External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies: How High Liquidity Can offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion
This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff scored well in predicting the 1998 crisis out-of-sample; (ii) all three crisis episode...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
1999
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 99/88 |
| Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff scored well in predicting the 1998 crisis out-of-sample; (ii) all three crisis episodes can be well explained by a parsimonious set of core fundamentals and liquidity related variables; and (iii) the presence of an IMF-supported program significantly reduced the depth of crises. The results suggest that as a rule of thumb countries should hold reserves to the tune of short-term debt to avoid contagion-related crises, provided their current deficits are modest and their real effective exchange rates are not significantly misaligned |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (41 p) |
| ISBN: | 1451851146 9781451851144 |
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| id | DE-604.BV048347306 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:23Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:35:31Z |
| institution | BVB |
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| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (41 p) |
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| publishDate | 1999 |
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| spelling | Mulder, Christian B. Verfasser aut External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies How High Liquidity Can offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion Mulder, Christian B Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 1999 1 Online-Ressource (41 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 99/88 This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff scored well in predicting the 1998 crisis out-of-sample; (ii) all three crisis episodes can be well explained by a parsimonious set of core fundamentals and liquidity related variables; and (iii) the presence of an IMF-supported program significantly reduced the depth of crises. The results suggest that as a rule of thumb countries should hold reserves to the tune of short-term debt to avoid contagion-related crises, provided their current deficits are modest and their real effective exchange rates are not significantly misaligned Online-Ausg Bussière, Matthieu Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/02278-9781451851144/02278-9781451851144/02278-9781451851144.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Mulder, Christian B. External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies How High Liquidity Can offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion |
| title | External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies How High Liquidity Can offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion |
| title_auth | External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies How High Liquidity Can offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion |
| title_exact_search | External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies How High Liquidity Can offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion |
| title_exact_search_txtP | External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies How High Liquidity Can offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion |
| title_full | External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies How High Liquidity Can offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion Mulder, Christian B |
| title_fullStr | External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies How High Liquidity Can offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion Mulder, Christian B |
| title_full_unstemmed | External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies How High Liquidity Can offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion Mulder, Christian B |
| title_short | External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies |
| title_sort | external vulnerability in emerging market economies how high liquidity can offset weak fundamentals and the effects of contagion |
| title_sub | How High Liquidity Can offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/02278-9781451851144/02278-9781451851144/02278-9781451851144.xml |
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