Mind the Gap: What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?
Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending on the preferences of the modeler. This model selection problem leads to a substantial...
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2001
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| Series: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 01/203 |
| Online Access: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Summary: | Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending on the preferences of the modeler. This model selection problem leads to a substantial degree of uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the output gap, which can reduce its usefulness as a policy tool. To overcome this problem, in this paper we attempt to insert some discipline into this search by providing two metrics-inflation forecasting and business cycle dating-against which different options can be evaluated using aggregated euro-area GDP data. Our results suggest that Gali, Gertler, and Lopez-Salido''s (2001) inefficiency wedge performs best in inflation forecasting and production function methodology dominates in the prediction of turning points. If, however, a unique methodology must be selected, the quadratic trend delivers the best overall results |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (36 p) |
| ISBN: | 1451874456 9781451874457 |
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| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:23Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:35:31Z |
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| series2 | IMF Working Papers |
| spelling | Ubide, Angel J. Verfasser aut Mind the Gap What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area? Ubide, Angel J Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2001 1 Online-Ressource (36 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 01/203 Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending on the preferences of the modeler. This model selection problem leads to a substantial degree of uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the output gap, which can reduce its usefulness as a policy tool. To overcome this problem, in this paper we attempt to insert some discipline into this search by providing two metrics-inflation forecasting and business cycle dating-against which different options can be evaluated using aggregated euro-area GDP data. Our results suggest that Gali, Gertler, and Lopez-Salido''s (2001) inefficiency wedge performs best in inflation forecasting and production function methodology dominates in the prediction of turning points. If, however, a unique methodology must be selected, the quadratic trend delivers the best overall results Online-Ausg Ross, Kevin Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/04635-9781451874457/04635-9781451874457/04635-9781451874457.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Ubide, Angel J. Mind the Gap What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area? |
| title | Mind the Gap What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area? |
| title_auth | Mind the Gap What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area? |
| title_exact_search | Mind the Gap What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area? |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Mind the Gap What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area? |
| title_full | Mind the Gap What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area? Ubide, Angel J |
| title_fullStr | Mind the Gap What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area? Ubide, Angel J |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mind the Gap What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area? Ubide, Angel J |
| title_short | Mind the Gap |
| title_sort | mind the gap what is the best measure of slack in the euro area |
| title_sub | What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area? |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/04635-9781451874457/04635-9781451874457/04635-9781451874457.xml |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ubideangelj mindthegapwhatisthebestmeasureofslackintheeuroarea AT rosskevin mindthegapwhatisthebestmeasureofslackintheeuroarea |