Verfügbarkeit: Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries

Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A ""Fan-Chart"" Approach

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using ""fan charts."" These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simu...

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1. Verfasser:	Celasun, Oya (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2006
Schriftenreihe:	IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 06/67
Online-Zugang:	UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext
Zusammenfassung:	This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using ""fan charts."" These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm for the path of public debt under realistic shock configurations, combining pure economic disturbances (to growth, interest rates, and exchange rates), the endogenous policy response to these, and the possible shocks arising from fiscal policy itself. The paper emphasizes the role of fiscal behavior, as well as the structure of disturbances facing the economy and due to fiscal policy, in shaping the risk profile of public debt. Fan charts for debt are derived from the ""marriage"" between the pattern of shocks on the one hand and the endogenous response of fiscal policy on the other. Applications to Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey are used to illustrate the approach and its limitations
Beschreibung:	1 Online-Ressource (54 p)
ISBN:	1451863276 9781451863277

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series2	IMF Working Papers
spelling	Celasun, Oya Verfasser aut Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries A ""Fan-Chart"" Approach Celasun, Oya Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2006 1 Online-Ressource (54 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 06/67 This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using ""fan charts."" These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm for the path of public debt under realistic shock configurations, combining pure economic disturbances (to growth, interest rates, and exchange rates), the endogenous policy response to these, and the possible shocks arising from fiscal policy itself. The paper emphasizes the role of fiscal behavior, as well as the structure of disturbances facing the economy and due to fiscal policy, in shaping the risk profile of public debt. Fan charts for debt are derived from the ""marriage"" between the pattern of shocks on the one hand and the endogenous response of fiscal policy on the other. Applications to Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey are used to illustrate the approach and its limitations Online-Ausg Debrun, Xavier Sonstige oth Ostry, Jonathan David Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/05416-9781451863277/05416-9781451863277/05416-9781451863277.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext
spellingShingle	Celasun, Oya Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries A ""Fan-Chart"" Approach
title	Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries A ""Fan-Chart"" Approach
title_auth	Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries A ""Fan-Chart"" Approach
title_exact_search	Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries A ""Fan-Chart"" Approach
title_exact_search_txtP	Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries A ""Fan-Chart"" Approach
title_full	Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries A ""Fan-Chart"" Approach Celasun, Oya
title_fullStr	Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries A ""Fan-Chart"" Approach Celasun, Oya
title_full_unstemmed	Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries A ""Fan-Chart"" Approach Celasun, Oya
title_short	Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries
title_sort	primary surplus behavior and risks to fiscal sustainability in emerging market countries a fan chart approach
title_sub	A ""Fan-Chart"" Approach
url	http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/05416-9781451863277/05416-9781451863277/05416-9781451863277.xml
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