Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy: Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography
Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central Bank (...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2006
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 06/41 |
| Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB)? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and clustering around informational hubs, as well as to country-specific economic conditions and traditions of independent central banking in the past. In large part, this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some systematic differences between analysts have been transitional and are indicative of learning, others are more persistent |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (42 p) |
| ISBN: | 1451863012 9781451863017 |
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| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:22Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:35:31Z |
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| spelling | Ehrmann, Michael Verfasser aut Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography Ehrmann, Michael Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2006 1 Online-Ressource (42 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 06/41 Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB)? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and clustering around informational hubs, as well as to country-specific economic conditions and traditions of independent central banking in the past. In large part, this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some systematic differences between analysts have been transitional and are indicative of learning, others are more persistent Online-Ausg Berger, Helge Sonstige oth Fratzscher, Marcel Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/02569-9781451863017/02569-9781451863017/02569-9781451863017.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Ehrmann, Michael Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography |
| title | Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography |
| title_auth | Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography |
| title_exact_search | Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography |
| title_full | Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography Ehrmann, Michael |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography Ehrmann, Michael |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography Ehrmann, Michael |
| title_short | Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy |
| title_sort | forecasting ecb monetary policy accuracy is still a matter of geography |
| title_sub | Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/02569-9781451863017/02569-9781451863017/02569-9781451863017.xml |
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