Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey of Survey Studies

This paper presents a brief survey of the empirical literature on survey-based exchange rate expectations. The literature in general supports the presence of a non-zero risk premium and rejects the hypothesis of rational expectations. The crucial result is that, while short-run expectations tend to...

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Körperschaft: International Monetary Fund (VerfasserIn)
Format: Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 1990
Schriftenreihe:IMF Working Papers
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Zusammenfassung:This paper presents a brief survey of the empirical literature on survey-based exchange rate expectations. The literature in general supports the presence of a non-zero risk premium and rejects the hypothesis of rational expectations. The crucial result is that, while short-run expectations tend to move away from some long-run "normal" values, long-run expectations tend to regress toward them. If this nature of short-run expectations increases the volatility of exchange rate movements, there may be a basis for some official measure to minimize short-run exchange rate movements
Beschreibung:1 Online-Ressource (36 p)
ISBN:145197020X
9781451970203

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