How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts: Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth
This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998. The questions addressed are (1) How do forecast errors differ across industrialized and developing countries? (2) How well do forecasters predict recessions? (3) A...
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Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
Sprache: | English |
Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2000
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Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 00/77 |
Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
Zusammenfassung: | This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998. The questions addressed are (1) How do forecast errors differ across industrialized and developing countries? (2) How well do forecasters predict recessions? (3) Are forecasts efficient and unbiased? (4) How does private sector performance compare with that of international organizations? (5) Is forecaster discord a reliable predictor of forecast accuracy? Two key results emerge. First, the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished. Second, there is high degree of similarity between private forecasts and those of international organizations |
Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (32 p) |
ISBN: | 1451849982 9781451849981 |
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spelling | Loungani, Prakash Verfasser aut How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth Loungani, Prakash Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2000 1 Online-Ressource (32 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 00/77 This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998. The questions addressed are (1) How do forecast errors differ across industrialized and developing countries? (2) How well do forecasters predict recessions? (3) Are forecasts efficient and unbiased? (4) How does private sector performance compare with that of international organizations? (5) Is forecaster discord a reliable predictor of forecast accuracy? Two key results emerge. First, the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished. Second, there is high degree of similarity between private forecasts and those of international organizations Online-Ausg http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/03126-9781451849981/03126-9781451849981/03126-9781451849981.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
spellingShingle | Loungani, Prakash How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth |
title | How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth |
title_auth | How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth |
title_exact_search | How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth |
title_exact_search_txtP | How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth |
title_full | How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth Loungani, Prakash |
title_fullStr | How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth Loungani, Prakash |
title_full_unstemmed | How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth Loungani, Prakash |
title_short | How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts |
title_sort | how accurate are private sector forecasts cross country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth |
title_sub | Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth |
url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/03126-9781451849981/03126-9781451849981/03126-9781451849981.xml |
work_keys_str_mv | AT lounganiprakash howaccurateareprivatesectorforecastscrosscountryevidencefromconsensusforecastsofoutputgrowth |