Verfügbarkeit: Inflation Dynamics in FYR Macedonia

Inflation Dynamics in FYR Macedonia:

In this paper we study the dynamics of inflation in Macedonia, provide three forecasting tools and draw some policy conclusions from the quantitative results. We explore three forecasting methods for inflation. We use a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) for short-term, monthly forecasting. We also develop...

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1. Verfasser:	Shamloo, Maral (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2011
Schriftenreihe:	IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 11/287
Online-Zugang:	UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext
Zusammenfassung:	In this paper we study the dynamics of inflation in Macedonia, provide three forecasting tools and draw some policy conclusions from the quantitative results. We explore three forecasting methods for inflation. We use a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) for short-term, monthly forecasting. We also develop two quarterly models: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for a more structural model of inflation. The NKPC shows a significant effect of output gap and inflation expectations on current inflation, confirming that the expectations channel of monetary transmission mechanism is strong. In terms of forecast-error variance, we show that all three models do very well in one-period ahead forecasting
Beschreibung:	1 Online-Ressource (23 p)
ISBN:	1463927215 9781463927219

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spelling	Shamloo, Maral Verfasser aut Inflation Dynamics in FYR Macedonia Shamloo, Maral Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2011 1 Online-Ressource (23 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 11/287 In this paper we study the dynamics of inflation in Macedonia, provide three forecasting tools and draw some policy conclusions from the quantitative results. We explore three forecasting methods for inflation. We use a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) for short-term, monthly forecasting. We also develop two quarterly models: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for a more structural model of inflation. The NKPC shows a significant effect of output gap and inflation expectations on current inflation, confirming that the expectations channel of monetary transmission mechanism is strong. In terms of forecast-error variance, we show that all three models do very well in one-period ahead forecasting Online-Ausg http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/12344-9781463927219/12344-9781463927219/12344-9781463927219.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext
spellingShingle	Shamloo, Maral Inflation Dynamics in FYR Macedonia
title	Inflation Dynamics in FYR Macedonia
title_auth	Inflation Dynamics in FYR Macedonia
title_exact_search	Inflation Dynamics in FYR Macedonia
title_exact_search_txtP	Inflation Dynamics in FYR Macedonia
title_full	Inflation Dynamics in FYR Macedonia Shamloo, Maral
title_fullStr	Inflation Dynamics in FYR Macedonia Shamloo, Maral
title_full_unstemmed	Inflation Dynamics in FYR Macedonia Shamloo, Maral
title_short	Inflation Dynamics in FYR Macedonia
title_sort	inflation dynamics in fyr macedonia
url	http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/12344-9781463927219/12344-9781463927219/12344-9781463927219.xml
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