The Future of Oil: Geology Versus Technology
We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has plateaued si...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2012
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 12/109 |
| Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has plateaued since 2005 despite historically high prices, and that spare capacity has been near historic lows. The technological view of oil expects that higher oil prices must eventually have a decisive effect on oil output, by encouraging technological solutions. It is supported by the fact that high prices have, since 2003, led to upward revisions in production forecasts based on a purely geological view. We present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in forecasting oil prices and oil output out of sample. Its point forecast is for a near doubling of the real price of oil over the coming decade. The error bands are wide, and reflect sharply differing judgments on ultimately recoverable reserves, and on future price elasticities of oil demand and supply |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (33 p) |
| ISBN: | 147550330X 9781475503302 |
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| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (33 p) |
| psigel | ZDB-1-IMF |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| publishDateSearch | 2012 |
| publishDateSort | 2012 |
| publisher | International Monetary Fund |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | IMF Working Papers |
| spelling | Chauvet, Marcelle Verfasser aut The Future of Oil Geology Versus Technology Chauvet, Marcelle Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2012 1 Online-Ressource (33 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 12/109 We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has plateaued since 2005 despite historically high prices, and that spare capacity has been near historic lows. The technological view of oil expects that higher oil prices must eventually have a decisive effect on oil output, by encouraging technological solutions. It is supported by the fact that high prices have, since 2003, led to upward revisions in production forecasts based on a purely geological view. We present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in forecasting oil prices and oil output out of sample. Its point forecast is for a near doubling of the real price of oil over the coming decade. The error bands are wide, and reflect sharply differing judgments on ultimately recoverable reserves, and on future price elasticities of oil demand and supply Online-Ausg Benes, Jaromir Sonstige oth Kamenik, Ondra Sonstige oth Kumhof, Michael Sonstige oth Laxton, Douglas Sonstige oth Mursula, Susanna Sonstige oth Selody, Jack G. Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/12779-9781475503302/12779-9781475503302/12779-9781475503302.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Chauvet, Marcelle The Future of Oil Geology Versus Technology |
| title | The Future of Oil Geology Versus Technology |
| title_auth | The Future of Oil Geology Versus Technology |
| title_exact_search | The Future of Oil Geology Versus Technology |
| title_exact_search_txtP | The Future of Oil Geology Versus Technology |
| title_full | The Future of Oil Geology Versus Technology Chauvet, Marcelle |
| title_fullStr | The Future of Oil Geology Versus Technology Chauvet, Marcelle |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Future of Oil Geology Versus Technology Chauvet, Marcelle |
| title_short | The Future of Oil |
| title_sort | the future of oil geology versus technology |
| title_sub | Geology Versus Technology |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/12779-9781475503302/12779-9781475503302/12779-9781475503302.xml |
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