosscountrygrowthregressions |