Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models:
The paper estimates two time-varying parameter models of Chilean inflation: a Phillips curve model and a small open economy model. Their out-of-sample forecasts are compared with those of simple Box-Jenkins models. The main findings are; forecasts that include the pre-announced inflation target as a...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2000
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 00/162 |
| Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | The paper estimates two time-varying parameter models of Chilean inflation: a Phillips curve model and a small open economy model. Their out-of-sample forecasts are compared with those of simple Box-Jenkins models. The main findings are; forecasts that include the pre-announced inflation target as a regressor are relatively better; the Phillips curve model outperforms the small open economy model in out-of-sample forecasts; and although Box-Jenkins models outperform the two models for short-term out-of-sample forecasts, their superiority deteriorates in longer forecasts. Adding a Markov-switching process to the models does not explain much of the conditional variance of the forecast errors |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (54 p) |
| ISBN: | 1451857861 9781451857863 |
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| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:23Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:35:31Z |
| institution | BVB |
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| spelling | Nadal-De Simone, Francisco Verfasser aut Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models Nadal-De Simone, Francisco Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2000 1 Online-Ressource (54 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 00/162 The paper estimates two time-varying parameter models of Chilean inflation: a Phillips curve model and a small open economy model. Their out-of-sample forecasts are compared with those of simple Box-Jenkins models. The main findings are; forecasts that include the pre-announced inflation target as a regressor are relatively better; the Phillips curve model outperforms the small open economy model in out-of-sample forecasts; and although Box-Jenkins models outperform the two models for short-term out-of-sample forecasts, their superiority deteriorates in longer forecasts. Adding a Markov-switching process to the models does not explain much of the conditional variance of the forecast errors Online-Ausg http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/02570-9781451857863/02570-9781451857863/02570-9781451857863.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Nadal-De Simone, Francisco Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models |
| title | Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models |
| title_auth | Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models |
| title_exact_search | Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models |
| title_full | Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models Nadal-De Simone, Francisco |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models Nadal-De Simone, Francisco |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models Nadal-De Simone, Francisco |
| title_short | Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models |
| title_sort | forecasting inflation in chile using state space and regime switching models |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/02570-9781451857863/02570-9781451857863/02570-9781451857863.xml |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nadaldesimonefrancisco forecastinginflationinchileusingstatespaceandregimeswitchingmodels |