Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States:
U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation compens...
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2012
|
| Series: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 12/89 |
| Online Access: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Summary: | U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation compensation embedded in U.S. Treasury bonds. The estimated effect is larger for the post-crisis period, and robust to controlling for measures of liquidity risk premia. Oil price shocks are also correlated with the variance of longer-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers in the post-crisis period. These results are not attributable to looser monetary policy - oil price increases were associated with expectations of a faster monetary tightening after the crisis. Overall, the findings are consistent with some impact of commodity prices on long-term inflation expectations and/or on inflation rate risk |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (25 p) |
| ISBN: | 147550263X 9781475502633 |
Staff View
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| 520 | 3 | |a U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation compensation embedded in U.S. Treasury bonds. The estimated effect is larger for the post-crisis period, and robust to controlling for measures of liquidity risk premia. Oil price shocks are also correlated with the variance of longer-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers in the post-crisis period. These results are not attributable to looser monetary policy - oil price increases were associated with expectations of a faster monetary tightening after the crisis. Overall, the findings are consistent with some impact of commodity prices on long-term inflation expectations and/or on inflation rate risk | |
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| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:18Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:35:25Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 147550263X 9781475502633 |
| language | English |
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| series2 | IMF Working Papers |
| spelling | Celasun, Oya Verfasser aut Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States Celasun, Oya Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2012 1 Online-Ressource (25 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 12/89 U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation compensation embedded in U.S. Treasury bonds. The estimated effect is larger for the post-crisis period, and robust to controlling for measures of liquidity risk premia. Oil price shocks are also correlated with the variance of longer-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers in the post-crisis period. These results are not attributable to looser monetary policy - oil price increases were associated with expectations of a faster monetary tightening after the crisis. Overall, the findings are consistent with some impact of commodity prices on long-term inflation expectations and/or on inflation rate risk Online-Ausg Mihet, Roxana Sonstige oth Ratnovski, Lev Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/12711-9781475502633/12711-9781475502633/12711-9781475502633.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Celasun, Oya Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States |
| title | Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States |
| title_auth | Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States |
| title_exact_search | Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States |
| title_full | Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States Celasun, Oya |
| title_fullStr | Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States Celasun, Oya |
| title_full_unstemmed | Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States Celasun, Oya |
| title_short | Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States |
| title_sort | commodity prices and inflation expectations in the united states |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/12711-9781475502633/12711-9781475502633/12711-9781475502633.xml |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT celasunoya commoditypricesandinflationexpectationsintheunitedstates AT mihetroxana commoditypricesandinflationexpectationsintheunitedstates AT ratnovskilev commoditypricesandinflationexpectationsintheunitedstates |