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Mind the Gap: What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?

Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending on the preferences of the modeler. This model selection problem leads to a substantial...

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1. Verfasser:	Ubide, Angel J. (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2001
Schriftenreihe:	IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 01/203
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Zusammenfassung:	Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending on the preferences of the modeler. This model selection problem leads to a substantial degree of uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the output gap, which can reduce its usefulness as a policy tool. To overcome this problem, in this paper we attempt to insert some discipline into this search by providing two metrics-inflation forecasting and business cycle dating-against which different options can be evaluated using aggregated euro-area GDP data. Our results suggest that Gali, Gertler, and Lopez-Salido''s (2001) inefficiency wedge performs best in inflation forecasting and production function methodology dominates in the prediction of turning points. If, however, a unique methodology must be selected, the quadratic trend delivers the best overall results
Beschreibung:	1 Online-Ressource (36 p)
ISBN:	1451874456 9781451874457

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spelling	Ubide, Angel J. Verfasser aut Mind the Gap What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area? Ubide, Angel J Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2001 1 Online-Ressource (36 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 01/203 Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending on the preferences of the modeler. This model selection problem leads to a substantial degree of uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the output gap, which can reduce its usefulness as a policy tool. To overcome this problem, in this paper we attempt to insert some discipline into this search by providing two metrics-inflation forecasting and business cycle dating-against which different options can be evaluated using aggregated euro-area GDP data. Our results suggest that Gali, Gertler, and Lopez-Salido''s (2001) inefficiency wedge performs best in inflation forecasting and production function methodology dominates in the prediction of turning points. If, however, a unique methodology must be selected, the quadratic trend delivers the best overall results Online-Ausg Ross, Kevin Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/04635-9781451874457/04635-9781451874457/04635-9781451874457.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext
spellingShingle	Ubide, Angel J. Mind the Gap What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?
title	Mind the Gap What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?
title_auth	Mind the Gap What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?
title_exact_search	Mind the Gap What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?
title_exact_search_txtP	Mind the Gap What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?
title_full	Mind the Gap What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area? Ubide, Angel J
title_fullStr	Mind the Gap What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area? Ubide, Angel J
title_full_unstemmed	Mind the Gap What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area? Ubide, Angel J
title_short	Mind the Gap
title_sort	mind the gap what is the best measure of slack in the euro area
title_sub	What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?
url	http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/04635-9781451874457/04635-9781451874457/04635-9781451874457.xml
work_keys_str_mv	AT ubideangelj mindthegapwhatisthebestmeasureofslackintheeuroarea AT rosskevin mindthegapwhatisthebestmeasureofslackintheeuroarea

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